Principals

1. Biden at tipping point
2. SCOTUS to rule on Trump immunity
3. Biden doubts grow post-debate
4. Trump camp says Biden is saying
5. Dem fundraising
6. Biden biographers on his debate
7. French elections
8. Chips investment in Florida

PDB: Justice Department to prosecute Boeing

Blinken speaking at Brookings … Bannon reports to prison ... Politico: Biden family pushes for ouster of top campaign aides

Biden’s campaign is defiant. Democrats aren’t convinced yet.

No top Democrats have demanded President Biden bow out, but there’s a visible split between those backing him enthusiastically and others now speaking in conditionals. Rep. Jamie Raskin stretched the latter bounds the furthest on Sunday when he described “very honest, and serious and rigorous conversations taking place” that may end with a different nominee. It’s also an open question how deep Democrats’ support runs: NBC News reported that leaders “including Reps. Hakeem Jeffries of New York, Jim Clyburn of South Carolina and Nancy Pelosi of California, have privately expressed concerns about his viability” while endorsing him in public. But many Democrats fear the alternative — a potentially ugly convention fight that likely ends with a Kamala Harris nomination — might be even more dangerous than staying the course.

Meanwhile, the Biden campaign has sent talking points to supporters on how to rebut their “panicked aunt,” “MAGA uncle,” or “self-important podcasters” (an apparent reference to the Obama vets at Pod Save America) when discussing Biden’s status. But the ultimate decision here is with Biden himself rather than the Biden campaign, and the New York Times reports his family is urging him to fight on while they gather at Camp David (apparently for a pre-planned Annie Liebovitz shoot). Their explanation for his poor performance: Aides failed to adequately prepare the four-time presidential and two-time vice-presidential candidate for his third debate against Donald Trump.

The Supreme Court will weigh in on Trump’s immunity claims

The Supreme Court will rule today on Donald Trump’s effort to escape his election subversion prosecution by arguing he is immune from criminal prosecution for actions he took while in the White House. The justices signaled skepticism about the “absolute immunity” claims during oral arguments, but their ultimate ruling may kick the case back to a lower court to distinguish between Trump’s official and private conduct. No matter the result, the dispute has likely allowed Trump to avoid a trial before the election — he petitioned the Supreme Court to take up the case 20 weeks ago, per Reuters. The case will join other bombshell rulings issued by the court at the end of last week: The justices gutted federal agencies’ power, ruled prosecutors overstepped in charging Jan. 6 defendants with obstruction, and allowed cities to ban homeless encampments.

Biden doubts grows post-debate, polls show

Nearly three quarters of registered voters (and 46% of Democrats) say Biden should not be running for president, according to a CBS News/YouGov poll conducted following last week’s debate. It also found that 72% do not believe Biden has the mental and cognitive health to serve as president, up from 65% less than a month prior (voters are split on whether Trump clears that bar). The Biden campaign spent the weekend highlighting post-debate surveys like this one from CNN that found 81% of debate watchers said it didn’t have an impact on their choice. But another from Morning Consult found 60% of voters believe Biden should be replaced as the nominee, while ex-Clinton pollster Stan Greenberg found Democratic leaners less likely to vote for Biden after his performance. “Biden looked like a deer in headlights,” one 2020 Biden voter in Michigan who is now leaning towards Trump told The Wall Street Journal.

Biden is staying — or so the Trump campaign says

The Trump and Biden campaigns agree on one thing: Joe Biden will remain atop the Democratic ticket, Semafor’s Shelby Talcott reports. Some top surrogates watching the debate last week from a private room in Atlanta began to joke that the Democrats might actually replace Biden. But it was an idea that “nobody actually took seriously,” one person said. During the last commercial break, some of Trump’s campaign team members packed into that room reiterated talking points for the surrogates ahead of descending on the spin room. One of the key points was that it is too late for Democrats to replace Biden. Democrats had picked him as their nominee — and the Trump campaign went out fighting to keep it that way.

Democrats tout money and organizing after debate mess

Democrats said they beat their fundraising records and met organizing goals after Thursday’s debate. Biden for President and the DNC hosted 1500 events, in swing and safe states; a watch party in Milwaukee poured beer named after Trump’s invective about the city. In a memo, they counted $14 million raised by small-dollar contributors around the debate, and “more than $27 million” by midday Saturday. Biden’s surrogates faced questions about the president’s shaky performance, and settled on a theme. “What we saw was not President Biden’s best night,” Maryland Gov. Wes Moore said in Milwaukee. On the other side of the state, Sen. Bernie Sanders rallied to help organize local Democratic parties. In an interview, he conceded Biden was “not a great debater” but could recover if the whole party talked more about his record.

— David Weigel

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Biden biographers reckon with debate

“The Biden I spoke with in January was very different from the Biden we saw on that stage Thursday night,” Biden biographer Evan Osnos told Semafor’s Max Tani in an interview. Osnos is among a small group of journalists, with left-leaning sympathies but very credible records, who have interviewed Biden in the White House and returned with reports that while he’s definitely older, he’s still pretty sharp and in charge. Franklin Foer, another profiler of the president, said that while he still thinks Biden “has the acuity to do the job” he feels “differently” about the president following Thursday night’s performance. The mainstream press’s shakiness on Biden, even among the journalists his campaign considers to be the most friendly, is another indication of the tectonic shift in the press corps about the coverage of Biden’s age, Max writes.

