Africa

🌍 The IMF has joined the World Bank in projecting that sub-Saharan Africa will see slower economic growth in 2023. It forecasts a slowdown to 3.3% from 4% last year — which is only slightly better than the bank’s 2.5% outlook published last week. Both forecasts blame rising domestic interest rates to curb double-digit inflation and ongoing exchange rate challenges in many countries in the region, among other problems. IMF’s analysts forecast that sub-Saharan Africa’s economies will collectively bounce back in 2024 to around 4% in GDP growth. They say there have already been signs of recovery in the first half of 2023 with improvements in tourism, stronger-than-expected remittance inflows, rising agricultural output, and increased resource extraction.

🇳🇪 Niger’s ruling military junta demanded that the head of United Nations diplomatic mission leave the country within 72 hours, in a statement dated Oct.10. It accused the U.N. of excluding Niger from the body’s General Assembly last month and subsequent meetings of its agencies. Meanwhile, French troops began leaving the West African country on Tuesday — the same day on which the United States declared that the ousting of President Mohamed Bazoum on July 26 was a coup.

🇨🇩 An East African regional force deployed to restore stability in the DR Congo’s eastern region must leave the country due to a “lack of satisfactory results,” a government spokesman said. He said they must leave by Dec. 8. The country’s eastern region has long been overrun by armed groups including the M23 rebel group. The DRC government said M23 had refused to withdraw from the territories of Masisi, Rutshuru and Nyiragongo, in violation of the Luanda agreement that last year secured a cessation in hostilities between Congolese troops and the rebel group.

🇪🇬 Egypt has discussed plans with the United States and others to provide humanitarian aid through its border with the Gaza Strip. It follows a large-scale assault on Gaza by Israel that was carried out in response to a wave of attacks by Palestinian militant group Hamas. Despite discussing the provision of aid, Egypt has reportedly rejected any move to set up safe corridors for refugees fleeing the Gaza Strip. In a call on Thursday with the U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi “stressed the need to guarantee the regularity of humanitarian services and relief to the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip.”

The number of Nigerians that left the country to study in UK universities between 2017 and 2022, Nigeria’s interior minister Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo said this week, citing the Higher Education Statistics Agency, a British organization that publishes official data on student enrolment. Nigerian students are a significant presence in the UK: in the 2021/22 academic year, more first year students in the UK were from Nigeria (32,945) than from the European Union, according to HESA (only China and India had more).

Imam Mahmoud Dicko

Three years ago, Imam Mahmoud Dicko galvanized thousands of Malians in street protests against insecurity, corruption and a perceived failure by then president Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta to govern the West African country effectively. It culminated in the August 2020 coup that deposed Keïta, becoming a significant marker of Dicko’s influence in Malian civil society.

Dicko is now rousing public support again — this time against the ruling junta led by Colonel Assimi Goita. Despite calling off a protest march slated for this Friday (Oct. 13) against the military government, Dicko’s Coordination of Movements, Associations and Supporters (CMAS) has become one of the leading Malian pressure groups demanding a transition to civilian rule.

Born in Timbuktu in the 1950s and educated at Saudi Arabia’s Islamic University of Madinah, Dicko’s influence in Mali stems from his status as an imam with “an image of piousness” in a predominantly Muslim country. Several analyses have traced his ascent to Mali’s High Islamic Council which he led for 11 years from 2008.

While Dicko has been a pragmatic supporter of liberal democracy he also has a reputation for taking hard-line conservative positions on social issues in line with his religious philosophy. He came to prominence in 2009 by successfully campaigning against a family law reform for expanding women’s rights during the presidency of Amadou Toumani Touré. When a Tuareg rebellion in northern Mali precipitated the overthrow of Touré in 2012, Dicko backed Keïta for the presidency a year later and welcomed French troops’ intervention against the jihadist threat.

Mixing islamic conservatism and political activism has given Dicko ”a populist appeal" in Mali, writes Paul Melly, an analyst at the Chatham House think tank in London. But Dicko’s agitation could carry risk of personal harm: His motorcade was reportedly tear-gassed by Malian forces in January. And his passport was seized in June at an airport in the capital Bamako. Neither has deterred his latest push against the Malian power of the day.

“I will never collaborate with people who have confiscated the people’s revolution, and who are in the process of gagging those same people,” he is quoted as saying against a referendum on a constitution by Goïta’s regime. “[The military’s reign] is already over…I’d rather die than live as a traitor.”

— Alexander Onukwue

Wind energy installation projects in Africa have been growing at a steady pace since 2000, adding about 800 MW annually on average over the last five years, according to a new report from the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC). There are 223 projects in operation or under construction representing an installed capacity of 67 GW. Currently there are 83 installed wind farms providing 9 GW of power with the potential to increase by some 900%, the Status of Wind in Africa report claims.

While South Africa had the largest installed capacity by the end of 2022, leading as it has for some years, Egypt is likely to overtake it over the coming decade. The report’s authors says that’s thanks to the North African country’s “significant technical potential, existing installed capacity, established local manufacturing industry,” and numerous recently announced projects.

But more investment is needed to accelerate the current trajectory. “The strong pipeline of wind energy projects shown in the report is at risk without policy intervention, innovative financing models and supply chain localization,” said Wangari Muchiri, GWEC’s director of Africa Wind Power.

Ethiopian Stock Exchange

💰What is it?

