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In this edition: Gavin Newsom’s surprising veto, a wave of GOP abortion ads, and a primary debate th͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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September 26, 2023
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David Weigel

The veto heard ‘round the world

PATRICK T. FALLON/AFP via Getty Images

THE NEWS

LOS ANGELES – Gov. Gavin Newsom’s weekend veto of a transgender rights bill surprised some progressive Democrats, angered some LGBTQ activists, and got a mixed reaction from conservatives.

But Tuesday, after the governor signed an array of other LGBTQ rights and gender identity bills, the veto’s impact — killing a measure that would have instructed courts to consider a parent’s support of their child’s gender identity in custody cases — had waned.

In conservative media, Newsom’s opposition was covered first as a watershed moment, then as a political dodge. “This guy’s so oily,” said Fox News host Greg Gutfeld, “he should join OPEC.” LGBTQ advocates who had endorsed the bill said they were unlikely to push for a veto override this year; some endorsed part of the rationale in Newsom’s veto message: That courts could already consider a child’s gender identity and a parent’s response in custody cases.

“Nothing changed,” said Shannon Minter, the legal director of the National Center for Lesbian Rights, based in San Francisco. “Look, Gov. Newsom has many times demonstrated his support for transgender people and transgender youth. His intent here appears to be not separating out transgender youth from other youths.”

DAVID’S VIEW

Presidential politics have a way of elevating any story — even when the key players are only hypothetical candidates. Newsom’s veto came as he was negotiating a November debate with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, an unusual, high-profile intramural media event between candidate and non-candidate; on Sunday, a “60 Minutes” profile of Newsom asked repeatedly if he’d run for president.

That shaped the early, shocked reaction to the governor, who has put California forward as a “freedom state,” a refuge from the wave of red-state legislation limiting abortion access, gender-affirming care, and discussion of gender identity in schools. Legislators, who got only a little notice of the governor’s move, knew that some of their constituents would be horrified.

“People are really scared about what’s happening in other states,” said state Sen. Scott Wiener, a co-sponsor of the bill. “They’re scared of what’s happening in Congress, because they know that if the Republicans get back the White House and the Senate and keep the House, that they’ll kill the filibuster, and do all sorts of nasty stuff.

The legislation, known as AB-957, sought to require judges overseeing custody disputes to weigh a parent’s “affirmation of the child’s gender identity” as one among “other comprehensive factors.” Its lead author, Assemblywoman Lori Wilson, herself the mother of a trans child, had argued the language could protect minors from “a non-affirming or an abusive caretaker,”

But the proposal took a pounding from conservatives. The Heritage Foundation’s Daily Signal theorized that parents could lose custody of their children if LGBTQ activist groups charged them with abuse; Fox News prime time ran multiple segments about the bill, with a Chicago parent who’d lost custody of her daughter to an ex-partner, and Republican legislators urging parents to “flee” the state.

Did Newsom cave to the pressure because he has one eye on the White House? To some advocates, that seemed like an obvious explanation. On a Monday night call organized by the California TGI Policy Alliance, TransLatin@ campaign coordinator Ace Anaya told supporters that the bill had been buried by opposition fueled with “a lot of transphobic parental outrage.” Newsom might want to seek higher office, Anaya added, and may have balked at a “controversial” bill as a result.

Newsom offered a more principled reason in his veto statement. While arguing that courts could already take gender affirmation into account in their decisions, the governor explained he was hesitant to dictate new rules to judges in part because other politicians might use a similar bill to “diminish the civil rights of vulnerable communities.” Not everyone found his reasoning satisfying.

“I was a little bit surprised by that part of the message, because this is already happening,” said Terra Russell-Slavin, the director of policy and community building at the Los Angeles LGBT Center. “We’ve even seen federal legislation introduced to try to make this a national standard by far-right legislators in the House of Representatives.”

Still, while Wilson posted over the weekend that she was not “done,” there’s no effort for now to get a revote or override Wilson’s veto. It was an outlier as his pen moved quickly across the rest of the session’s LGBTQ bills, and it’s been 40 years since a governor’s veto was overturned. And the other bills signed by Newsom affirmed the work California Democrats had done to make their state a “sanctuary” for transgender people, such as a new law that would fine schools for banning textbooks with pro-LGBTQ themes.

