Principals

1. US tries to sway Israel
2. Palestinian views of US plunge
3. GOP family dispute
4. Emhoff allegations
5. Jack Smith’s new filing
6. Bipartisan China pressure
7. Biden signs chips bill

PDB: Low Supreme Court approval ahead of new term

Biden surveys Helene damage in Georgia, Florida … Trump, Harris in Michigan … WaPo: Escalating South China Sea tensions disrupt undersea cables

Biden looks to avoid Israeli strike on Iran nuclear sites

The Biden administration is discouraging Israel from striking Iran’s nuclear sites in response to a large missile attack earlier this week. Biden made clear he does not support such a strike, which some Israeli politicians have advocated for, though he noted the US and its allies are discussing further sanctions to punish Tehran. The Biden administration is “settling for limiting Israel’s response” instead of discouraging it entirely, Politico reports, noting that the circumstances present the latest test of the president’s influence. Israel and Iran may well be headed toward direct conflict, with one former senior Israeli security official telling The New York Times: “We have a consensus in Israel — among the military, the defense experts, analysts and politicians — that Israel should respond in force to Iran’s attack.” As the globe watches for its response to Iran, Israel struck Beirut overnight in its campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah.

Palestinians hold bleak views of US leadership

Palestinians living in the West Bank and East Jerusalem are extremely negative on the US. Nearly seven in 10 Palestinians polled by Gallup strongly disagreed that “the U.S. has made acceptable efforts to push for the safeguarding of civilians in Gaza.” A nearly identical share said the US has not done enough to ensure humanitarian aid reaches Palestinians in Gaza. The opinions echo the outrage among Muslim Americans that the Biden administration has grappled with amid the war. Meanwhile, Palestinian approval of US leadership has sunk to 5%, their lowest point. Gallup polled Palestinians living in West Bank and East Jerusalem during July and August, and was unable to poll Palestinians in Gaza due to the security situation there.

Republicans heading for dispute over raising child tax credit

Republicans are on the verge of a family dispute – literally. On one side of the party’s divide are socially conservative groups focused on the benefits of promoting bigger families in America, who have long had a champion in JD Vance, Semafor’s Joseph Zeballos-Roig writes. But fiscal hawks are skeptical about Vance’s bid to use the tax code to boost falling birthrates. Trump has yet to endorse Vance’s $5,000 child tax credit pitch. Even so, some conservative groups are zeroing in on a boosted child tax credit as their top priority next year, since the current credit will drop to $1,000 in 2026 if Congress doesn’t act. “I know that there’s a lot of disagreement within the Republican Party on this,” Jon Schweppe, policy director at the American Principles Project, told Semafor. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee visited Capitol Hill last week to speak to Republican staffers about establishing the child tax credit, paid family leave, and baby bonuses.

Second gentleman becomes a target

Half of the political world focused Wednesday on a Daily Mail report that second gentleman Doug Emhoff “forcefully slapped ex-girlfriend for flirting with another man” at Cannes in 2012. Others (including Semafor) haven’t matched the reporting, and as of Wednesday evening the incident didn’t appear in The New York Times or top outlets. But the allegations are a dominant narrative in conservative media: Megyn Kelly’s coverage had more than 150,000 views on YouTube, while Trump aide Stephen Miller demanded answers. In a statement to Semafor, a spokesperson for Emhoff said “this report is untrue,” and that “any suggestion that he would or has ever hit a woman is false.” This is a new campaign front: Emhoff has been a key Harris’ advocate, cast as a relatable, enlightened “wife guy” and father who “discussed the feminism of Pearl Jam.” Now he’s a target. A New York Post columnist wrote that if “Emhoff is the new face of masculinity, the Dems are up a creek.”

— Max Tani

Special counsel details evidence in Trump election case

Special counsel Jack Smith laid out his case that Donald Trump should not be immune from federal prosecution for attempting to overturn the 2020 election results. The sprawling 165-page filing made public by a DC judge is filled with new details: it says that Trump expressed indifference when an aide told him about efforts to keep then-Vice President Mike Pence safe on Jan. 6. “So what?” Trump said to the aide, according to prosecutors. Smith is trying to convince the judge that the case should survive after the Supreme Court ruled that presidents are immune from prosecution for official acts. “At its core, the defendant’s scheme was a private criminal effort. In his capacity as a candidate he used deceit to target every stage of the electoral process,” Smith wrote. On Truth Social, Trump responded: “ELECTION INTERFERENCE!”

China’s domestic struggles won’t change its path in Washington

Democrats and Republicans will pile new pressure on China next year, no matter who wins the White House or holds control of Congress, Semafor’s Morgan Chalfant and Burgess Everett write. That means aggressive tariffs, more aid to Taiwan, and a crackdown on Chinese technology — olive branches will be in short supply, even as domestic growth in America’s chief economic rival slows. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said that new tough-on-China measures could make it into “must-pass legislation before the end of this year.” China hawks are still trying to pass legislation restricting outbound US investment in critical sectors there, so far an elusive target. And China select committee chair Rep. John Moolenaar said the US needs to be prepared for Chinese leader Xi Jinping “to move up his schedule” for a possible Taiwan invasion “if China’s economy worsens.”

