Principals

1. New battleground polling
2. Biden’s moment
3. Blinken in Israel
4. DNC protests
5. Dems defend Harris proposal
6. Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting
7. Trump’s Georgia challenge

PDB: Goldman Sachs decreases odds of US recession

Trump in Pennsylvania … Hamas, Islamic Jihad claim responsibility for Tel Aviv bombing … WSJ: Inside Harris’ fundraising drive

Harris edges out Trump in five battlegrounds: poll

Vice President Harris leads Donald Trump in five of seven battleground states, according to new polling from British firm Focaldata shared first with Semafor. Harris leads Trump in Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Nevada when third parties are factored in. In Pennsylvania, Harris has a single percentage-point advantage. Meanwhile, Trump leads Harris in Arizona and Georgia — both states that voted for President Biden in 2020. The polling adds to the growing body of evidence of Harris’ momentum since she took over the nomination from Biden one month ago. At the same time, the race “looks like it has the potential to be extraordinarily close,” said James Kanagasooriam, the firm’s chief research officer. “Nobody seems to have locked up Pennsylvania — and if that’s the case come election day we will be heading into an election of great uncertainty.”

Biden’s convention moment

President Biden will cap off the first day of the Democratic National Convention with a speech this evening during which he will back Vice President Harris and cast Donald Trump as a threat to democracy. Biden will also seek to cement his legacy as the president who “pulled the nation out of an economic spiral during the coronavirus pandemic,” according to The New York Times. There will be some distance between Biden and Harris; as Semafor’s Kadia Goba and Benjy Sarlin report, Biden’s speech on the first night of the convention — rather than the night before Harris speaks — is a departure from tradition that Democrats hope will help establish Harris’ independent identity. Tonight’s theme will be “For the People” and the program will also feature remarks from first lady Jill Biden and Hillary Clinton.

US accelerates push for Gaza ceasefire

Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that now is “probably the best, maybe the last” opportunity to achieve a Gaza ceasefire as he met with Israeli officials on Monday. “This is a decisive moment,” Blinken said during a meeting with Israeli President Isaac Herzog. Israel and Hamas raised new doubts about the prospect of an agreement ahead of his trip. “We are conducting negotiations and not a scenario in which we just give and give,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday, while Hamas accused Israel of creating new obstacles to a deal. Mediators offered a “bridging proposal” designed to address the remaining sticking points in negotiations and President Biden described a deal as closer than ever last week. One main obstacle is Israel’s insistence that it keep troops stationed along the Philadelphi Corridor between Egypt and Gaza.

Protesters march against Democrats today

Tens of thousands of protesters plan to march on the DNC today, after organizers accused the city of denying them permits that would give them more space to walk outside the convention’s perimeter. “The numbers dictate what the route is,” Hatem Abudayyeh, the executive director of the Arab American Action Network, told reporters in Union Park. “One mile will not accommodate them. Everybody knows that.” As of Sunday evening, protesters intended to march from Union Park to Park #578 nearby, staying within “sight and sound” of conventioneers at the United Center. Officially, the coalition of now more than 270 left-wing and anti-war groups demands not just a ceasefire, but an end to all forms of aid to Israel – “political, diplomatic, financial, military, all of it.” Organizers of a pro-Israel rally also applied for a permit nearby, but were denied it by the city.

— David Weigel

Dems defend Harris’ economic proposal

Former President Donald Trump escalated his attacks on Vice President Kamala Harris’s economic agenda, saying she’s gone “full communist” at a Pennsylvania campaign stop over the weekend. Harris unveiled an economic platform on Friday that included a $6,000 child tax credit for newborns, a federal ban on “price gouging” for groceries, and as much as $25,000 in downpayment assistance for new homebuyers. Rep. Suzan DelBene, D-Wash., told Semafor the expanded child tax credit was “incredibly strong policy” and noted that child benefits are common in other rich nations. For now, Democrats seem ready to stick to the same playbook to beat back Trump’s attacks. “I think we should ridicule it and make fun of it,” Rep. Don Beyer, D-Va., told Semafor. “This is far from communism and Marxism. Capitalism still prevails here, but we’re trying to take care of those that capitalism left behind.”

— Joseph Zeballos-Roig

Federal Reserve in spotlight

Investors are this week looking to comments by global central bankers at the US Federal Reserve’s annual get-together in Jackson Hole. With the odds of a recession falling, traders are betting the Fed will lower rates at its September meeting, though the size of the cut and the number of reductions that follow remain in question: Markets expect policymakers will lower the US’ benchmark rate by between 0.75 and 1 percentage point by year-end. Other central banks are also in the spotlight. China’s is due to meet on Tuesday as the country struggles with languid economic growth, while some major investors are projecting further interest rate hikes in Japan, where an increase last month triggered global market turmoil.