On Monday, asked by Semafor about the veto during a call with other Democratic Party officials, Newsom said that they’d “stood tall against all the regression that you’ve seen in red state after red state.” Anyone concerned with these issues, he said, knew which party would defend them.

“As it relates to the details of the bill, as it relates to the details and the nuances around making court determinations and decisions, I felt like that was not necessary,” said Newsom. “But as it relates to the advancement of the rights of the trans community, these folks on the other side have this zest for demonization — no humility, no grace.”

THE VIEW FROM CONSERVATIVES

Republicans say they do in fact plan to put trans issues front and center during next year’s elections.

Winless statewide, California conservatives flipped some school boards last year with campaigns that pushed back on transgender policies. They saw Newsom’s veto as insincere — and a sign they were gaining ground by highlighting bills that could pass in Sacramento but alienate red state voters and California moderates.

“We have regular parents watching these hearings, posting clips of these hearings, then going viral, with news stories being written on them,” said Jonathan Zachreson, a co-founder of Protect Kids California. “It’s been helpful in getting the craziness of California out there in the national media.”

Zachreson’s group is trying to get three ballot measures in front of voters next year: A parental notification requirement, a ban on trans athletes in girls’ sports, and a ban on gender-affirming care for minors. Later today, the California Policy Center is organizing a rally near the site of the second GOP presidential debate; Lance Christensen, its VP for Education Policy and Government Affairs, said that Newsom had probably done activists a favor by vetoing one bill that would be hard to explain to voters, and signing the rest.

“They’ll send their nastygrams, and act really angry in the media,” said Christensen, who won 36% of the vote in a 2022 bid for state superintendent of education. “Behind the scenes they know that he’ll sign any bill they put up going forward.”

NOTABLE

  • In Unherd, Eliza Mondegreen suggests that Newsom’s veto was “yet another sign that the political, legal, and social calculus on trans issues is shifting.”
  • In the Sacramento Bee, Andrew Sheeler highlights the timing of the veto and the quick Newsom signatures on other bills: “a day after outraging advocates.”
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States of Play

Michigan. President Biden became the first sitting president to walk a picket line on Tuesday, joining striking UAW workers at the Willow Run parts center near Ypsilanti, Mich. He spent just 10 minutes at the site, delivering short remarks through a bullhorn, urging the auto makers to give workers what they’d “earned,” including a significant pay raise. “They’re doing incredibly well,” said Biden. “Guess what? You should be doing incredibly well, too.” Donald Trump will visit the state on Wednesday, with an event at non-union Drake Enterprises in Macomb County.

North Carolina. Gov. Roy Cooper said that he’d allow a Republican-written budget to become law, without his signature, ending a lengthy standoff between the GOP supermajority and the two-term Democrat. Cooper got Medicaid expansion, a longtime priority that the gerrymandered GOP legislature opposed; Republicans got a lot more, exempting the legislative branch from the state’s public records law, expanding its control over judicial appointments, and giving new powers to the Committee on Government Operations, which their party has used to investigate Cooper’s administration. The budget will allow “GovOps” to obtain records from any government agency or a contractor working with it. “The hypothetical consequences are quite severe,” said state Sen. Graig Meyer, a Democrat.

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Long before the Dobbs decision, Republicans and anti-abortion activists were trying to shift the debate to offense on Democratic turf. Why did their candidates get so many questions about the limits they’d put on abortion, and Democrats get so few about their opposition to limits? That’s the theme of this edition’s paid ads.

Virginia House Republican Caucus, “No Limits.” In 2019, Virginia Del. Kathy Tran stumbled in a discussion about her bill to loosen late-term abortion limits, by allowing one doctor — down from three — to approve the procedure if a woman’s health was in danger. Gov. Ralph Northam, asked about this, described a situation where an unviable infant would be left to die. And in 2023, Virginia’s senate Democrats voted on a possible amendment to the state constitution that would protect abortion rights, without caveats. All of that makes it into this ad against this year’s Democratic legislative candidates, warning that they want unlimited abortion rights, dramatized by a newborn baby being delivered to an uncertain fate.

