Africa

1. Choppy waters
2. MTN’s revenue challenges
3. Central bank governor
4. Fear and loathing
5. Ruto faces US pressure
6. Malema’s defection woes
7. Amex’s expansion plans

Also, a chatbot that could help African scientists to collaborate.

Welcome to Semafor Africa, where the issue of accountability (or the lack of it) looms large. William Ruto and Ibrahim Traoré are very different political figures. Ruto, Kenya’s president, is the darling of the West who embarked on a historic state visit to the US three months ago. Traoré, Burkina Faso’s military leader, seized power in a coup two years ago. But both are struggling with issues related to accountability.

Ruto is reeling from protests that derailed his plans to impose tax hikes. The alleged killing and abduction of protesters by Kenyan police has created a political headache for him because nobody is facing prosecution. The optics of being associated with a government whose law enforcement officers face such accusation has prompted the US to put pressure on its closest African ally, as Martin K.N Siele reports.

Traoré’s problem is that he lacks the accountability of an elected mandate. A classic pattern is for military governments to be overthrown by other soldiers. He seems to fear that fate is increasingly likely, amid an onslaught by jihadist insurgents over recent months. Joël Té-Léssia Assoko looks at the authoritarian measures Traoré’s junta has imposed to strengthen its grip on power.

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Eswatini flag prompts blacklisting

The number of ships that carry the flag of landlocked African nation Eswatini that have been blacklisted by the United Arab Emirates. The move bans the vessels from calling at UAE waters and ports, unless they are classified by the International Association of Classification Societies maritime agency, or Emirates maritime body Tasneef, according to a government circular. Vessels sailing under the flag are said to have transported Russian oil supplies, after Moscow assembled a shadow fleet of ships to help keep sanctioned supplies moving. Other African countries whose vessels are blacklisted include São Tomé and Príncipe, Equatorial Guinea, Tanzania, Cameroon, and Republic of Congo.

MTN faces a challenging environment

Africa’s biggest mobile network operator MTN said its service revenue fell by one-fifth in the first half of this year. The company, which has 288 million subscribers across 17 African countries, said it was hurt by macroeconomic headwinds in some markets, including the devaluation of Nigeria’s naira currency earlier this year and the ongoing war in Sudan. Average revenue per user (ARPU) fell in both countries — they saw the largest declines across MTN’s operations over the past year — while Eswatini and Republic of Congo were the only countries where ARPU held steady year-over-year.

Ethiopia’s ‘transformative’ currency float

Ethiopia’s move to allow its currency to be traded on the open market instead of at a fixed rate late last month could have a “transformative” impact on its economy, Central Bank Governor Mamo Mihretu told Semafor Africa. Here’s an excerpt from the interview:

💡 What measures will be taken to protect those most affected by the policy change?

The government is temporarily subsidizing some essential imports — including fuel, fertilizers, medicine and edible oil — to reduce the immediate adverse impacts on the general population, especially low-income households.

💡 How will Ethiopia’s high inflation be addressed?

We are mindful of some of the natural fears about inflation. But Ethiopia’s circumstances are distinctly different and should not lead to misleading comparisons.

Ethiopia’s current macroeconomic environment is marked by very restrictive monetary conditions, including very low growth rates for both broad money and base money growth, as well as strict monitoring of direct advances to the government.

💡 The value of the birr has fallen by approximately 90% in less than a month and inflation is going up. Do you anticipate any fallout?

Taken together, the FX reforms represent a comprehensive set of measures that can play a truly transformative role for the Ethiopian economy.

We believe that this reform could be as transformative for Ethiopia as it has been for many other emerging markets, such as India in 1991, that shifted from heavily controlled regimes to more market determined systems.

Inside the biggest stories transforming the Arabian Peninsula and the world. Introducing Semafor Gulf — your go-to source for understanding the rising influence of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. Three times a week, the Semafor Gulf newsroom will bring you original reporting that examines how the region’s financial, business, and geopolitical decisions shape the world — from culture and investment to infrastructure, climate, and technology. Navigate the region’s capital, influence, and power with Semafor Gulf — subscribe for free here.

