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In this edition: The GOP’s important (but fake) refugee fight, crunch time for Biden challengers, an͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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October 20, 2023
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Americana

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David Weigel

A fake fight over Gaza refugees shows how the GOP has changed since 2016

Amir Levy/Getty Images

THE NEWS

South Carolina Republicans were worried. In early 2015, the Obama administration was looking to place thousands of people fleeing war-torn Syria; a refugee resettlement group had just opened an office in Spartanburg County. Gov. Nikki Haley, newly re-elected by 14 points, wrote county GOP officials a letter, to allay their fears.

“South Carolina, along with 48 other states, has proudly welcomed refugees from around the world,” Haley wrote. She would ask the State Department for “greater transparency” in how it screened refugees; if they passed vetting, Americans couldn’t “allow fear to erode America’s place in the world as accepting of immigrants who chose to come legally and contribute as citizens.”

Seven months later, Haley reversed course, urging the government not to “resettle any Syrian refugees” in her state, explaining that the vetting wouldn’t catch potential terrorists. And this week, after Ron DeSantis falsely claimed that Haley saw Gazans as potential refugees, she told Fox News that she didn’t.

“I’ve always said we shouldn’t take any Gazan refugees in the U.S.,” Haley said. “I said it when I was at the U.N. — that we shouldn’t take Syrian refugees [in] the U.S.”

The brief, bitter exchange over a non-existent refugee issue was a sideshow in the Israel-Gaza conflict; Israel’s Arab neighbors have refused to take in anyone fleeing the region. But it demonstrated just how much the Republicans who want to beat Donald Trump have adopted his politics — and how DeSantis, now trailing Haley in some early primary states, sees any deviation from it as a weakness to exploit.

“It shows an instinct on her behalf [to] try to cater to elite opinion,” DeSantis told Megyn Kelly this week. “She’s still suffering under the illusions, which should have been wiped away after dealing with Iraq and Afghanistan, that somehow people in that part of the world just yearn to live in American-style democracy and freedom.”

Haley’s critics on the right were glad to see her drawn out on the issue. Lee Bright, a former state senator from Spartanburg County, recalled how Haley had opposed the local conservatives who rallied against bringing Syrian refugees, even throttling a bill that would have made aid groups liable if refugees ended up committing crimes in America.

“She was for it initially, and then she flipped,” said Bright, who also opposed Haley when she took the Confederate flag down from its place near the state capitol. “If Nicky Haley and Nancy Mace aren’t connected through political DNA, I would be amazed. They are both on every side of every issue.”

Evangelicals who supported refugee resettlement saw 2015 as a political turning point. Dr. Russell Moore, then a leader of the Southern Baptist Convention, said that Haley had been “a voice of reason,” and not “cruel and vindictive,” at a moment when some right-wing activists were advancing refugee conspiracy theories.

“I’ve heard it from presidential candidates, but almost nothing from regular people,” Moore said. “There was a lot of grassroots angst about Syrian refugees, for a long time, and governors responded to that.” But the response from candidates was “not surprising, given the atmosphere right now.”

DAVID’S VIEW

The remarkable fact about this fight is that Haley never suggested that America take refugees from Gaza. Not once. The Florida governor based his attack on comments she’d made to CNN, after she was asked about his assessment that “all” of Gaza’s residents “are anti-Semitic.” She disagreed: “Half” of Gazans, she said, didn’t support Hamas, and “America’s always been sympathetic to the fact that you can separate civilians from terrorists.”

DeSantis had said that in the context of promising not to let refugees into America — a point that CNN’s Jake Tapper didn’t ask Haley about. DeSantis’s campaign pushed the issue with clips of Haley, in her 2017 confirmation hearing, saying that the state “always welcomed the refugee program,” cutting it before she explained why she rejected Syrian refugees.

But there was a real, year-long argument among Republicans about whether the country could vet and accept refugees from Syria. Trump himself even floated the idea of accepting some refugees “on a humanitarian basis.” The fight wasn’t settled until a terrorist attack in Paris in November 2015, and the revelation that three attackers had arrived in Europe from Syria.

Days later, Haley said that her state would take no refugees; weeks later, at a rally near Charleston, Trump first proposed a “total and complete shutdown of Muslims” entering America. Haley criticized that at the time, saying that “it defies everything that this country was based on.” Now, DeSantis was getting to Trump’s right on the issue, Haley was bringing her position in line, and the former president was reminding voters of who said it first.

“We aren’t bringing in anyone from Gaza, Syria, Somalia, Yemen or Libya or anywhere else that threatens our security,” Trump said in the western Des Moines suburbs on Wednesday. “I banned refugees from Syria, I banned refugees from Somalia — very dangerous places — and from all of the most dangerous places all over the world, I banned them. In my second term, we’re going to expand each and every one of those bans.”

THE VIEW FROM THE REST OF THE GOP FIELD

DeSantis’s persistence got other Republicans on record on the refugee question, none of them departing from post-Trump orthodoxy. In an interview with the Associated Press at Georgetown University, Tim Scott quibbled with the idea that every Gazan was anti-semitic, but added that they shouldn’t be coming to America.

“We’re not bringing anyone — no refugees in from Gaza, period,” Scott told reporter Meg Kinnard. “I think that’s the right decision. Not because I think they’re all anti-semitic, but I can’t tell the difference. And I do know that the majority of the Palestinians support Hamas based on all the latest polling that I’ve seen, since 2021.”

