Principals

1. After Sinwar
2. Dems’ filibuster purist
3. Right presses super PAC
4. Optimistic retail sales
5. Bill tackles hostage-taking
6. India murder plot charges

PDB: Review calls for Secret Service overhaul

Biden in Germany … Harris to hit the trail with the Obamas … China’s economic growth slows

Sinwar’s death lifts hope for ceasefire

The killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the architect of the Oct. 7 attacks, is raising hopes — and doubts — about a pause in fighting in Gaza. After speaking to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Biden said he was more hopeful for a ceasefire, Kamala Harris said his death presented “an opportunity to finally end the war in Gaza,” and world leaders expressed optimism for an end to fighting. Netanyahu, however, said Israel would press on with the war against Hamas, warning the “task before us is not yet complete.” Israeli officials are worried about the fate of hostages who have been held by Hamas since the attack, Politico reported. US officials are assessing Sinwar’s possible successor, with one US official telling CNN that if his brother Mohammed Sinwar takes control, “negotiations are totally screwed.”

“When we announced on January 1 of 2022 that we planned to launch a new global news organization, it sounded a bit crazy — even to us,” Semafor’s co-founders Justin Smith and Ben Smith wrote this morning, on our second anniversary. “We’re proud to say that, even amid global conflicts and harsh domestic politics, we’ve held our ground on the core issue of political polarization. We’ve earned the trust of sophisticated people in leadership roles around the world by focusing on what you need to know — not just what you want to hear. We’ve separated news from opinion in our Semaform, brought room for civil disagreement across our products, and pulled in views from all over the world.”

Thank you from the team at Principals for reading our work and attending our events, for your feedback, and, of course, your tips. It’s been an exciting two years and we’re just getting started!

Merkley wants filibuster change — no matter who is in power

So much of the talk about changing the filibuster depends on who is in power. Jeff Merkley is trying to get beyond that. The Oregon Democrat is continuing his charge to install a talking filibuster in the Senate — which would undo the 60-vote threshold and result in a majority vote for legislation — despite the uncertainty of Senate control. “It’s not an authentic or legitimate strategy if you don’t see it working in the minority and the majority. And so I’m happy to talk about it, not knowing if we’ll be the majority or minority,” he told Semafor’s Burgess Everett. Merkley also said Democrats would still have the tools in the minority to beat back legislation like a national abortion ban. “We can force them to debate that for six weeks, and then the American people can weigh in,” Merkley said.

Mike Lee: More help needed for Ted Cruz and Rick Scott

Conservatives want Ted Cruz and Rick Scott to get more help in their re-election campaigns as the Mitch McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund focuses elsewhere in the final stretch. “I am worried about it. I think both Ted and Rick are ahead, but it’s closer than it should be,” Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, told Semafor. “It’s also troubling … there’s an inequity there. These guys are Republican colleagues, they’re in very close races in a general election, they could use help.” Both Texas and Florida tilt red, Scott has deep pockets, Cruz is a strong fundraiser, and both have candidate-specific super PACs supporting them. With all that in mind, McConnell and SLF are confident they will win. But Cruz himself has already vented about the disparity — it’s sure to be a topic next month during the GOP leadership election.

— Burgess Everett

Retail sales point to solid economy

New data suggests the economy is on solid footing as voters prepare to vote in November. Retail sales increased by 0.4% during September, beating expectations, as consumers increased their spending at restaurants, clothing and grocery stores, and other businesses, according to data from the Commerce Department. Unemployment claims for last week fell by 19,000 — an unexpected decline as the country grappled with the fallout of major hurricanes. Hurricane Milton’s impact may have not shown up yet, however. The news could be good for Kamala Harris, who has struggled to overcome Donald Trump’s lead on the economy. This is the last monthly retail sales report before the election, but the next monthly employment figures will come days before on Nov. 1.

New bill would toughen consequences for hostage-taking

A Republican congressman is introducing legislation to punish countries that take Americans hostage, amid fears about the rising use of the practice as a bargaining chip with the US. “The number of incidents in which American citizens have been taken hostage while traveling abroad is deeply disturbing, and foreign governments that repeatedly engage in this behavior must be held accountable,” Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., said in an announcement shared first with Semafor. The bill calls existing policies to hold states accountable for hostage-taking “insufficient” and proposes that countries designated as sponsors of wrongful detention be subject to sanctions and prohibited from receiving foreign assistance. Lawler is facing a tight race for reelection in one of the closest House contests of the 2024 campaign, as Democrats hope to retake the majority.

