Principals

1. Oct. 7 anniversary
2. New Supreme Court term
3. Cost of Harris, Trump agendas
4. Top NRSC job
5. Democracy worries
6. Walz, Harris hit the airwaves

PDB: Can Obama save Democrats’ Senate majority?

Hurricane Milton barrels toward Florida … Nobel Prize awarded to Americans for microRNA discovery … NYT: The Middle East crisis in photographs

Israel, US mark one year since Hamas attack

US authorities are on alert for potential threats today, the anniversary of the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel that spurred the Gaza war and inflamed tensions in the broader Middle East. The FBI and Department of Homeland Security warned the anniversary “may be a motivating factor for violent extremists and hate crime perpetrators to engage in violence or threaten public safety.” Jonathan Greenblatt, CEO of the Anti-Defamation League, predicted an uptick in anti-Israel activity on US college campuses. President Biden and first lady Jill Biden will remember the victims with a yahrzeit candle-lighting ceremony at the White House this morning, while Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will deliver remarks at their own events. Israel launched its heaviest assault yet on Beirut and new strikes in Gaza, a sign its multi-front war against Hamas and Hezbollah has no end in sight.

Must-watch cases before the Supreme Court

The Supreme Court returns to the bench today, kicking off a term during which the justices will weigh cases on transgender care bans, firearms, vaping regulations, and potentially election-related disputes. The court will hear one closely watched case on Tuesday: a challenge to Biden administration “ghost gun” regulations. This term, the justices will also hear a challenge to a Tennessee law banning puberty blockers and gender-transition surgeries for minors. While the high court added about a dozen cases to its lineup last week, the schedule is still relatively light — and some experts believe that’s by design. “The court may have deliberately lightened its load in anticipation of some election litigation,” one lawyer told The New York Times. “It has the potential to be a major distraction from the court’s ordinary work.” The high court, already facing a crisis in public confidence, is loath to step into that spotlight.

Trump, Harris agendas would add trillions to national debt

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget released an analysis Monday that sizes up the costs of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump’s economic platforms. The nonpartisan budget watchdog says Harris’ agenda would add $3.5 trillion over 10 years to the national debt, while the Trump plan will pile on $7.5 trillion. With interest payments nearly doubling since 2020, fiscal hawks are pushing both candidates to tackle the $35 trillion national debt. “The next president is going to have to level with the American people about the need to stop borrowing so much, and pandering on everything from taxes to Social Security is not a good start,” CRFB president Maya MacGuineas told Semafor. One big similarity between Harris and Trump: Extending certain sunsetting provisions of the GOP tax law next year accounts for the priciest plank of their dueling agendas.

— Joseph Zeballos-Roig

Missouri senator weighs NRSC bid

Missouri GOP Sen. Eric Schmitt is considering whether to run the Senate GOP’s campaign cycle next year, a difficult job for anyone who takes it. The freshman senator is aligned with Donald Trump and his party’s more populist wing. He came into the Senate as a bit of rabble-rouser, trying to grab a seat on the Judiciary Committee and opposing Mitch McConnell as leader. But these days he’s getting encouragement from top Republicans within the conference to take the position, according to a person familiar with the conversations. Whoever takes it faces a tough map: Senate Republicans will have to hold seats in Maine, North Carolina, Iowa, and Texas in 2026, though there will be pick-up opportunities in Georgia, New Hampshire and Michigan. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York has thrown her hat in the ring on the Democratic side.

— Burgess Everett

Voters worried about democracy, violence ahead of election

Eight-in-10 US likely voters believe that democracy is under major threat, even as far fewer see protecting democracy as the most important issue to them in the upcoming election. Twenty-two percent of likely voters said protecting democracy and freedoms is their top issue this election cycle, according to a poll from the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights shared exclusively with Semafor, compared with 42% who picked the economy and inflation and 33% who said immigration and border security. The survey comes as Kamala Harris leans into attacks on Donald Trump as a threat to the republic in the final weeks of her campaign. The new poll also found that 73% of likely voters are very or somewhat worried about political violence following the election, though there is a significant difference between liberals (92%), moderates (68%) and conservatives (63%).

