Americana

1. The Kamala opp files
2. Kamala’s polling upside
3. Veepstakes, part II
4. Menendez out
5. DNC’s nominating plan

Also: The last of the Biden ads.

Republicans left Milwaukee last week with a new ticket, a weak Democratic opponent, and big poll advantages for Donald Trump. They hadn’t walked out of a convention in such a strong position for 20 years. And their joy lasted for around 72 hours, as President Joe Biden abandoned his re-election bid and Vice President Kamala Harris immediately got in position to replace him.

Today’s edition is mostly about that story, unlike anything either party has dealt with, this far into a general election. I spent part of Saturday at a rainy rally outside the White House, where protesters chanted “Thank you, Joe, it’s time to go.” When I checked back in with them this week, they were over the moon: Harris had broken fundraising records, and gotten a chance at an unprecedented candidate reboot. Republicans weren’t miserable, but they were recalibrating.

Personal note: I’ll be heading out of the country at the end of the week. Before that, this feels like a good time for readers to ask questions about the state of the race — really, anything about the political scene — and for me to answer them. By Thursday at noon eastern time, please email dweigel@semafor.com with “question” somewhere in your subject line.

The Republican race to define Kamala Harris

Republicans finally know who they need to beat in 15 weeks: Vice President Kamala Harris. They’re still figuring out which version of Harris is running.

Will it be the “smart on crime” prosecutor who out-played a generation of Democratic talent in California while tacking to the center when needed? The flat-footed 2020 presidential candidate, whose “conversations” about progressive policies ended with zero progressive votes? The 2020 vice presidential winner whose rhetoric — “there is no vaccine for racism” — didn’t survive the anti-woke backlash?

As Harris secured the nomination, Republicans waded through all of it, pulling clips and quotes from a 20-year career that brought her into an unpopular Democratic White House. One emerging approach: Attack all of it, blowing up the prosecutor-versus-predator frame she laid out this week by portraying her as soft on crime, pathetically weak on immigration, and a handmaiden to presidential failure.

Poll: How voters see the Kamala Harris brand

New polling for the Democratic firm Blueprint, shared first with Americana, found Harris starting the general election with some strengths on social issues, and weaknesses with voters concerned about immigration and her progressive record.

Asked what issue they associated with Harris, “abortion and birth control” won out — 52% cited that, compared to 32% who cited “crime” and 29% who cited “immigration and the border.” Fifty percent of independents worried that Harris would let migrants cross the border illegally, and Latino voters trusted Trump more than Harris on immigration

“Voters have a very limited perception of Harris: liberal, prosecutor,” said Blueprint lead pollster Evan Roth Smith, who surveyed 1537 registered voters on July 21 and 22. “Their concerns are largely limited to standard concerns over being left-leaning generally, and some specific immigration concerns, all of which can be quickly assuaged by proactive early signaling.”

But Blueprint also found an opening for the vice president on economic issues. Harris and Trump were tied, 50-50, when voters were asked which candidate would do a better job “bringing down prices” on goods and services.

“The upside for Harris is huge: voters do not hold her accountable for Biden’s perceived failures on inflation, and she can run hard on economic messaging,” said Roth Smith.

Two new public polls, from Marist and Reuters/YouGov, found similar pictures for Harris, with a tied race and Democratic vulnerabilities on immigration.

The new veepstakes begin

Democrats angling for the second place on their national ticket started hitting talk shows this week, getting five to ten minutes at a go to attack Republicans and praise Harris. The presumptive nominee retained former Attorney Gen. Eric Holder to vet potential running mates; early speculation focused on Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly.

Two other governors, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, said Tuesday that they had not been asked to hand over information for a vet, but remained in the conversation. Beshear picked a fight with JD Vance over his description of Appalachia in “Hillbilly Elegy” — “he ain’t from here” — and mocked him for a joke at his first rallies about drinking Diet Mountain Dew and expecting to be called “racist” for it.

“Who drinks Diet Mountain Dew?” Beshear asked on CNN. Vance responded at a Monday rally: “It’s very weird to have a guy whose first job was at his dad’s law firm and inherited the governorship from his father to criticize my origin story.” On MSNBC, Walz took the same approach, emphasizing his own upbringing in a small town. “JD Vance knows nothing about small town America,” he said. “The golden rule there is mind your own damn business. Their policies are what destroyed rural America.”

We are excited to share that Semafor will launch in the Middle East this September, marking a major milestone in our global expansion strategy. Launching on September 16th, Semafor Gulf will feature original reporting and a thrice-weekly newsletter that will examine how the region’s transformation, and how its financial, business and geopolitical decisions shape the world – from culture and investment to infrastructure, climate, and technology. The platform will serve as a fresh, new destination for regional audiences, delivering Semafor’s signature independent, intelligent, and transparent journalism to leaders in the Gulf and around the world.

The new platform will be led by veteran journalist and editor Mohammed Sergie. Sergie, who began his career in the UAE, previously established the Saudi Arabia bureau for Dow Jones in 2008, covering the major economic, social, and political stories in the kingdom. He previously served as an editor at Bloomberg News where he shaped coverage of energy and commodities in the region and was the company’s sole reporter in Qatar.

Semafor Gulf will launch with a team of staff reporters as well as columnists covering Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, and will continue to expand through 2025.

Bob Menendez hits the exits

New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez will resign on Aug. 20, announcing the decision one week after being convicted on multiple corruption charges. The reason: A Senate ethics investigation that began after the conviction, as the disgraced senator began planning his appeal. “Factual matters before the ethics committee are not privileged,” Menendez explained in a letter to Gov. Phil Murphy, explaining that his aides were being called to testify, and that this might hurt his case — after his legal team had been successful at keeping some facts out of their New York courtroom, citing Senate debate and speech rules.