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Controversial chips bill becomes law

President Biden signed a bill Wednesday that weakens federal environmental requirements for some semiconductor manufacturing projects. The legislation, co-sponsored by Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., split the Democratic Party, with some members and environmental groups criticizing it for undercutting efforts to combat climate change. “I think it was a mistake,” Rep. Zoe Lofgren, D-Calif., who along with others unsuccessfully urged Biden to veto the legislation, told The New York Times. The law is a win for the semiconductor industry, which has pushed for relaxing environmental rules associated with the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act that unlocked billions in government grants for chip firms to build domestic manufacturing plants.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Tensions among House Republicans have “all but doomed” the prospects of a kids online protection bill passing this year.

Playbook: When former GOP Rep. Liz Cheney campaigns with Kamala Harris today in Wisconsin, the two will deliver a “country over party message,” according to a senior Harris campaign official. Harris will also directly appeal to Republicans and independents.

WaPo: Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, appears to be making an early play for Republican leader in case House Republicans lose the majority in November or decide to ditch House Speaker Mike Johnson. His strategy involves sharing a lot of money to the National Republican Congressional Committee and positioning himself “as a potential bridge between House Republicans and the MAGA front line.”

Axios: JD Vance’s folksy demeanor in Tuesday’s debate with Tim Walz was deliberately planned to surprise his opponent. “We figured it would throw him off,” a close Vance adviser said. “Democrats and much of the media bought their own false caricature of JD that he was just some heartless fire-breather.”

White House

• President Biden will spend the day touring areas of Georgia and Florida hit by Hurricane Helene and meeting with local communities affected by the disaster. Biden took an aerial tour of the damage caused by the storm in North and South Carolina and was briefed on recovery efforts on Wednesday, while Kamala Harris received updates on the responses in Georgia while visiting there.

Congress

• The National Republican Senatorial Committee shifted its ad strategy to save money. — Politico
• Sen. Sherrod Brown’s, D-Ohio, campaign raised a record $30.6 million in the third quarter of 2024.

Outside the Beltway

• New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams, Eric Adams’ potential replacement as mayor, took political donations from a businessman ensnared in the Adams corruption case. — WSJ

Economy

• Saudi oil minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said oil prices could fall to $50 per barrel if cheaters in OPEC+ don’t abide by the cartel’s production agreements. — WSJ

Courts

• An appeals court ruled that Americans can bet on the outcome of congressional elections.
• Indicted New York Mayor Eric Adams might face additional federal charges.

Polls

• Majorities of Americans have little trust in the federal government’s judicial branch and disapprove of the job the Supreme Court is doing, as the high court prepares to begin another term next week, according to Gallup. The gaps between views among Republicans and Democrats on both of these questions are at near-record highs. While 72% of Republicans approve of the Supreme Court, only 15% of Democrats feel the same.
• Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump 52% to 48% among likely voters in Wisconsin, according to a Marquette University Law School poll.

On the Trail

• Donald Trump’s campaign said it raised $160 million last month.
• Melania Trump defends abortion rights in her upcoming memoir. — The Guardian
• Kamala Harris’ national security adviser, Phil Gordon, met Wednesday with American Muslim and Arab leaders as her campaign tries to win back voters who are angry at US support of Israel’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon.

National Security

• The CIA is trying harder to recruit Chinese citizens who may be dissatisfied with Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s rule. — Bloomberg
• The Department of Homeland Security warned of a “heightened threat environment” in the US ahead of the Oct. 7 Hamas attack anniversary and the November presidential election.
• Meddling foreign adversaries will not be able to have an impact on the outcome of the US presidential race, a top US cybersecurity official said. — AP

Foreign Policy

• Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei urged Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah to flee Lebanon in the days before he was killed in an Israeli air strike last week, and he is now concerned about Israeli infiltration of the government in Tehran. — Reuters

Technology

• OpenAI raised $6.6 billion in new funding.
• Elon Musk has given millions more to Republican causes for far longer than known previously. — WSJ

Blindspot

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: Working class voters in Philadelphia have shifted to the right in recent years.

What the Right isn’t reading: A judge in Delaware dismissed a computer repairman’s defamation claims against media outlets regarding stories about Hunter Biden’s laptop.

Principals Team

Editors: Benjy Sarlin, Elana Schor, Morgan Chalfant

Reporters: Burgess Everett, Kadia Goba, Joseph Zeballos-Roig, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

Eleanor Holmes Norton is a Democrat who represents the District of Columbia in Congress.

• Gulf sovereign wealth fund in talks to invest in big US lender.
• ADNOC’s still on the hunt after $13 billion acquisition.
• A London lawsuit could amp up environmental pressure on big businesses.