Principals

1. GOP debate night
2. Trump visits Michigan
3. McConnell and McCarthy at odds
4. GOP holds first impeachment inquiry hearing
5. Senate formalizes dress code

PDB: Voters — optimistically! — think Congress will avoid shutdown

Biden talks democracy in Arizona … Kari Lake will run for Senate … WSJ: Nagorno-Karabakh ceases to exist

— edited by Benjy Sarlin, Jordan Weissmann and Morgan Chalfant

Reagan Library showdown

Wednesday’s Republican debate was a lot like the first one, Semafor’s political team reports: The candidates argued over Ukraine, tossed some snowballs at Donald Trump, and hurled grenades at Vivek Ramaswamy (“Every time I hear you, I feel a little bit dumber,” Nikki Haley told him at one point). Tim Scott got a more prominent introduction to the Republican electorate this time, mixing it up with his rivals more and declaring, “I have been discriminated against, but America is not a racist country.” Ron DeSantis turned in another solid, if unspectacular, performance as he tried to regain some semblance of momentum. “Donald Trump is missing in action — he should be on this stage tonight,” he said in an early answer, one of several swipes at the frontrunner. But none of it looked likely to change the fundamental state of the race much, which is good news for Trump, whose lead reached new heights after the previous debate. If it turns out he really is on the verge of capturing the nomination by acclaim, the most significant 2024 news last night may have been at his Michigan event, where he half-jokingly ruled out picking any of his campaign rivals as a running mate.

Trump makes his pitch to auto workers

While his opponents sweated it out under the debate stage lights, Donald Trump addressed an adoring crowd at a truck parts plant in Michigan Thursday, his effort to court blue-collar auto workers against the backdrop of the ongoing UAW strike. The setting at a non-union factory — with reportedly just a handful of striking workers mixed into the audience — raised some eyebrows, especially after President Biden’s historic visit to the picket line. And Trump played down the strike itself, arguing Biden’s push for electric vehicles would “destroy our automobile industry” and send its jobs to China. “You’re striking for wages but you know your job is only going to be here for two years or three years if you’re lucky,” he said. Still, Trump repeatedly called for an endorsement from UAW president Shawn Fain, who has slammed the former president in the press even as he has yet to officially back Biden. “Your leadership should endorse me and I won’t say a bad thing about them again,” he said.

McConnell calls shutdowns ‘political loser’

With the country barreling toward a government shutdown Sunday, the House and Senate might as well be operating in different universes. In the upper chamber, both parties are laboring to pass a short-term spending bill. During his weekly press conference, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said shutdowns have “always been a loser for Republicans politically,” and offered a stark warning to his House colleagues. “We can fund the government for another six weeks, or we can shut the government down in exchange for zero meaningful progress on policy,” he said.

Along with the rhetorical sticks, Senate Republicans are offering carrots. Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, the top Republican on the Appropriations Committee, said she’s crafting a border security amendment to entice House Republicans to support a short term spending bill. (Measures in the mix include increasing federal funding to hire border patrol agents, erect additional physical barriers, and install more sensor technology to deter migrants).

But by the end of the day, House Republicans seemed unmoved, with hardliners still firmly opposed to any stopgap measure to prevent a shutdown. Even funding for border security quickly fell flat with McCarthy, who said more spending wouldn’t be enough without major border policy changes. His allies agreed. “You’d have to have some form of securing the southern border, not just money, but actually policies the money is paying for,” Rep. Kevin Hern, R-Okla. told reporters.

— Joseph Zeballos-Roig

The inquiry begins

Republicans have already warned that the first hearing of their official impeachment inquiry is “not expected to cover new ground,” as House Oversight Chair James Comer put it recently. Instead, they’ll be talking to some by-now familiar witnesses on Thursday about Hunter Biden’s finances and dubious business dealings, which have yet to be connected back to his father. Left-leaning pundits are dismissing the curtain-raiser out of hand. “The hearing’s aim is not to present evidence that bolsters the central allegation — in part because it’s not clear what the central allegation is,” wrote the Washington Post’s Philip Bump.

Still, along with a lengthy memo outlining the inquiry’s rationale, the GOP is breaking out new material: House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith released more than 700 pages of additional IRS whistleblower documents on Wednesday, which he said showed “Hunter Biden’s business was selling the Biden ‘brand’ and that access to the White House was his family’s most valuable asset.” As for the looming shutdown? GOP leaders are promising the inquiry will continue through it: Even if government funding lapses, hearings are still allowed.

A suitable compromise

The Senate voted to adopt a formal dress code — which includes a coat, tie, and long pants for men — on the chamber’s floor following a heated debate over Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s plans to drop the chamber’s informal rules. Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., at the center of the debate due to his shorts-and-sweatshirt look, responded with a smirking Kevin James meme. As part of the deal, he agreed to enter and preside over the chamber in a suit, but “would continue to wear casual attire in the cloak room,” according to CNN’s Manu Raju.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: As Speaker Kevin McCarthy looks to pin blame for a potential shutdown on the White House, he hasn’t met or spoken with President Biden — nor any members of his Cabinet — since negotiations began. (That said, McCarthy’s team is in touch with Biden aides Steve Ricchetti and Shuwanza Goff.)