Protect Women Ohio, “Join Them.” The anti-abortion campaign against Ohio’s “Right to Make Reproductive Decisions” amendment cites both Joe Biden and Donald Trump — Biden in a 2007 “Meet the Press” interview, Trump in the third 2016 presidential debate. In the first clip, Biden, who had yet to move left on the issue, says that he supports a ban on late-term abortions; in the second, Trump describes an infant being ripped from a womb and slaughtered. “Republicans and Democrats oppose the late term abortion allowed under Issue 1,” a (female) narrator explains.

Tim Scott for America, “Extremist.” Donald Trump has repeatedly refused to clarify what federal limits he’d support on abortion — and criticized six-week limits as political “disaster.” Nikki Haley has side-stepped the issue, explaining that no limit has the support to pass the Senate. Scott and Mike Pence are the only rivals interested in criticizing those takes. In this spot, running on Newsmax, Scott warns of an abortion-on-demand dystopia if Democrats win (“poor single mothers like mine will be told aborting their children will help the economy”) and says that some unnamed Republicans “want to retreat on life.”

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Polls

This is the second poll in a week to find DeSantis collapsing in New Hampshire since summer, and Haley gaining at his expense. The reasons are consistent: DeSantis has grown less popular, under attack from Trump and identified with a social conservative agenda that plays worse in New Hampshire than in any other early primary state. DeSantis gets single-digit support from “moderate” and “liberal” voters, as they migrate to Haley; he’s fallen back to a 29-point net favorable rating, compared to 37 points for Haley. Trump’s own support has barely budged all year, but what had been a two-man race in March, with DeSantis trailing him by 13 points, is now a quagmire with no candidate consolidating the anti-Trump vote — and with most Republicans ready to accept Trump again.

The topline of this poll was so horrendous for Biden, showing such weakness with voters who typically support him, that the pollsters acknowledged it as an outlier. But the sour feelings voters have about Biden aren’t changing, even if you spot him 10 points. It’s nearly unheard of for a Democratic president to get as much blame for a shutdown started by House Republicans — as in 2013, it’s their right flank that’s reluctant to fund the government. At that time, voters blamed the GOP for the crisis by a 23-point margin, and in 2019, when Democrats refused to fund a border wall, voters blamed Trump for the shutdown by a 19-point margin.

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2024
REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/File Photo

White House. Eight Republicans made the cut for Wednesday’s GOP primary debate in southern California, and seven will accept the invitation: Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Tim Scott, Mike Pence, Chris Christie, and Doug Burgum. Of the candidates who qualified for last month’s debate in Milwaukee, just one, Asa Hutchinson, missed the polling threshold and the stage.

Hutchinson, who told Semafor that he’d made the 50,000-donor threshold, said that missing the debate wouldn’t end his campaign. “This is too important,” he explained in a Friday interview at Texas Tribune’s annual “TribFest” in Austin. “I believe that people ought to make the decision — voters. The first cut at that is in Iowa, and I expect to be there.”

Fox Business will host the debate, moderated by Stuart Varney and Dana Perino, two longtime Fox News personalities who can sharply criticize progressives.

Senate. New Jersey Sen. Bob Mendendez’s Friday indictment, released 10 months after Semafor first reported that he was under investigation, pulled his first serious primary challenger off the sidelines: Rep. Andy Kim, the 41-year old Democrat from south Jersey. “Not something I expected to do,” Kim wrote on Saturday, “but NJ deserves better.” First elected in the 2018 wave, Kim benefited from redistricting in 2021, and raised more than $7 million to defend his seat.

At a Monday press conference, where he spoke in English and Spanish but took no questions, Menendez didn’t say specifically whether he’d seek re-election, but Gov. Phil Murphy had urged him to resign; in 2015, the first time Menendez was indicted, Gov. Chris Christie would have had the power to replace him, which made Democrats reluctant to demand his resignation. New Jersey First Lady Tammy Murphy is also considering a challenge to Menendez.

House. The Supreme Court rejected Alabama’s effort to keep Republican-drawn maps that defied a lower court’s ruling, and created just one majority-Black House seat. The lower court was set to take over and draw new maps that would comply with the Voting Rights Act, a process that will continue now that appeals have been exhausted.

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Next
  • One day until the second GOP presidential debate
  • 18 days until elections in Louisiana
  • 42 days until elections in Kentucky, Louisiana, New Jersey, Mississippi, and Virginia
  • 111 days until the Iowa caucuses
  • 407 days until the 2024 presidential election
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