Macron looks to block Le Pen

Joe Biden isn’t the only world leader in trouble: French President Emmanuel Macron’s party urged voters to block Marine Le Pen’s National Rally after the far-right grouping secured a thumping first-round election victory. Macron’s party finished third and is now considering whether to ally with left-wing rivals to fence Le Pen’s candidates out in the second round. Markets reacted with relief, with traders apparently viewing Le Pen as unlikely to win a majority. Macron now faces “a bitterly painful choice,” Politico wrote: Try to keep Le Pen from power, or salvage his husk of a party. The result also makes clear that the “cordon sanitaire” keeping far-right parties from power across Europe may have done more harm than good, Martin Sandbu wrote in the Financial Times.

— Prashant Rao

Commerce offers boost to Florida chips project

The Biden administration is giving $6.7 million under the CHIPS and Science Act to fuel the construction of a facility in Palm Bay, Florida, according to an announcement shared early with Semafor. The money will go to Oregon-based Rogue Valley Microdevices, which is building a new fab in Palm Bay to boost its production of a key semiconductor technology known as microelectromechanical systems, or MEMS, used for defense, biomedical, and other applications. According to the Biden administration, this is the first investment under the 2022 semiconductor law that will go to a women- and minority-owned business.The announcement is the latest in a string of smaller investments in the domestic semiconductor ecosystem the administration has rolled out, after dolling out larger grants to the likes of TSMC and Intel.

— Morgan Chalfant

Beltway Newsletters

Playbook: Congressional Democrats are starting to talk about how they’ll be a check on Donald Trump should President Biden stay in the race and lose. “The way I’m talking to my donors is: The House is the last firewall, folks. We have to flip the House,” one vulnerable House Democrat said. “Ninety-nine percent of the people I talked to can’t get their credit card out fast enough.”

WaPo: Some legal experts expect the Supreme Court to issue a mixed ruling on Trump’s immunity claim. “My money is on a form of qualified immunity — some test to carve out that certain things are immune, certain things are not,” former Trump lawyer Timothy Parlatore said. “What exactly that test will be I’m not sure.”

Axios: Biden is now considering doing more interviews and “no-holds-barred press conferences” in order to quiet concerns about his age.

White House

President Biden has nothing on his public schedule except for his return from Camp David tonight. Vice President Harris is in Los Angeles without any public events scheduled.

Congress

Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., called on President Biden’s Cabinet to invoke the 25th Amendment to potentially remove him from office after his debate with Donald Trump.

Economy

The World Economic Forum is facing allegations of sexual harassment and discrimination against women and Black people. — WSJ

Courts

The Justice Department will charge Boeing with criminal fraud, giving the planemaker the option of pleading guilty or going to trial.

Outside the Beltway

Hurricane Beryl, expected to make landfall in the Caribbean this morning, is the earliest Category 4 hurricane on record and a sign that we’re in for an unusually busy hurricane season.

On the Trail

• Concern is growing in the top ranks of the Democratic Party that the leaders of President Biden’s campaign and Democratic National Committee aren’t taking the impact of his poor debate performance with Donald Trump seriously enough. – AP
• Members of Biden’s family privately trashed his campaign advisers at Camp David over the weekend, blaming them for his poor performance in the debate and urged him to fire or demote those in his political high command. — Politico
• The Biden campaign invoked longtime Democratic strategist James Carville in a fundraising text over the weekend, hours after he said in an interview that he didn’t expect Biden to be on the ballot on Election Day. Carville said he didn’t sign off on the text. — WaPo
• Trump’s vice presidential contenders are showing off their rich friends to help their case to be selected. — NYT

National Security

Several US military bases in Europe were put on heightened alert over the weekend with concerns about a terrorist attack on personnel or facilities. — CNN

Foreign Policy

Israelis are concerned that President Biden’s shaky debate performance may encourage Iran and its proxies in Gaza and Lebanon.

Technology

Owners of roughly a third of U.S. nuclear-power plants are in talks with tech companies to provide electricity to new data centers needed to meet the demands of an artificial-intelligence boom. — WSJ

Big Read

The Great Plains could rise in influence in November, Politico says. If Donald Trump retakes the White House, Republican North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum will be vice president or land an administration job. Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., could be senate majority leader if the GOP retakes the upper chamber. South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, despite her dog-killing issues, may land a federal appointment. Meanwhile, Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso is in line to be the No. 2 Republican in the Senate while Montana Sen. Steve Daines could become one of the most influential lawmakers due to his ties with Trump and Thune. Most of the region’s top Republicans emerged before Trump and have avoided the bomb-throwing style of recent times. “We’re normal,” said Sen. Mike Rounds of South Dakota. “It’s not a hard hard-right. We’re Ronald Reagan Republicans.”

Blindspot

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, according to data from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: Gold Star families speak out after President Biden says no US troops have died on his watch.

What the Right isn’t reading: Tim Scott, R-S.C., has benefited from mentors along the way, and he’s hoping for another helping hand.

Principals Team

Editors: Benjy Sarlin, Jordan Weissmann, Morgan Chalfant

Reporters: Kadia Goba, Joseph Zeballos-Roig, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

Steve Vladeck is an expert on federal courts and constitutional law and a professor at Georgetown University.