Playbook: GOP candidates leveled sharper criticism at Trump this time around, and at each other — but the night was unlikely to “change the contours of the GOP primary.”

The Early 202: The looming shutdown barely got a mention in Wednesday night’s Republican debate.

Axios: The seven candidates on stage in Simi Valley are polling collectively at 37% — which is 16 points lower than Trump.

White House

• President Biden will deliver another speech about protecting democracy today from Tempe, Ariz. A White House official says the remarks will center on “the importance of America’s institutions in preserving our democracy and the need for constant loyalty to the U.S. Constitution.” (In other words: Remember Jan. 6?) Biden will explicitly criticize the “MAGA Movement,” according to an excerpt of his speech.
• Biden will also honor the late Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. by announcing funding from the American Rescue Plan for the McCain Library.

Congress

• Good news for legal weed advocates: The Senate Banking Committee voted to advance a bill that would make it easier for banks to do business with cannabis dispensaries. The bad news? It faces trouble in the House, where Republicans including Financial Services Committee Chair Patrick McHenry, R-N.C. are opposed. “I’m not for the bill. I wasn’t for the bill four years ago and I’m not for it today,” McHenry told Semafor’s Joseph Zeballos-Roig.
• Bipartisan lawmakers in the House defeated efforts to curtail Ukraine funding in the annual Pentagon appropriations bill, but the votes signaled a growing resistance among House Republicans to further assistance. — Politico
• GOP Reps. Jason Smith, Mike Gallagher, and Cathy McMorris Rogers sent a letter to Ford accusing the company of dodging their inquiries about its deal with Chinese battery maker CATL. In an email, a Ford spokeswoman said the company had answered multiple congressional letters “correcting misinformation” about plans for a now-paused battery plant in Michigan.

Outside the Beltway

• In an interview with Semafor, California Gov. Gavin Newsom called on Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J. to resign, citing the need for the Democratic Party to draw an effective contrast with former President Donald Trump.
• San Francisco Mayor London Breed is facing some criticism over her plan to make welfare contingent on drug screening.

National Security

• Chinese hackers who accessed government email accounts earlier this year stole 60,000 emails from the State Department alone. — New York Times
• Israel became the 41st country to be accepted into the U.S. Visa Waiver program.

Courts

• Judge Tanya Chutkan refused former President Donald Trump’s request that she recuse herself from his election interference trial in Washington.
• Sen. Robert Menendez waded past a mob of courthouse photographers on his way to pleading not guilty to corruption charges Wednesday in Manhattan. Menendez faces more calls to resign, including from the No. 2 Senate Democrat, Dick Durbin, D-Ill.

Polls

• Hope springs eternal: 53% of voters say they believe Congress will avoid a government shutdown, according to new polling from the Democratic firm Navigator first shared with Semafor. The survey also found that Americans are slightly more likely to blame Democrats and President Biden if a shutdown occurs than they are Republicans in Congress — 36% to 34% — though the difference is within the margin of error.
• Republican voters are more likely to see former President Donald Trump as a man of faith than any of his GOP primary opponents except Mike Pence, according to a HarrisX poll for the Deseret News.

Blindspot

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, according to data from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer, R-Ky. said this week that his committee obtained 2019 bank wires from Chinese nationals to Hunter Biden that listed then-candidate Joe Biden’s Delaware home as a beneficiary address.

What the Right isn’t reading: The Justice Department sued eBay, accusing the company of selling harmful products in violation of the Clean Air Act.

What issue are you spending the most time on lately?

There are so many hot button issues happening all over the world right now, it’s really impossible to pick one. I care a lot about getting to the bottom of how things went so horribly wrong in Afghanistan both to provide answers to our Gold Star families and veterans, and to ensure something like that never happens again. Another top priority is making sure we are taking the necessary steps to win the great power competition with the Chinese Communist Party. This is a generational threat that we must address today. We can’t leave it for our children because by then, it will be too late.

You just led a delegation to Europe. What was the most interesting thing you heard on that trip?

Both Sweden and Finland really stressed their determination to truly contribute to NATO – I think they are going to be great partners who will bring important tools to our alliance. We also got a chance to learn about the more than 50,000 underground bunkers in Finland that have enough space for their entire population of 4.8 million people in case of an emergency.

Which Democrat do you like working with most and why?

I always enjoy working with my good friend Henry Cuellar – especially when it comes to border security and helping the people of Texas. And it’s been an honor to work alongside Greg Meeks, who is my Democrat counterpart on the Foreign Affairs Committee. We both understand that when it comes to national security issues, politics should stop at the water’s edge. We’ve been able to get a lot of really great bipartisan bills passed through the committee, including the recent bipartisan deal on AUKUS submarine transfer legislation.

What’s your favorite D.C. dive? 

It’s a tie between Ted’s Bulletin and Tune Inn.

Favorite Austin haunt?

We love Maudie’s. It’s close to our house and my family and I go there almost every time I’m home. They’ve got the best Mexican food around.

What’s the movie that you’ve seen the most times?

Gladiator