Principals

1. Middle East tensions
2. Trump’s bounceback plan
3. Sullivan to China
4. RFK Jr. on Trump endorsement
5. 538 returns
6. Defense industry boom
7. Telegram CEO arrest

PDB: Trump suggests he could skip ABC debate

Russia targets energy infrastructure in Ukraine with missiles, drones … Taiwan conducts military drills … NYT: Why Nippon Steel’s proposed takeover of US Steel is in peril

Israel, Hezbollah trade fire

Israel and Hezbollah exchanged heavy strikes on Sunday that left the Middle East bracing for a wider war, but both sides signaled a desire to de-escalate. Israel conducted what it said were preemptive strikes on dozens of Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, and the group responded by firing missiles and drones at Israel. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant discussed the “importance of avoiding regional escalation” with his US counterpart, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, while Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said the group’s response was over and “the country can take a breath.” The Pentagon said it ordered two aircraft carrier strike groups to remain in the region. One analyst told Bloomberg that the exchange may help ceasefire negotiations rather than complicate them. “By sending a message that Israel is willing and able to escalate, and that Washington will back it when it does so, the US and Israel have underscored the consequences for Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran of continuing to refuse a deal,” The Washington Institute’s Mike Singh said.

Trump campaign hopes the Harris honeymoon is over

Donald Trump’s top pollster says the campaign is expecting Kamala Harris to get a “temporary 2 to 3 point bump” after the convention. But they’re at least cautiously optimistic the worst may be over — her first interviews and the debate are around the corner, and Trump’s team is hopeful she’ll be tripped up by a long list of questions about her record and policy that have piled up this month. Privately, Trump’s allies have reminded him that even as Harris has received “million[s]” worth of “positive media” coverage, as one advisor described it, the race remains highly competitive. They see room to improve once the press and public move on from the honeymoon phase. “People are getting bored and they have nothing else left,” another person on the campaign argued. Trump will attend an event marking the withdrawal from Afghanistan today, a low point in the Biden presidency the campaign hopes to force Harris to account for. They also are drafting off tough coverage of her vague proposal to cap grocery prices. “At some point in time, things are going to turn,” one campaign advisor said.

— Shelby Talcott

Jake Sullivan heads to China

President Biden’s national security adviser will head to China this week to raise concerns about China’s support for Russia while seeking progress on military-to-military communication and countering fentanyl. Tomorrow’s trip represents Jake Sullivan’s first trip to China in his role and the first by a national security adviser since Susan Rice traveled to the country in 2016, a senior administration official noted. He’ll meet with his counterpart, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and the two will likely discuss a possible final meeting between Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping before Biden leaves office. China plans to raise Taiwan and concerns about US tariffs. The meeting is the latest in a strategic channel between the two officials that the senior administration official said “has played an important role in responsibly managing competition and tensions.” The Financial Times details how the channel was set up in the wake of the spy balloon incident in February 2023.

Samuel Levine, Director, FTC Bureau of Consumer Protection, will join Semafor’s editors to explore how online platforms can play a constructive role in communicating age restrictions for certain goods and services and the responsibilities and strategies of policymakers in effectively regulating social media use among young people.

RSVP for in-person or livestream.

RFK Jr. says Trump made ‘no commitments’ on Cabinet post

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said he was not promised a Cabinet position in exchange for endorsing Donald Trump. “There’s been no commitments,” Kennedy said on “Fox News Sunday,” adding that he and the Republican nominee “made a general commitment that we were going to work together.” Kennedy announced he would suspend his presidential campaign and back Trump on Friday, and would remove his name from the ballot in battleground states where“my presence would be a spoiler,” he said. He also said that Trump “asked to enlist me in his administration,” leading to speculation that Kennedy could be up for a health-related position. Kennedy, an anti-vaccine activist, has previously called for overhauling the missions of US agencies. But his decision to withdraw hasn’t done much to damage Kamala Harris’ numbers, according to Nate Silver.

538’s model mystery

538, the most scrutinized election forecast model in the US, is back online after a mysterious month-long hiatus, Semafor’s Max Tani writes. The model, which continued to show President Biden would likely win the November election, abruptly disappeared after the president dropped out of the race in July. It reappeared on Friday with a forecast indicating Vice President Harris defeating Donald Trump 58 times out of 100. Two people with knowledge of the situation said the model has in fact been adjusted, though there had been internal disagreement within ABC News over whether and how much to explain those methodological revisions.

Defense sector seeks long-term stability

The global defense industry has seen major growth since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Despite a recent wobble after reports Germany would halt military aid for Kyiv, European defense stocks have roughly doubled in value since February 2022, the Financial Times noted. Meanwhile, Y Combinator, the venture capital group, backed a defense firm for the first time. But the industry will need reassurance that the big orders will continue long-term: A UK subsidiary of France’s Thales went from being “basically mothballed” to getting a $300 million contract overnight. Governments should “give surety” that “this is not just a two-second thing” preceding “another 30 years of decline,” an analyst told the BBC.

