Gulf

1. Lucid CEO on PIF cash
2. Oman’s blockbuster IPO
3. Saudi eyes Zambian mines
4. World Bank’s gloomy report
5. A strategy for Gaza

Crypto bros unwind in a Dubai cat room.

Saudi Arabia’s Lucid dream

The head of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund may like his cars as much as his golf clubs. A PIF subsidiary has poured $2.5 billion into Lucid Motors, and doubled down again this week on its investment. The all-electric luxury automaker — which currently makes just one model — has struggled to hit its production targets.

Peter Rawlinson, the CEO of Lucid Motors, told Semafor’s Liz Hoffman that fundraising in Saudi Arabia is not like the stereotypes: “There’s this perception that there’s this pot of gold and it’s easy money if you can tap into it. Nothing could be further from the truth. They are not stupid. They are very savvy investors, and they are looking for multipliers that can help their transition.”

He also shared a personal moment from negotiations with PIF Governor Yasir Al-Rumayyan. “He’s quite an accomplished racing driver, and I decided that none of my test drivers were driving our cars fast enough to impress. So I took him out,” Rawlinson said. “I think I scared the devil out of him, flat out around the block. And they were in.”

Muscat Exchange lands its whale

The amount raised in the region’s biggest IPO so far this year — a wake up call for investors who have long ignored Muscat’s sleepy stock exchange. State-owned energy company OQ’s offer of 25% of its exploration and production unit attracted significant interest, valuing the business at $8 billion. Oman aims to elevate the Muscat Stock Exchange to “emerging markets” status under MSCI — it and Bahrain are the only Gulf exchanges that aren’t — which would juice liquidity on a bourse where just $27 million in shares traded on Thursday.

OQ Exploration & Production will become the most valuable listed company in Oman and one of only a few public oil producers in the Gulf, where state firms dominate. OQ accounts for about 14% of Oman’s total oil and gas production, according to Argus, and plans to list another unit this year. Oman — a member of OPEC+ — produces about 1 million barrels of crude a day.

“When we announced on January 1 of 2022 that we planned to launch a new global news organization, it sounded a bit crazy — even to us,” Semafor’s co-founders Justin Smith and Ben Smith wrote this morning, on our second anniversary. “We’re proud to say that, even amid global conflicts and harsh domestic politics, we’ve held our ground on the core issue of political polarization. We’ve earned the trust of sophisticated people in leadership roles around the world by focusing on what you need to know — not just what you want to hear. We’ve separated news from opinion in our Semaform, brought room for civil disagreement across our products, and pulled in views from all over the world.”

Thank you from the Semafor Gulf team for reading our work (for the past month). We hope to see you soon at our events, and we value your feedback, and, of course, your tips. It’s been an exciting launch and we’re just getting started!

Manara closes in on Zambian copper

Saudi Arabia’s Manara Minerals is close to securing access to Zambian copper and nickel, part of plans to make the kingdom a battery and EV production hub, Reuters reported. The joint venture between Saudi Arabian mining company Ma’aden and the Public Investment Fund is in advanced talks to acquire a minority stake in Canadian miner First Quantum Minerals, worth between $1.5 billion and $2 billion.

The deal builds on Manara’s growing portfolio of investments in critical resources like copper, nickel, and lithium — along with the vast untapped mineral wealth in the kingdom, valued at $2.5 trillion.

Gulf economies drive Middle East growth

The Gulf is pulling further away from a broader region mired in conflict, according to the World Bank. The lender’s Middle East and North Africa economic update is a somber read, quantifying the staggering human and economic toll of the region’s conflicts. (Without wars, income per capita in Syria, Yemen, and the Palestinian territories could have risen by 45%.)

Despite the regional gloom, Gulf growth is expected to accelerate in 2025, driven by the anticipated phase-out of OPEC+ oil cuts. Oil exporters have benefited as global energy and financial markets remain largely unaffected by the conflicts.

Sinwar’s death revives ‘day after’ for some

Israel’s killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has revived the Biden administration’s push for a ceasefire in Gaza. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is considering a post-war strategy based on ideas developed by Israel and the UAE that would be presented after the US presidential election, Axios reported prior to Sinwar’s death.

The plan has been in the works for months, but it is no sure thing: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu quickly dampened optimism for a ceasefire following Sinwar’s death, saying clemency will only come when hostages are returned. Muddying things further, Emirati officials are “not happy” with Netanyahu’s pick for the new ambassador to the UAE, Jewish Insider reported.

White House Senior Advisor to the President for Energy and Investments Amos Hochstein will join the Sustainability session at the Fall Edition of Semafor’s World Economy Summit on Oct. 25. The discussion will focus on the challenges posed by climate change and what they mean for the future of climate finance, decarbonization, and food security.

RSVP to this session and the World Economy Summit here.

Deals

• General Catalyst plans to make its first deal in the Gulf, leading an investment in Saudi Arabia-based fintech firm Lean Technologies. — The Information

Diplomacy

• The EU-GCC summit in Brussels happened. That alone is the “main achievement” of the meetings, according to Politico. With no breakthrough on a trade deal or visa waivers for Qataris and Kuwaitis, progress isn’t expected until the next summit, in Saudi Arabia in 2026.

Economy

• The enthusiasm tourists and homebuyers feel for Dubai isn’t fading. The emirate’s real GDP growth is expected to average around 3% over the next three years, according to S&P Global Ratings. Dubai’s government debt will be 34% of GDP by the end of 2024, down from 70% in 2021, and will continue to decline through 2027.

Energy

• Abu Dhabi to Riyadh is an emerging thoroughfare for green hydrogen deals. French private equity firm Ardian is planning to co-invest in projects with Masdar and exploring a tie up for joint deals in the sector with Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund. — The National

Solana’s three-week gathering of (mostly) crypto bros kicked off in a six-villa compound in Dubai, featuring a “cat room” to unwind after coding marathons. Around 450 developers and founders turned up to discuss how to build Web3 businesses on the blockchain platform, The National reported. Officials from Abu Dhabi Global Markets and Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism dropped by to update attendees on UAE crypto regulations and ambitions.

The UAE ranks third globally in the Henley Crypto Adoption Index 2024, behind Singapore and Hong Kong, and ahead of the US. The London consultancy bases its index on factors including government support, startup scene, and wealth. Separately this week, the UAE’s central bank approved the issuance of the country’s first stable digital currency — AE Coin. The stablecoin will be backed by the dollar-pegged dirham.

• The US’ most important climate elections this fall are local.
• South Korea’s next election sets up a classic revenge story.
• Nigeria’s lithium ambition is getting an unexpected boost.