Trump fights for Georgia

Donald Trump’s campaign needs Georgia to win in November — but twin crises are threatening the former president’s prospects there. One is of Trump’s own making: his public attacks on Georgia’s popular Republican Gov. Brian Kemp. Politico reported that Trump’s newfound anger against Kemp flared behind the scenes in April after the governor skipped a Trump fundraiser and his wife told a local reporter that she would write in Kemp’s name for president. Meanwhile, Vice President Harris is narrowing the gap between herself and Trump in Georgia, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll that found Trump ahead by 4 percentage points. The Trump campaign’s spending on TV ads in Georgia doubled between August and September, according to Axios, which reported that Kemp intends to “shore up the state GOP’s get-out-the-vote operation in an effort to rescue Trump.”

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: House Speaker Mike Johnson is campaigning in Arizona and New Mexico this week, appearing at fundraisers for Rep. Juan Ciscomani, R-Ariz., and Abe Hamadeh, the GOP candidate for Arizona’s 8th congressional district.

Playbook: President Biden will contrast his record with that of Donald Trump during his speech, but it’s still unclear whether he will mention the former president’s name.

Axios: “Morning Joe” commentator Mike Barnicle went off on a former Obama official who cheered Biden’s exit from the 2024 race during an encounter at Fenway Park. “You know something? F--k you!” Barnicle told the person. “And f--k all your friends with their anonymous quotes in the papers. Put your name on it next time!”

WaPo: Former White House adviser Anita Dunn insisted Biden’s speech tonight will be less about his legacy and more about the importance of electing Vice President Harris. “This convention is about electing Harris as president and making that case, and that will be a key piece of what he speaks to,” she said.

White House

President Biden is headed to Santa Ynez, Calif., after his address at the Democratic convention tonight.

Congress

• Republicans on the House Oversight, Judiciary and Ways and Means committees accused President Biden of “impeachable conduct” in a report released today, though Republicans still lack the votes to impeach him. — Politico
• Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell defended the ability of members of Congress to vote by “proxy.”
• Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-SC., implored Donald Trump to focus on policy and Vice President Harris’ record. “Donald Trump the provocateur, the showman may not win this election,” he said on NBC.

Economy

Goldman Sachs economists said a recession is less likely following the encouraging retail sales data and jobless claims last week.

Courts

• Indicted former GOP congressman George Santos is expected to plead guilty today to avoid a federal trial. — NYT
• Washington, D.C. City Council member Trayon White Sr., a Democrat, was arrested by the FBI on Sunday. The reason for the arrest was not immediately clear. — WaPo

Polls

• Vice President Harris leads Donald Trump 49% to 45% in a head-to-head matchup among registered voters nationally, according to a Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos poll. Harris leads Trump 51% to 48% among likely voters in a new CBS/YouGov poll.
• Harris’ favorability rating rose to 48% from 39% at the beginning of the summer, according to a new AP/NORC poll.

On the Trail

• Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker predicted the Democratic convention would be “like a rock concert.”
• Michelle Obama will speak at the Democratic convention on Tuesday evening. Former GOP Rep. Adam Kinzinger, a vocal critic of Donald Trump, will also speak.
• Trump will visit the US southern border with Mexico later this week.
• The Harris campaign ignored advice from veteran Democratic pollster Geoff Garin to avoid the phrase “We’re not going back” and cut down on talk of Republicans being “weird.” — CNN
• Former New York Mayor Bill de Blasio missed his flight to the Democratic convention (Semafor’s Max Tani got his seat).

National Security

The Secret Service has stepped up security around Donald Trump after the July 13 attempt on his life. He has complained about the additional security at Mar-A-Lago over the past few weeks, while his aides said it appears to be as heavy as when he was in the White House. — WaPo

Foreign Policy

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Kyiv aims to create a buffer zone in its incursion in Russia in order to prevent attacks over the border.
• The Chinese coast guard accused the Philippines of deliberately crashing one of its vessels into a Chinese ship on Monday near Sabina Shoal in the South China Sea.

Technology

• More than half of Fortune 500 companies believe that artificial intelligence poses a potential risk to their businesses. — FT
• Elon Musk said he shut down X operations in Brazil over a dispute with a judge there.

Big Read

Strategists Mark Penn and Doug Schoen were brought on to the troubled Bill Clinton reelection campaign in 1996 and devised a plan to beat someone like Donald Trump back then, historian Timothy Shenk writes in The New York Times. Schoen studied the British Conservative politician Enoch Powell and believed voters were drawn to him because he focused on what political elites tried to keep from being debated publicly. Penn and Schoen felt problems don’t go away in voters’ minds by ignoring them and send them looking for candidates who will listen to them. “The perception across America was that Clinton was a liberal,” Mr. Schoen said. “Our first task was to change that.”

Blindspot

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: The Washington Post editorial board criticized Vice President Harris’ speech laying out her economic vision, saying she offered only “populist gimmicks.”

What the Right isn’t reading: The artist who designed the “Hope” poster for Barack Obama created a similar poster for Harris with the word “Forward.”

Principals Team

Editors: Benjy Sarlin, Morgan Chalfant

Reporters: Kadia Goba, Joseph Zeballos-Roig, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

Mike Quigley is a Democratic congressman from Illinois.

• The partisan fight over ‘weird’ is becoming a proxy war for LGBTQ issues.
• The 2025 tax war starts early as Harris and Trump vie over child credit.
• To tear down Biden’s climate legacy, Vance needs to go through Ohio’s mayors.