Menendez promised to continue fighting in court after his resignation. Murphy quickly promised to appoint a “temporary” replacement for the final months of Menendez’s term. That likely ruled out Rep. Andy Kim, who easily won the Democratic nomination to replace Menendez after the senator, and Murphy’s wife Tammy, both exited the race. Menendez filed for re-election as an independent, and did not say whether he’d pull his name from the ballot.

Democrats speed-run toward a Harris nomination

The Democratic National Committee moved closer to nominating Harris on Tuesday, hours after the vice president rapidly secured enough delegate commitments to win on the first ballot. In quickly-organized votes, state delegations to the DNC met and endorsed Harris. As of Tuesday afternoon, according to the Associated Press’s count, more than 3,100 of the 3,949 pledged delegates who will vote for the nominee had backed her, and a few dozen had abstained.

The DNC’s rules committee will meet Wednesday to approve a new voting process – a virtual vote designed to affirm the nominee before delegates arrive in Chicago next month. According to draft rules obtained by Americana, candidates for the nomination would have to file by the evening of July 27. Seventy-two hours later, they would need to prove that they were eligible to run, and that they had commitments from at least 300 delegates – no more than 50 each from any state. If only one candidate qualified, virtual voting would start on Aug. 1. If multiple candidates qualified, it would start later.

Only Harris had met those qualifications on Tuesday. But not every Democrat had endorsed her. Montana Sen. Jon Tester told reporters that he was still looking at the race, which is currently between Harris and author Marianne Williamson, who restarted her own campaign after the June 27 debate. Leaders of national Black Lives Matter called for the party to slow down, explaining to Reuters that they were “saying yes to having Black people be able to have the ability to weigh in.”

Ads

• American Bridge PAC, “Trump + January 6th.” The pro-Harris (previously pro-Biden) super PAC went up with this in the brief period when the nominee wasn’t certain. It’s an all-purpose attack on one of Trump’s weaknesses: His role in manifesting a mob on Jan. 6, described here by a Pennsylvania veteran who sees “nothing selfless” about how Trump operates. The closing message is “we can’t go back,” which Democrats believe will land stronger with Harris than it did under Biden.
• Hochman for District Attorney 2024, “We Deserve Safety.” Republicans are puzzling over which parts of the vice president’s criminal justice record to attack. In local races, the issue is simple: Challengers to progressive prosecutors blame them for higher crime and promise to undo their policies. Nate Hochman, facing Los Angeles DA George Gascon, says he’ll “end catch and release policies that make crime worse” and “clean up our streets” with law enforcement, illustrated by a row of tents near Skid Row.
• Tammy Baldwin for Senate, “Think of Farming.” Every swing-seat Democrat is still separating himself and herself from the national ticket — for now. Baldwin’s been doing that by highlighting her non-ideological accomplishments, and by portraying Republican nominee Eric Hovde as a California banker trying to buy her seat. A 2012 interview with Hovde, where he says that modern farming is “largely driving around a tractor,” becomes a riff for two farmers who illustrate their anger with a flowing wave of cow manure. “A California banker criticizing Wisconsin farmers for not working hard? We know what that is.”

Polls

The first poll to enter (and exit) the field after President Biden’s announcement found widespread Democratic relief. Four out of five Democrats say they’re already prepared to support Harris for the nomination, and 39% said they’re more motivated to vote now; just 6% say they feel less motivated than they did when Biden was the presumptive nominee. By a 35-point margin, Democrats believe they’ve got a better chance of winning with Biden gone.

Democrats are feeling good about Harris despite the small-to-nonexistent gap between her and Biden in public polls. In June, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution found Trump leading Biden by 5 points, with 9% of voters supporting Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. This poll was conducted before the Biden-Harris switch, but the very idea of it moved votes, with Kennedy’s support collapsing and most voters gravitating back to the major party candidates. Harris starts with 92% of Democrats and 91% of the Black vote, putting that part of the 2020 Biden-Harris coalition back together. She does worse with white voters, enough to trail outside the margin of error.

Republicans hit every mark they wanted to at their convention, and they incorporated the failed Trump assassination in each evening’s themes. “He can stand defiant against an assassin one moment and call for national healing the next,” said JD Vance in his VP acceptance speech. All evidence is that Trump’s response helped him, but the voters who responded most warmly were already voting for him — Republicans (60%), voters without college degrees (43%), and white men (41%).

Scooped!

The best story Dave wishes he wrote this week:

Republicans have never needed to adjust so quickly to a new general election opponent. Neither have lobbyists. Politico’s Megyn Messerly anchored a comprehensive story about how basically everybody – the tech sector, student debt relief advocates, the energy industry – were figuring out a post-Biden Democratic Party, and a potential president they hadn’t thought seriously about for years.

Next

• seven days until primaries in Arizona
• 14 days until primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, and Washington
• 21 days until primaries in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin
• 27 days until the Democratic National Convention
• 105 days until the 2024 presidential election

Well-adjusted adults who had no particular opinion about Charli XCX are new experts in her work. The British singer quasi-endorsed Harris on Sunday – “kamala IS brat” – and her lime green album art and single remixes are now inspiring Harris fan-cams on TikTok and X. My recommendation is simple: “Brat” is a very good pop record, a welcome respite from Swiftmania from an artist (and former Swift tour opener) aware that she’s “famous but not quite.”