Principals

1. Harris in the hot seat
2. US economic sentiment
3. Inflation report
4. Army rebukes Trump
5. Trump floats universal IVF coverage
6. Grocers blame inflation for prices
7. Germany’s state elections

PDB: Trump’s campaign tries to clean up his remarks on Florida abortion rights measure

Trump speaks at Moms for Liberty gathering in Washington … Putin film blocked at Venice Film Festival … NYT: Harris donors push her to drop support for tax on rich

Harris and Walz survive the big CNN interview

Kamala Harris’ and Tim Walz’s CNN interview was an all-at-once purge of many of the top questions hanging over the campaign. Harris addressed her shifting positions since her 2019 run for president, telling Dana Bash “my values have not changed” even as the policy specifics had. Pressed on her prior calls for a fracking ban, she promised not to block the practice and said she’d been convinced by the White House’s renewable energy investments that it could continue. She stood by her defense of President Biden’s ability to serve after his June debate, saying she was “proud” of his presidency. Walz also addressed his misstatement that he had carried weapons “in war,” saying his “grammar” is sometimes incorrect. In theory, the gauntlet of questions could free Harris and Walz to do more varied media on less contentious topics next — “Hot Ones,” anyone?

— Benjy Sarlin

Americans’ confidence on economy inches up

Americans are growing more positive about the economy — sort of. New data from Gallup shows that the share of Americans who say the economy is “getting better” increased 7 percentage points in August to 31%, although 63% say it is “getting worse.” Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index hit its highest point since March as a result, but it is still in negative territory. At the same time, the percentage of Americans who cite economic issues — like inflation — as the most important problem facing the US increased in August from the month prior. And just 45% of Americans say it’s a good time to find a quality job — the lowest percentage since April 2021. The survey was taken just as an increase in the unemployment rate spurred recession fears, although encouraging data on cooling inflation and rising retail sales eased those worries.

Inflation report could offer clues on rates

A key inflation report out this morning should offer more clues about expected interest rate cuts. The US personal consumption expenditures price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — may show inflation continuing to ease, after the consumer price index rose by less than 3% in July for the first time since 2021. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that a rate cut in September was virtually guaranteed, though there’s still some debate about how big the cut will be. On Thursday, revised figures showed US gross domestic product grew at a 3% rate in the second quarter, quicker than previously thought.

A rare Army statement rebukes Trump over Arlington incident

The US Army issued a rare statement defending an Arlington National Cemetery staffer who it said was “abruptly pushed aside” when she tried to prevent Trump aides from filming political content in a section of the cemetery where it is restricted. An Army spokesperson said participants in the ceremony Donald Trump attended Monday “were made aware of federal laws, Army regulations and DoD policies, which clearly prohibit political activities on cemetery grounds.” The spokesperson added that it was unfortunate that the cemetery staffer and “her professionalism has been unfairly attacked,” referring to Trump campaign aides who have gone after the employee in the days since. The controversy has spawned new problems for Trump with veterans, historically a Republican-leaning cohort.

Trump wants to mandate IVF coverage

Donald Trump on Thursday pledged universal healthcare coverage — for in vitro fertilization treatments. “Your government will pay for — or your insurance company will be mandated to pay for — all costs associated with IVF treatment… because we want more babies, to put it nicely,” Trump said in a Michigan speech that underscored his challenges winning over women as Democrats rally around reproductive access. “I did not have Medicare for All for IVF on my bingo card for policy proposals from Donald Trump,” Larry Levitt, a healthcare expert at the Kaiser Family Foundation, told Semafor. Trump may have trouble selling the plan to Republicans, who usually balk at coverage mandates. In June, GOP senators blocked a bill that would require insurance coverage for IVF treatments — which comprise about 2.5% of births — that typically cost at least $15,000 per cycle. Sens. Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski were the only Republican supporters.

— Joseph Zeballos-Roig

Food industry to push back on Harris price gouging plan

The food industry has a plan to push back on Kamala Harris’s plan to bar price gouging for groceries. In a memo sent to Congressional offices and seen by Semafor, the National Grocers Association, which represents family-owned grocery chains, argues they’re the ones getting squeezed. “The real culprit is skyrocketing overhead costs which get passed on to consumers in tight margin environments,” it said, noting independent grocers scraped by 1.4% margins in 2023. Supporters of the plan are unlikely to be deterred. “The states do it all the time,” Rep. Don Beyer of Virginia told Semafor. “In Virginia, we have the State Corporation Commission, for example, whose specific mission is to take those institutions with monopolistic power… and make sure that they’re not price gouging.”

— Joseph Zeballos-Roig

Germany’s state elections go global

State elections in eastern Germany, which are typically staid, local affairs, have gone global this year. Even though it’s not the responsibility of state governments, foreign policy has played an outsized role in Saxony and Thüringia, which go to the polls Sunday, as well as Brandenburg, which votes Sept. 22. The rise of far-right and far-left populist parties that oppose military support for Ukraine has led other local party leaders to pitch themselves as Vladimir Putin whisperers and make their cases for how they would end the war diplomatically. State officials don’t have the power to cut military funding or hold negotiations with Russia, but if the parties in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government are dealt a major electoral blow at the hands of more Russia-friendly factions — as polls predict — it could shift how the federal government approaches its support for Kyiv.

— J.D. Capelouto

Beltway Newsletters

Playbook: John Thune, the No. 2 Senate Republican and a candidate to be the next Senate GOP leader, appeared at a ribbon-cutting ceremony last week for a water project that received $152 million from the bipartisan infrastructure law, a bill he voted against.