Telegram CEO arrested

Telegram CEO Pavel Durov was arrested in Paris over allegations that his platform did not curb illegal uses of the app, such as drug trafficking and terrorism. The 39-year-old Russian-born billionaire fled the country in 2014 after facing pressure from Moscow for not suppressing opposition voices on his other social media platform. He “can hardly be called a Russian patriot,” a state media outlet wrote, but several Kremlin figures slammed the arrest as politically motivated. Billionaire X owner Elon Musk publicly defended Durov after the latter’s arrest. “It’s not hard to see why Musk might feel kinship with Durov,” Politico reported, since the X owner is also accused of failing to moderate illegal content. “Anyone who’s glibly telling you either that this is a crackdown on free speech or a simple matter of content moderation policy is missing the point,” Semafor’s Ben Smith wrote. “A big story of this decade is what comes after the utopian vision of social platforms as a new open global digital space, whose giant, mostly American owners could disregard national laws in favor of universal values.”

Beltway Newsletters

Playbook: Donald Trump and Vice President Harris’ campaigns are tussling over rules for the upcoming September presidential debate. Harris’ camp wants the mic to be hot. “Our understanding is that Trump’s handlers prefer the muted microphone because they don’t think their candidate can act presidential for 90 minutes on his own,” Harris campaign adviser Brian Fallon said.

Axios: Harris is trying to “outwork” Donald Trump on the campaign trail and in debate preparations over the next 71 days.

White House

• President Biden remembered the deadly Kabul airport bombing in Afghanistan that occurred three years ago during the chaotic US withdrawal. The 13 American service members who died in the attack “embodied the very best of who we are as a nation: brave, committed, selfless,” Biden said in a statement. “And we owe them and their families a sacred debt we will never be able to fully repay, but will never cease working to fulfill.”
• White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan traveled to Canada to meet with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and speak at the country’s annual cabinet retreat.
• Biden is in Rehoboth Beach, Del. for the week.

Congress

• Democratic lawmakers are telling critics of Vice President Harris’ price gouging proposal that it will never pass Congress. — Politico
• Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has been quietly working on getting conservatives in the House to give up on their demands that a crackdown on immigrant voting be included in a short-term funding bill. — Axios

Economy

Central bankers were cautiously optimistic over the weekend at the Federal Reserve’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo. they could beat the odds and steer the global economy into a soft landing. — FT

Business

Private-equity firms are dialing back their deals in China. — FT

Courts

• German federal prosecutors suspect a terrorism link to the 26-year-old refugee from Syria who allegedly killed three and wounded eight at a festival in the western city of Solingen on Friday night. The man is facing possible murder and attempted murder charges.

On the Trail

• Donald Trump hinted he may skip the Sept. 10 ABC News debate with Vice President Harris. “I watched ABC FAKE NEWS this morning, both lightweight reporter Jonathan Carl’s(K?) ridiculous and biased interview of Tom Cotton (who was fantastic!), and their so-called Panel of Trump Haters, and I ask, why would I do the Debate against Kamala Harris on that network?” he wrote on Truth Social.
• JD Vance said Trump would veto a federal abortion ban if it passed Congress.
• Harris’ campaign has raised $540 million since she took over the top of the Democratic presidential ticket.
• Harris is widening her net in recruiting House Democrats to stump for her. — Axios
• Trump said Elon Musk probably couldn’t serve in his cabinet due to his schedule running Tesla and SpaceX, but he said the billionaire could “consult.”
• A nonprofit that supports people charged over to the Jan. 6 riot at the US Capitol will hold a fundraiser on Sept. 5 at Trump’s private golf course in New Jersey.
• The Foo Fighters said they will donate any royalties from Trump’s unauthorized use of their song “My Hero” at the former president’s rally in Arizona to the Harris campaign.
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. lost his Secret Service protection after he suspended his campaign.

National Security

Some Secret Service officials have been put on leave in response to the assassination attempt on Donald Trump last month. — NBC News

Foreign Policy

China said it “resolutely opposes” the US adding a number of Chinese entities to its export control list in an attempt to further curb Russia’s access to advanced American technology needed for its weapons.

Science

NASA won’t return the two astronauts who went to the International Space Station on a Boeing Starliner in June until next year, and on a Space X capsule.

Technology

Chinese artificial intelligence engineers are using banned Nvidia chips by working with brokers to gain access to computing power overseas. — WSJ

Media

A safety adviser for Reuters was killed and two Reuters journalists were wounded in a missile attack on a hotel in Ukraine on Saturday.

Blindspot

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., clashed with a CNBC host while defending Vice President Harris’ proposal to cut down on “price gouging.”

What the Right isn’t reading: Harris’ nomination acceptance speech beat Donald Trump’s in terms of TV viewership.

Principals Team

Editors: Benjy Sarlin, Morgan Chalfant

Reporters: Kadia Goba, Joseph Zeballos-Roig, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

Don Beyer is a Democratic congressman from Virginia.

• India’s Modi urges Zelenskyy to sit down for peace talks with Russia.
• Altman-backed startup to test AV mass transit system in Atlanta.
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell says ‘the time has come’ to cut rates.