The Ethiopian Securities Exchange (ESX) is a new $1 billion public private partnership spearheaded by the Ethiopian government scheduled to launch in mid-2024. It will be the country’s primary securities exchange. Ethiopia hasn’t had a stock exchange since the nationalization of financial institutions and major companies in 1974.

💰What is the big picture?

Prime minister Abiy Ahmed has been trying to open Ethiopia’s economy ever since he came to office in 2018. That vision has included allowing foreign telecoms players to compete in its market and opening up the banking sector. Those plans were upended by the brutal two-year civil war in the northern Tigray region which ended in November 2022. Now the Ethiopian government is keen to get back on track with the ESX. The hope is major companies will be able to raise funds by selling shares on the exchange to local and global investors. The exchange is also expected to offer a fundraising platform for small and medium-size enterprises.

💰Who is funding the ESX?

A quarter of the seed capital, $250 million, is to be provided by Ethiopia Investment Holdings, the country’s sovereign wealth fund established last year. Four state-owned enterprises, including Ethio Telecom and Ethiopian Insurance Corporation (EIC), signed a founding agreement in October and will contribute portions of the 25% under the EIH umbrella. Ethiopian officials in May disclosed plans to raise $750 million from private investors who would own 75% of the exchange.

💰 Which companies will be on the ESX?

The exchange aims to initially have 15 firms listed, including five state-owned enterprises as well as government treasuries in its first year. State-owned firms expected to list in the initial rounds include Ethio Telecom and Commercial Bank of Ethiopia. It plans to have 50 companies over the next decade. “Growth will be gradual. We will list firms from all walks, industries, SOEs, and private firms,” Tilahun Kassahun, senior project manager at the ESX project office, told Ethiopian newspaper The Reporter.

💰Who will regulate the Ethiopian Securities Exchange?

The Ethiopia Capital Market Authority (ECMA) was established in 2021 to regulate the country’s capital markets, in anticipation of the Ethiopian Securities Exchange (ESX) launch in 2024.

💰What are the risks?

Prolonged insecurity in parts of Ethiopia continues to hurt investor confidence. Interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of England (BoE), as well as weakening local currencies, are also concerns. Global geopolitical tensions such as the Russia-Ukraine war also pose serious risks to stock exchanges across Africa.

— Martin K.N Siele

Moove, a financing startup for Uber drivers in Africa, is adjusting its model to fit a demand for new cars on the continent.

Over the past year, some Moove-backed Uber drivers in Lagos have protested what they said was an unrealistic payment plan and burdensome work conditions. Moove reviewed its terms in response to the backlash, lowering daily repayments by 32% to 6,400 naira ($8) and and reducing the minimum working hours from 12 to 10.

In the two years since launch, Moove, which also operates in South Africa, Ghana, and Kenya has financed 3,000 cars in Nigeria for individuals looking to own cars and make a living by driving commercially, said Taiwo Ajibola, who leads operations in Nigeria. The company began by offering used Toyota cars with drivers taking full ownership of the car after repaying a loan over 18 months. But Moove’s best known product requires a customer to make an initial 50,000 naira ($65) deposit for a new Suzuki S-Presso car and repay a total 10.2 million naira ($13,263) bill over 48 months. Each driver is required to use the car exclusively on Uber with whom Moove has a partnership.

Some drivers and observers retain doubts about the startup’s business even after the review. One area of concern is the choice of the small Suzuki hatchbacks; Nigerian urban taxi drivers tend to prefer Toyota sedans for their resale value. Moove opted for the Suzuki model for what it claims is better fuel efficiency compared to Toyotas and adoption in India, Ajibola told Semafor Africa (the S-Presso brand is made in India by a Suzuki subsidiary). “Every new product in a market faces hesitancy from customers but we just need to keep pushing,” he said. The startup buys the cars from CFAO motors, an African dealership.

Moove’s push appears to be a long-term one that will be powered by venture capital and bank loans. It has raised $325 million in several funding rounds. About $175 million has been through debt, including $10 million secured from the U.S. investor BlackRock this year.

A painting by contemporary Ethiopian-American artist Julie Mehretu has set a new auction record for an African-born artist. The artwork, “Untitled (2001)”, was sold for $9.32 million last week at Sotheby’s Hong Kong. The sale broke the previous record held by South African artist Marlene Dumas whose 1995 work “The Visitor” sold in 2008 for $6.33 million at Sotheby’s London. Mehretu’s work is largely defined by abstraction and investigates recent world traumas. Demand for the artist’s work has risen amid a broader surge of interest in contemporary African art.

• Prominent African leaders say sovereign debt relief is needed for them to properly fight climate change — but the World Bank is sidestepping the thorny issue at its meeting in Morocco this week.
• In the era of the “buff business leader,” some tech workers have turned to a broad class of oral and injectable drugs, treatments, and supplements to improve their health and appearance.
• The race to select a new speaker in the U.S. House of Representatives might take a while, Republicans warn.

Happy 55th Independence day to the people of Equatorial Guinea 🇬🇶!!

If you’re enjoying the Semafor Africa newsletter and finding it useful, please share with your family, friends, student visa counselors, and holders of undervalued Ethiopian shares. We’d love to have them aboard, too.

Let’s make sure this email doesn’t end up in your junk folder by adding africa@semafor.com to your contacts. In Gmail you should drag this newsletter over to your ‘Primary’ tab.

You can reply to this email and send us your news tips, gossip, and good vibes.

— Yinka, Alexis, Alexander Onukwue, Martin Siele, and Muchira Gachenge