Axios: Kamala Harris told CNN that Americans are ready to “turn the page” on the Donald Trump era, an example of how she is trying to position herself as the “change” candidate (despite being in the White House) and Trump as the “exhausting incumbent.”

Congress

• Congressional Democrats are hunting for information about the altercation between Donald Trump’s campaign staff and an official at the Arlington National Cemetery earlier this week. — Axios
• New Jersey state Sen. Nellie Pou will replace Bill Pascrell on the ballot in November after the Democratic House representative died last week.

Outside the Beltway

• California lawmakers approved a bill to extend a state down payment assistance program to undocumented immigrants. Gov. Gavin Newsom now has to decide if he’ll sign it into law.
• Maryland Gov. Wes Moore was not awarded a Bronze Star for his service in the Army in Afghanistan, despite claiming he was. — NYT

Economy

China is considering allowing homeowners to refinance $5.4 trillion in mortgages to cut borrowing costs for millions of families and lift consumption. — Bloomberg

Business

Dollar General said lower-income US households are running out of money at the end of each month as the discount retailer reported quarterly results that missed expectations and cut its full-year guidance. Its shares sank 32% in Thursday trading.

Courts

• Donald Trump is is seeking to move his New York hush-money criminal case to federal court, three months after he was convicted in state court.
• Major book publishers sued Florida, alleging that the state law that allows parents and residents more influence over materials in school libraries violates the First Amendment.

Polls

• Kamala Harris has a slim edge over Donald Trump in Georgia, Michigan, and Nevada, while Trump has a narrow lead over Harris in Arizona. North Carolina, and Wisconsin, according to an Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey.
• Harris leads Trump 45% to 41%, wider than the 1 percentage point lead a month ago, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.
• A Wall Street Journal poll found Harris with a narrow lead over Trump nationally.
• Harris is ahead or tied with Trump in the seven states that are expected to decide the presidential race, according to a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll.

On the Trail

• Donald Trump criticized Florida’s six-week abortion ban in an interview with NBC News when asked how he would vote on a November ballot initiative that would restore abortion access. But the campaign clarified to Semafor’s Shelby Talcott afterwards that Trump has not taken a position on the state abortion vote.
• Kamala Harris said she plans to propose a new tax credit for small businesses next week.
• Harris donors are quietly pushing her to rethink her support of a proposed tax on the ultrarich. — NYT
• The Harris campaign is running a new battleground state in the Florida media market that includes Mar-a-Lago in order to troll Trump. — The Bulwark
• JD Vance implored billionaire Peter Thiel to “get off the sidelines” and support Trump’s presidential campaign. — FT
• Streaming services like Roku and Hulu are seeing more political ad spending than Facebook and Google. — CNBC
• The Harris campaign is starting a “Fighting for Reproductive Freedom” bus tour next week, with its first event next Tuesday in Palm Beach, Fla. — Trump’s backyard.

Crime

The Justice Department inspector general report faulted the FBI for failures in handling child sex abuse allegations after the investigation into disgraced sports doctor Larry Nassar.

Foreign Policy

• A US-made F-16 crashed in Ukraine weeks after Kyiv began using the aircraft to push back against the Russian invasion. — WSJ
• Chinese leader Xi Jinping used a meeting with US national-security adviser Jake Sullivan to seek stability between the countries amid the presidential election in the US.
• Israel and Hamas have agreed to three separate three-day pauses in fighting in Gaza to allow for the first round of polio vaccinations in children.
• Iran has increased its stockpile of uranium enriched nearly to weapons-grade levels. — AP

Technology

• The Netherlands is poised to restrict chip equipment maker ASML’s ability to repair semiconductor equipment based in China. — Bloomberg
• Intel is exploring its options as it navigates its historic slump. — Bloomberg
• Apple and Nvidia are considering investing in OpenAI. — WSJ
• A Brazilian Supreme Court justice threatened to suspend X in the country if Elon Musk failed to appoint a legal representative for the site within 24 hours.

Media

• Two editors of a defunct pro-democracy Hong Kong news outlet were convicted of sedition in a landmark case that cemented the city’s crackdown on dissent under its national security law.
• ABC News is asking the Trump and Harris campaigns to agree to a list of debate rules, Semafor’s Shelby Talcott reports.

Big Read

The US is “in far better shape” to avoid a protracted battle over the presidential election results this cycle, University of California law professor Richard Hasen argues in The Wall Street Journal. That’s in part because of a 2022 election reform law Congress passed following the Jan. 6 attack and the fact that state election rules won’t be a “moving target” for lawsuits like they were during the COVID-19 pandemic when some states made changes in response to the public health emergency, he writes.

Blindspot

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: Liz Magill, who resigned as president of the University of Pennsylvania over her congressional testimony on antisemitism, joined Harvard as a visiting fellow.

What the Right isn’t reading: Republican donor Eric Levine criticized Donald Trump for tapping Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard to serve on his transition team should he win.

Principals Team

Editors: Benjy Sarlin, Morgan Chalfant

Reporters: Kadia Goba, Joseph Zeballos-Roig, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

Brendan Boyle is a Democratic congressman from Pennsylvania.

• China’s Xi meets top White House official as countries try to ease tensions.
• Ukraine pushes US for support on long-range missile strikes against Russia.
• German officials look to push social platforms on image verification.