Burkina Faso attacks expose junta’s fragility

Burkina Faso’s military government is imposing increasingly authoritarian measures amid fears that its control of the country is under threat after a series of jihadist attacks.

The insurgent attacks in March, June, and August have exposed the vulnerability of the administration led by Ibrahim Traoré, a 36-year-old officer who seized power in a coup around two years ago. In the last year, the ruling junta has also said it has “thwarted” at least two attempted coups.

Scores of security officers have been arrested in recent months, often by unidentified armed men, according to the friends and relatives of those taken, and local non-governmental organizations. The arrests are only confirmed when people have reappeared months later in military courts on sedition or terrorism charges.

Civilians who have displeased the regime, including judges and journalists, have been forcibly drafted into front-line combat. Those drafted include the popular radio journalist Alain Traoré, known to his audience as Alain Alain, who was reported “killed in action” on Aug. 17.

The administration’s attempt to assert its authority has also affected its approach to diplomacy. Relations both with France and the neighboring nation of Côte d’Ivoire, both of which have been accused of fomenting subversion, have been strained almost to breaking point. French diplomats were expelled in April after being accused of taking part in “subversive activities.”

US pressures Kenya over deaths

The United States is piling pressure on Kenya’s President William Ruto over alleged extrajudicial killings and abductions by police during protests, a US senator told Semafor Africa.

The US wants officers involved to be held accountable, a message US Senator Chris Murphy — a member of the Senate Foreign Relations committee — said he delivered to Ruto and Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi during his trip to the country last week.

Sixty people were killed over the course of the demonstrations which started in June, according to the government-funded Kenya National Commission on Human Rights (KNCHR). And more than 60 went missing and several more were injured. No officers have been prosecuted or sacked in relation to their alleged conduct during their protests. Kenya’s Independent Policing Oversight Authority has said it is investigating abuse allegations.

Murphy is among the frontrunners to be secretary of state if Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris wins the US presidential election.

“It’s really important for US leaders to convey those concerns and make it clear that our relationship can’t be at its strongest level unless there is a real commitment from the Kenyan government to hold anyone that engages in abuse, particularly in the context of these protests, accountable,” he said.

— Martin K.N Siele

Defection wounds Julius Malema’s EFF

South African political firebrand Julius Malema faces a challenge to quell a crisis in his Economic Freedom Fighters party following the departure of his deputy to join a rival party.

Floyd Shivambu, who co-founded the EFF in 2013, resigned last week as the party’s deputy president to join uMkhonto weSizwe (MK Party), which is led by former South African president Jacob Zuma.

MK Party, which was formed late last year, secured 14.6% in South Africa’s national elections in May, compared with the 9.5% share of the vote won by the EFF.

The success of the fledgling party helped to push the African National Congress below the 50% of the vote needed for a parliamentary majority. It forced the ANC to enter into a coalition government for the first time since the end of apartheid 30 years ago.

With the second biggest party — the Democratic Alliance — joining the ANC-led coalition, MK Party had already become the main opposition force in South African politics. Shivambu’s defection threatens to cement that position and eclipse the EFF.

Malema “finds himself at an inflection point, and his party seems to be in crisis,” said Sanusha Naidu, a senior research fellow at the Institute for Global Dialogue think tank in Pretoria. “He now has to contend with the need to stop the unraveling and mitigate the risk of the crisis worsening.”

— Sam Mkokeli in Johannesburg

American Express in Africa

Payments giant American Express is expanding its footprint in Africa via partnerships with local financial services companies. A new service will allow online businesses that use Flutterwave as their payment provider in Nigeria to accept American Express card payments.