— Mathias Hammer

US charges Indian official over plot

The US charged an Indian official with plotting an assassination in New York. Federal prosecutors said Vikash Yadav — reportedly a former member of India’s RAW intelligence agency — paid a hitman to murder a US-Canadian member of a Sikh separatist movement. Yadav was allegedly also involved in the assassination of another Sikh separatist in Vancouver, Canada, last year. The move increases tensions between New Delhi and the West: Canada expelled six Indian diplomats this week over the extrajudicial killing with Ottawa saying there were “credible allegations” that New Delhi was involved. India has reciprocated and railed against Canada. “Will the strong words used by [New Delhi] to denounce Canada… now be directed at the US?” a prominent Indian journalist asked.

White House Climate Advisor Ali Zaidi will join the Sustainability session at the Fall Edition of Semafor’s World Economy Summit on Oct. 25. The discussion will focus on the challenges posed by climate change and what they mean for the future of climate finance, decarbonization, and food security.

RSVP to this session and the World Economy Summit here.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: The race to replace outgoing Rep. David Trone, D-Md., is heating up. Democrats are in danger of losing what was believed to be a safe seat, complicating their push to reclaim the House majority.

Playbook: Donald Trump may have backed out of a media interview because of “exhaustion,” although the campaign denies it.

WaPo: The crypto industry has stepped up political spending,

Axios: Kamala Harris’ lagging support among Black male voters could cost her several battleground states.

White House

• The Biden administration announced plans to allocate close to $2 billion for 32 projects designed to make the US power grid more resilient in the face of extreme weather.

Congress

• Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell privately described Donald Trump as “stupid” and “despicable” following the 2020 election, according to a new book. — AP
• House Armed Services Committee Chair Mike Rogers led a bipartisan delegation to Jordan and Israel, where the group met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Outside the Beltway

• New Yorkers who own second homes could be the deciding factor in the state’s most competitive congressional elections. — NYT

Economy

• Economists are divided on whether Kamala Harris’ housing plan would actually lead to the creation of 3 million new housing units. — NYT
• Kevin Hassett, an economic adviser to Donald Trump, defended the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut rates in September. — FT
• The European Central Bank cut its headline interest rates for the third time this year.

Business

• The Biden administration eased restrictions on space companies’ exports to ship certain satellite and spacecraft products to partners and allies.
• US lawmakers called for an investigation into McKinsey over its simultaneous work with China and the US military. — FT

Polls

• Forty-six percent of likely voters favor a Republican-controlled Senate versus 42% who prefer a Senate controlled by Democrats, according to a poll shared exclusively with Semafor by conservative-leaning Senate Opportunity Fund. The survey sampled 1,000 people between Monday and Wednesday.

On the Trail

• Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are both campaigning in Michigan today, zeroing in on a key swing state in the election.
• The Harris campaign is promoting a rally with a “surprise musical guest.” — Bloomberg
• Elon Musk attended another rally in support of Trump in Folsom, Pennsylvania.

National Security

• An independent review of the Secret Service ordered by President Biden called for an overhaul of the agency in the wake of the attempted assassination against Donald Trump during his July rally in Butler, Pa.

Foreign Policy

• Yahya Sinwar’s death was the result of a chance encounter. — NYT
• China mostly prefers Kamala Harris over Donald Trump. — Bloomberg
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy cited intelligence showing 10,000 North Korean soldiers plan to join Russia’s fight in Ukraine.

Technology

• Google plans to block election ads in the US on its platforms after polls close on Election Day. — Axios
• TikTok failed its policy on political ads, Global Witness said in a report.
• Meta Platforms fired two dozen employees in Los Angeles for buying household items with their $25 meal credits.

Media

• NewsNation is hosting a town hall with JD Vance that will be streamed on X on Oct. 24.
• Former NBC anchor Brian Williams will host election night coverage for Amazon Prime Video.

Blindspot

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that high debt and low growth are weighing on the global economy.

What the Right isn’t reading: CNN traced Donald Trump’s “Swiss-made” watches to a Wyoming shopping center.

Principals Team

Editors: Benjy Sarlin, Elana Schor, Morgan Chalfant

Reporters: Burgess Everett, Kadia Goba, Joseph Zeballos-Roig, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

Joel Benenson is a Democratic strategist and pollster. He recently announced plans to leave BSG, a firm he founded in 2000.