A late Harris, Walz media blitz

Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate, Tim Walz, are hitting the national media circuit this week — the first major blitz of their eleventh-hour presidential campaign. On Sunday, the popular podcast Call Her Daddy dropped its interview with Harris, and tonight CBS News’ 60 Minutes will air its full special with the vice president. Harris will also appear in a Univision town hall and sit for interviews with The View, Howard Stern, and Stephen Colbert. After an appearance on Sunday with Fox News, Walz will appear on Jimmy Kimmel’s late night show and in local media in key states. Walz will also appear on the SmartLess podcast this week, Semafor has learned. The ramp-up represents a shift in strategy for the ticket, which has been slower to book media appearances than Donald Trump and JD Vance.

— Max Tani

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Seventy-two percent of senior Capitol Hill staffers predicted that Kamala Harris will win the November presidential election.

Playbook: Republican groups are spending twice as much on the Senate race in Pennsylvania than they are in Michigan.

WaPo: Tom Nides, the former US ambassador to Israel under President Biden, insisted that the notion the Democratic Party has shifted on Israel in the past year “is just not true.”

Axios: House Democrats are launching billboards in two-dozen districts criticizing Project 2025, leaning into those attacks in the final weeks of campaign season.

White House

• President Biden is planning more student loan relief. — Bloomberg
• Vice President Harris said on CBS 60 Minutes that the US would not stop “putting that pressure” on Israel to reach a ceasefire agreement with Hamas. She also wouldn’t say whether the US has a close ally in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
• FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell criticized Donald Trump for spreading “ridiculous and just plain false” information about the Biden administration’s disaster relief efforts following Hurricane Helene.

Congress

• House Speaker Mike Johnson is visiting North Carolina on Wednesday in the wake of Hurricane Helene. He also signaled Congress would take its time to pass additional disaster relief funding.

Outside the Beltway

• Parts of Florida began to evacuate in preparation for Hurricane Milton.

Business

• Activist investor Starboard Value now has a $1 billion stake in struggling pharmaceutical giant Pfizer and wants it to turn around its performance. — WSJ
• Boeing and striking machinists will return to the bargaining table today.

On the Trail

• Donald Trump returned to the site of the attempted assassination against him in Butler, Pa., over the weekend to campaign with Elon Musk.
• Kamala Harris is trying to figure out how to put more distance between herself and President Biden. — CNN
• Democrats hope that Barack Obama’s purple state magic could help them hold onto the Senate in November, Semafor’s Burgess Everett and David Weigel reported.

Foreign Policy

• Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout, also known as the “Merchant of Death” and exchanged in late 2022 for American basketball player Brittney Griner, is brokering a deal with Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen for small arms. — WSJ
• China and North Korea marked 75 years of diplomatic ties and reaffirmed plans to deepen cooperation.
• One year after Oct. 7, many residents in Israeli villages most damaged by the Hamas attack are still living in temporary housing. — NYT

Energy

• Oil companies are telling Republicans not to gut the Inflation Reduction Act. — WSJ

Media

• New York Sun owner Dovid Efune is nearing a deal to acquire UK newspaper The Telegraph for at least $720 million. — FT

Big Read

• The Wall Street Journal examines the growing influence of Donald Trump Jr. in his father’s orbit, including convincing him to name JD Vance as his running mate. “I expended about 1,000% of my political capital” convincing Donald Trump to choose his friend Vance, Trump Jr. told the publication, which labels the former president’s eldest son the “crown prince of MAGA world.” One former administration official said that Trump Jr. has filled the vacuum left by Jared Kushner, who along with his wife Ivanka Trump is sitting out a possible second Trump term.

Blindspot

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: A man set himself on fire during a pro-Palestinian demonstration in Washington, DC, over the weekend.

What the Right isn’t reading: The Biden administration directed $100 million in emergency funding to fix roads and bridges in North Carolina that were damaged by Hurricane Helene.

Principals Team

Editors: Benjy Sarlin, Elana Schor, Morgan Chalfant

Reporters: Burgess Everett, Kadia Goba, Joseph Zeballos-Roig, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

Hank Johnson is a Democratic congressman from Georgia. He serves on the House Judiciary Committee.

• Substack wants to do more than just newsletters.
• From Afrobeats to public policy: The reinvention of Banky W.
• Earth’s first-ever planetary defense test is nearing its end.