Principals

1. Biden digs in
2. An official’s warning
3. What Democrats can actually do
4. Why not Kamala?
5. WH vs. NYT
6. Gaza ceasefire talks
7. UK Labour

US added 206,000 jobs in June … WSJ: Trump may be gaining in battlegrounds … New York Magazine: ‘The Conspiracy of Silence to Protect Joe Biden’

Defiant Biden prepares for climactic interview

“I’m not going anywhere,” President Biden told a crowd at the White House yesterday at the end of unscripted remarks at a Fourth of July celebration. Amid a steady stream of criticism and calls from a handful of Democrats for him to step aside following his debate performance, he’s hitting the road today with a campaign appearance in Madison, Wis. that the campaign says will be focused on “democracy, our rights and freedoms, and our economy.” Then there’s the all-important interview with ABC’s George Stephanopoulos, which comes after Biden got tripped up during a Philadelphia radio interview when delivering a line about serving as vice president under Barack Obama. Meanwhile, scrutiny of the White House’s handling of questions about Biden’s wellbeing is intensifying; Biden told governors on Wednesday that he underwent a medical checkup following the debate, Politico reported, despite White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre earlier saying he hadn’t. The president told the same group of governors that he needs to get more sleep and work fewer hours, according to The New York Times. His campaign is feeling more donor pressure: a Disney heiress who has donated $50,000 to progressive causes this year told CNBC she would withhold funds to the Democrats until Biden stood aside.

Biden aide sounds an alarm

A “scared” government official with regular access to the West Wing is sounding an alarm, anonymously, about President Biden’s involvement in policy decisions: The anonymous official told Semafor’s Ben Smith that it’s unclear which decisions reach the president through an opaque circle of top aides, and voiced worries that some are being made “without him.” White House officials flatly rejected the suggestion. Biden “is in the middle of everything. He signs off on everything,” said Bruce Reed. It’s a sign of the Democratic Party’s growing panic that this call is coming, as they say, from inside the building.

David Weigel on what Democrats can do

Q: Can Democrats actually replace Biden before the convention?

A: Yes, if they really want to.

Q: How?

A: First, Biden would need to withdraw, and release his 3,904 delegates, who were selected last month. The newly unbound delegates would pick the new nominee. When Democrats speculate about a “mini-primary” or “open convention,” what they mean is that these delegates, along with the 37 “uncommitted” delegates and the eight won by candidates who dropped out already, could vote for whoever they wanted to.

Q: What’s the deadline?

A: It varies a bit by state, but the DNC begins on Aug. 19, and the nominating roll call would normally happen on Aug. 20.

Q: Didn’t I hear about a virtual roll call before that?

A: You probably did. After Ohio’s Republican secretary of state warned that the DNC would blow past the state’s (unusually early) ballot deadline, the party scheduled a “virtual roll call,” a break-glass plan to nominate Biden before the convention – currently planned for July 21. Ohio legislators actually moved the state’s deadline last month, irritating Democrats by adding some campaign finance reforms they’d opposed. So the early vote is totally optional.

Q: Could the Democrats run a different nominee than Harris?

A: They could, hence the ongoing parlor game about Popular Democrat TBD leading the party out of this quicksand. But only Harris, whose name is on the campaign’s organizing documents, would inherit the current Biden campaign and its resources. If the delegates rejected her, the Biden-Harris war chest could be donated to the DNC or a super PAC.

Behind the chatter about Harris

Vice President Kamala Harris is gaining support as the alternative Democratic nominee should President Biden bail on the race, especially following a CNN poll that showed her fairing better against Donald Trump than Biden. And why not? She’s the sitting Vice President, the obvious pick. But her favorable ratings are bad, and the Washington vibes are, if anything, worse. Her tenure has been marked by staff churn and a challenging portfolio that includes the root causes of migration, though Democrats have grown more positive on Harris as she’s effectively handled issues like abortion rights. “Underwhelming” was how one House Democratic described her communications style. But it’s also hard for critics to see a clear way around her, because she has firm supporters too. “I think women are treated differently, women of color more so,” one Democratic member told Semafor. Rep. Glenn Ivey, D-Md, told Semafor there’s no consternation about Harris running for president if Biden decides to call it quits. “In my circles, we’re all in for Joe. But if he decides not to run, it damn well better be Kamala.”

— Kadia Goba

White House fury at New York Times

The Biden team remains fixated on its longest-running adversary. Not Donald Trump — The New York Times. Senior Biden campaign communications adviser TJ Ducklo groused on X about an article that said Biden had privately told an ally he knew he might not be able to save his candidacy, while White House deputy press secretary Andrew Bates complained that the paper gave the White House less than ten minutes to comment. The campaign leaked a memo by campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon and campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez downplaying the results of a New York Times/Siena poll before the Times even published the results. That poll has been the subject of ire for President Biden’s reelection campaign for months; one person familiar with the situation told Semafor that Biden communications officials had attempted to get statements included in official poll result stories, which the paper does not normally allow.

— Max Tani

Is a Gaza ceasefire deal in reach?

Israel and Hamas may be nearing an agreement on a ceasefire deal. Following a call between President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a senior Biden administration official voiced new optimism about ongoing talks, telling reporters Thursday afternoon that there had been a “breakthrough” and that Hamas had shifted its position. “We believe there is a pretty significant opening here,” the official said, though they noted that a final deal was not immediately around the corner. Israeli officials and others “agreed that there had been progress but described it in more cautious terms,” The New York Times reported. The discussions revolve around the three-part proposal that Biden outlined earlier this year to achieve a ceasefire, secure the release of hostages and eventually pave the way for the reconstruction of Gaza. Israel’s intelligence chief is traveling to Qatar today for more talks, Bloomberg reported.

— Morgan Chalfant

Labour landslide in the UK

Britain’s opposition Labour Party will form the country’s next government after a landslide election victory — a result that runs against a rising tide of populist conservatism elsewhere. “For a hundred years the electoral system has favoured a unified right against a split left,” Daniel Finkelstein, who was adviser to two Conservative leaders, said in The Times of London. “Now the opposite holds.” Presumptive Prime Minister Keir Starmer did not inspire huge enthusiasm, but ran a disciplined campaign from the center, helping Labour win at least 412 out of a possible 650 seats. The tired, fractured, unpopular Conservative Party fell to its worst result in history: Prime Minister Rishi Sunak congratulated Starmer and said he would resign as party leader. “Tory England lies in ruins,” wrote UnHerd’s political editor. Starmer faces a pressing inbox, notably the faltering economy and high immigration which undermined Sunak’s rule. European leaders nevertheless welcomed Starmer’s victory, suggesting improved cooperation with Brussels, while Kyiv said the UK would remain a “reliable” partner.

— Tom Chivers

John McGuire ran against House Freedom Caucus chairman Bob Good in the Republican primary for Virginia’s 5th congressional district. Virginia recently certified McGuire as the winner.

• Climate change is fueling more hurricanes like Beryl.
• China races for dominance in Central Asia.
• Netanyahu is at increasing odds with the Israeli Military over ceasefire.