The feature will also be available in Tanzania, Rwanda, and Ghana, with a future rollout planned for Uganda, Flutterwave said. It follows a move earlier this year by American Express to launch four US dollar-denominated credit cards in Nigeria, in partnership with Lagos-based fintech company O3 Capital. American Express said at the time that it saw Nigeria as being on an “upward trajectory,” and added it planned to extend the acceptance of all its cards in a dozen more sub-Saharan African countries by next year.

Africa is projected to have more than half a billion e-commerce users by 2025, up from less than 140 million in 2017. Growth over the years has been underpinned by easier payments, enabling faster local and international online transactions.

The American Express partnership with Flutterwave will give African e-commerce vendors “the opportunity to reach American Express Card Members around the world,” said Briana Wilsey, an American Express executive for Europe and Africa.

— Alexander Onukwue in Lagos

Tech

🇰🇪 Uber increased its fares in Kenya by 10% following pressure from drivers that fares determined by the company’s algorithms were way below market realities in the country.

🇳🇬 Nigerian payments company Paystack said it processed 1 trillion naira ($636 million) in July, the first time it would hit the mark in a single month.

Geopolitics

🇺🇬 Uganda recalled its consul general to the United Arab Emirates and other officials over reports that privately-procured gambling machines shipped under diplomatic cover between Russia and the Middle East were being operated at the consulate in Dubai.

🇳🇪 🇧🇯 Niger is set to resume oil exports after it reached an agreement with neighboring Benin to resolve a border dispute, both nations confirmed.

Energy

🇸🇴 Turkey will send the Oruc Reis research vessel to explore offshore oil blocks belonging to Somalia in a bid to diversify its supply of crude oil.

🇬🇭 Ghanaian President Nana Akufo-Addo on Monday launched the construction of a 300,000 barrel-per-day oil refinery in the southwest of the country. The first phase of the project is estimated to cost $12 billion and will be funded by a consortium of companies.

Governance

🇿🇦 The South African city of Cape Town introduced a digital control room to track its water and sanitation facilities, at the cost of 7.4 million rand ($414,000). South African cities have been beset by water and sanitation problems in recent years.

🇸🇩 Sudan’s ruling Transitional Sovereign Council said it will send a delegation to Cairo for discussions with mediators about the implementation of an agreement that would see the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces leave civilian areas.

🇸🇴 Somalia’s cabinet approved a bill that allows a one-person-one-vote election system which will replace a complex clan-based indirect voting system.

🇬🇭 Ghana’s Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia unveiled the manifesto of the ruling New Patriotic Party ahead of the nation’s general election in December.

Deals

🇿🇦 HSBC is exploring the sale of its South Africa division with banks in China and United Arab Emirates interested, Bloomberg reports citing sources.

🇰🇪 Kenya-based consumer group Bidcoro Africa received approval from the Competition Authority of Kenya to acquire Suntory Beverage and Food Africa, makers of Ribena and Lucozade.

🌍 Liquid Technologies, an African technology company, won exclusive rights to sell and distribute technology systems by Globalstar in the Gulf, Middle East and Africa to improve 5G access in those regions.

🇿🇦 Qatar Airways has taken up a 25% stake in South African regional carrier Airlink, the companies announced on Tuesday.

African scientists will soon be able to share data across the continent despite complex and differing laws, thanks to a newly-developed chatbot. The chatbot, developed by a team at the University of KwaZulu-Natal and the University of the Witwatersrand in South Africa, uses the same technology as ChatGPT. It is expected to launch next month. The chatbot has been trained on the data regulations of 12 African nations and will enable researchers to cross reference applicable laws to share datasets broadly. The complex laws, alongside misinformation about data sharing, has led to the underrepresentation of Africans in global health data. Researchers said the tool will be particularly useful for scientists based in low income countries who lack access to legal advice.

• Concerns raised over US drug companies conducting trials in Xinjiang.
• Kyiv, Moscow both push dueling offenses.
• Fed officials head to Jackson Hole for annual confab.

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— Yinka, Alexis, Alexander Onukwue, Martin Siele, Muchira Gachenge, and Jenna Moon