Principals

Exclusive: Poll shows Matt Rosendale up big in Montana

THE NEWS

National Republicans may have a problem on their hands in Montana. While the NRSC is backing 37-year old veteran Tim Sheehy for Senate, Montana Rep. Matt Rosendale would start with a sizable lead if he entered the race, according to polling prepared by J.L. Partners and shared exclusively with Semafor.

The poll, which interviewed 418 Republican voters between Aug. 12 and Aug. 17, found Rosendale at 55% in a potential primary against Sheehy, who came in at 19%, while 26% of voters were undecided. Both men led Sen. Jon Tester, a Democrat who beat Rosendale to win his third term, by almost identical margins — 46-42 for Sheehy, 46-43 for Rosendale.

SHELBY AND DAVID’S VIEW

The findings suggest Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., the chair of the NRSC, has some serious work to do in his backyard. Senate leaders are taking a much more active role in primaries this cycle after a series of disastrous nominees in 2022 — and Sheehy is supposed to be Exhibit A for the new approach. Daines backed him immediately after he announced his run, touting his Navy SEAL and business background, and has worked to stack up endorsements — including the state’s governor, Greg Gianforte, and at-large Congressman, Ryan Zinke — to scare others out of a run.

At the top of that list is Rosendale, who lost to Tester by 3.5 points in 2018, but has been urged by some conservative allies to run again. He’s closely aligned himself with the House Freedom Caucus since winning election to Congress in 2020, participated in the rebellion against Kevin McCarthy’s speakership, and has denounced Sheehy as the preferred pick of “Mitch McConnell and the party bosses.”

If he prevails, it’ll be yet another sign that leadership is losing its ability to influence — and maybe even understand — its own party’s base.

— Shelby Talcott and David Weigel

To read more, including a Room For Disagreement, click here.

☞ White House: New York Gov. Kathy Hochul huddled with senior Biden officials at the White House to discuss the migrant crisis in New York. The administration said it agreed to help get more asylum seekers eligible to work. Meanwhile, White House economists will have their eyes on inflation numbers this morning as the Fed’s preferred measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index, comes out.

☞ Senate: In an eerie repeat of his health incident last month, Mitch McConnell froze for more than 30 seconds in the middle of a press conference in Kentucky before briefly answering two more questions and leaving. He spoke later to his leadership team, including potential successors John Barrasso, R-Wyo. and John Thune, R-S.D., who said he sounded in good spirits, and met with a top Senate recruit, Rep. Jim Banks, R-Ind.

☞ House: Rep. Steny Hoyer, D-Md. demanded the House Ethics Committee release their findings on the investigation into Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y. noting the panel hasn’t put out an update in two months. Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul, R-Texas requested transcribed interviews with nine current and former administration officials in his Afghanistan withdrawal investigation.

☞ Outside the Beltway: Idalia, now downgraded to a tropical storm, is causing dangerous flooding in North Carolina and Georgia. As of 3 a.m., more than 300,000 customers were without power across the South.

Get ready for a fight over disaster aid

Back-to-back natural disasters in Hawaii and Florida have put federal disaster aid at the front of Capitol Hill’s to-do list when Congress returns next week — potentially queuing up a fight with the White House, which wants to pair relief money with a Ukraine package.

• Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., is urging the Senate to immediately pass legislation that would provide $12.5 billion to refill FEMA’s dwindling disaster relief fund in the aftermath of Hurricane Idalia. “I will not allow Washington to continue playing games with disaster aid and the lives of those needing our help,” he said in a Tuesday statement.
• Disaster cash usually passes Congress without much controversy. But the White House wants to merge relief with at least $24 billion of Ukraine aid in a supplemental funding package, angering conservatives opposed to more humanitarian and military assistance to Kyiv.
• Biden said Wednesday he’s marshaled federal resources to support relief efforts and spoken with governors from states impacted by Idalia, including Fla. Gov. Ron DeSantis. “I think he trusts my judgment and my desire to help, and I trust him to be able to suggest that this is not about politics, it’s about taking care of the people of the state,” he said at a press conference.
• FEMA has $3.4 billion left in its disaster relief fund, a sum that’s enough to cover “immediate” needs like removing debris and providing temporary housing to families, former FEMA administrator Craig Fugate told Semafor.
• As Floridians grapple with a home insurance crisis, they shouldn’t count on FEMA to step in as an insurer of last resort. “FEMA provides very little assistance for permanent long-term repairs if your home was destroyed,” Fugate said. Congress never intended for FEMA to fulfill the gap of no insurance on a wide-scale basis.”

— Joseph Zeballos-Roig

Scoop: From White House to Mouse House

A former top Biden White House official is headed for a top job in Hollywood. Multiple Disney staffers confirmed that Remi Yamamoto, a former senior adviser to White House chief of staff Ron Klain, is set to become a vice president for media relations for Disney Entertainment Television. In the new role, she will be responsible for messaging and strategy for executives at ABC Entertainment, ABC News, ABC’s television stations, Hulu Originals, FX, and National Geographic, among others, as well as crisis comms.

Before leaving the White House earlier this year, Yamamoto served as a comms gatekeeper for Klain as well as other members of Biden’s close inner circle, including deputy chief of staff Jennifer O’Malley Dillon, and senior advisers Mike Donilon, Bruce Reed, and Anita Dunn, among others. Yamamoto’s hiring comes at a tricky moment for the company, whose traditional television business has been in rapid decline.

—Max Tani

Republicans sour on schools

Republican confidence in American education has collapsed to a two-decade low, according to new polling from Gallup. Just 25% of registered GOP voters and independents who lean toward the party now say they are at least somewhat satisfied with K-12 schooling in the country, down from 49% in 2020. (A recent poll of Republican primary voters by Echelon Insights found similar results for this year). By contrast, satisfaction among Democrats has dipped a bit to 44%, but is still within its normal range.

Thank the Fox effect: Republicans have soured on schools as classrooms have become the main flashpoint for battles over COVID, race, and gender that have dominated cable, social media, and the campaign trail. But among actual parents of K-12 students, attitudes are much more positive; 76% of them are at least somewhat satisfied with the quality of their child’s education.

— Jordan Weissmann

U.S. Congress puts on a China roadshow

The House select committee on China will hold a hearing in New York City soon on how to regulate U.S. investment into China, ranking member Raja Krishnamoorthi, D-Ill., told Semafor’s Morgan Chalfant during the committee’s visit to a Wisconsin trailer manufacturer Wednesday. Chairman Mike Gallagher, R-Wis. says the high-profile committee plans to have recommendations on economic policy out by the end of the year, and the resolutely bipartisan trip felt a million miles from Washington’s bitter partisanship — and its older foreign policy divisions. As Rep. Darin LaHood, R-Ill. told Morgan: “You had human rights hawks, you had economic hawks, you had national security hawks. They’ve all found each other now. And they’ve put aside philosophical differences. Now it’s working together to counteract China.”

— Morgan Chalfant

To read more, click here.

AOC opens up

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez sat down for a winding interview with the New York Times in which she was asked to respond to complaints on the left that she’s become too much of a D.C. insider. Her take? “I often say to my grass-roots companions that the left, for a very long time, was not used to having power in the United States. And so when we encounter power, we’re so bewildered by it.”

In other highlights, the New Yorker says she’s come to like being in Congress more than in the early days, when much of establishment D.C. was “extremely hostile to my existence.” She also dings Biden for his immigration policy, including his handling of migrants in New York, and suggests she’d be fine with someone primarying Mayor Eric Adams. “An election without any choice would be something that many New Yorkers would feel kind of uncertain about,” she said.

— Jordan Weissmann

Punchbowl: A special edition includes this nugget: “Inside McConnell’s circle, there are doubts about how long he will last as the top Senate Republican, the position he’s held since 2006.” The team notes that “with Congress facing a turbulent fall session, including a potential government shutdown, the timing couldn’t be worse.”

Playbook: Some Senate Republicans have privately started to push for more information about McConnell’s health. “If we’re going to stick with him, he kinda owes it to us to tell us what’s going on,” one Republican aide said.

Axios: Top GOP donors are asking Sen. Tim Scott for more information about his status as a bachelor before backing him.

Nancy Mace represents South Carolina’s 1st district in Congress and texted from the Isle of Palms area during the storm.

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, according to data from our partners at Ground News.

WHAT THE LEFT ISN’T READING: The House Oversight Committee is seeking documents about Hunter Biden’s use of Air Force Two when Joe Biden was vice president.

WHAT THE RIGHT ISN’T READING: A federal judge ruled that Peter Navarro, who is facing contempt of Congress charges, cannot argue that former President Trump barred him from testifying to the Jan. 6 committee by asserting executive privilege.