In an Iowa town hall, hosted by Newsmax, Mike Pence said that “nations in the region, with reasonable concerns about terrorism in their own country,” should take refugees, and America could play a role – while not “open[ing] the spigot to refugees coming to the United States of America.”

“I don’t want to upend our refugee program,” Pence added. “There are many church organizations across the country that work with refugees on a regular basis. But in this moment of war, we ought to be calling on Egypt, we ought to be calling on Jordan, to open the way.”

THE VIEW FROM IMMIGRATION ADVOCATES

Alex Nowrasteh, a vice president at the libertarian Cato Institute, said “any proposal, real or make believe, to admit refugees, is toxic to the Republican caucus” — though it was far more contested before Trump won the 2016 primary. His own research has found that, since 1975, just four Americans had been killed in terror attacks by refugees. “The annual chance of being killed in a normal homicide is about 240,000-times greater.”

NOTABLE

  • In RealClearPolitics, Philip Wegmann credits DeSantis with forging a “new orthodoxy on how the Biden administration should respond to Palestinian refugees.”
  • In the Daily Signal, Heritage Foundation border security scholar Lora Ries argues that “pro-Hamas demonstrations in the U.S. in the past week have shown us that the Palestinian population has no interest in assimilating into American culture and governance.” Former Michigan Rep. Justin Amash, a Palestinian-American known for his right-libertarian politics, urged the think tank to delete a “xenophobic” post featuring Ries’s take.
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State of Play

North Carolina. The GOP majority in Raleigh drew new congressional maps, in the next stage of its plan to replace court-drawn maps that created competitive seats with new districts that would overwhelmingly elect Republicans. (The first stage was winning a majority in the state supreme court, which happened in November.) Charlotte-area Democratic Rep. Jeff Jackson quickly posted a video, warning he was “toast” under new lines that would give the GOP speaker of the House a safe seat. Having abandoned a 2022 run for Senate, Jackson’s seen as a potential candidate to replace Attorney Gen. Josh Stein.

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Ads
ADMO Creative Agency

Cameron for Governor, “Trump Country.” Donald Trump endorsed Kentucky Attorney Gen. Daniel Cameron for governor 16 months ago, helping him romp home in the May primary, and appearing frequently in his ads. He’s back in this spot, as both Cameron and the Republican Governors Association close out the race by attacking Gov. Andy Beshear as a Biden puppet: “I’m the only candidate endorsed by President Trump and the only candidate who stood up to Joe Biden.”

Tell It Like It Is PAC, “Fool.” Chris Christie has yet to cross the 70,000-donor threshold to make the next GOP debate in Florida. His super PAC keeps amplifying his earned-media attacks on Donald Trump — this time, unloading on the former president for saying that Hezbollah was “smart,” and bloodlessly assessing Israel’s response in the first days of the Gaza war. “Only a fool would give comments that could give aid and comfort to the enemy,” says Christie.

Rick Scott for Florida, “Losing Our Country.” Rick Scott became a multi-millionaire in the hospital industry, and has poured money into his campaigns. When out of cycle, he’s funded straight-talk TV spots in swing states where he isn’t running — Scott sitting in a studio, bemoaning the latest crazy Democratic idea or failure. He lists more than a dozen of them in this spot (“We don’t know what a woman is and think men can have babies”), his first re-election ad, part of a $3 million statewide buy.

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Polls

Led by Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, Republicans have packaged their proposed 15-week limit on abortion as a popular compromise, running ads that contrast it with the Democrats who want no limits. This is the weakest level of support we’ve seen for the 15-week limit in any poll: 33% of Republicans oppose it, and just 42% of them “strongly” support it. Youngkin’s own approval rating in this sample is 55%; a significant number of voters think he’s done a good job as governor but depart from his abortion stance, which never really became an issue when he won in 2021.

Republicans and anti-abortion campaigners have worked much more closely together in this referendum than they had over the summer, when a measure to limit constitutional amendments failed. But the pro-abortion rights side is still winning the argument, framing the vote as the only way to beat the GOP’s six-week abortion limit. That pulls in 40% of Republicans, 31% of conservatives and 37% of self-described evangelicals — voters who have overwhelmingly positive views of Donald Trump and negative views of President Biden.

Republicans have been locked out of power in Trenton since Chris Christie left office, but they gained legislative seats in 2021 — and see a chance at flipping one house of the legislature this year. Gov. Phil Murphy has sued school districts that want to inform parents if students adopt a new gender identity in the classroom, and Republicans have taken the schools’ side. It’s their strongest issue, by far, and the generic ballot closes up when FDU’s pollsters lead with a schools question. Even Democrats don’t agree that parents shouldn’t influence the curricula at their kids’ schools — 39% agree, compared to 49% who say they should have “some influence.” (The New Jersey Education Association has its own polling that shows Democrats with an advantage here.)

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2024

White House. Progressive pundit Cenk Uygur will take legal action after he was removed from Nevada’s primary ballot over the alteration he made on its form — crossing out the words “natural born” before citizen. Uygur, who immigrated to America from Turkey, said that the setback fit into his plan to challenge the “natural born citizen” clause of the Constitution, which has been interpreted to prevent people born outside the U.S. from running for president.

“This is exactly what we were expecting,” he told Semafor. “This helps us get to the answer we need. We’re going to win this case.”

The deadline for making the Nevada ballot has passed, but Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips is moving closer to a Biden primary challenge, focused on New Hampshire; he told MinnPost that he called state party chairman Ray Buckley to talk it over. Phillips, 54, quit his role in House leadership earlier this month, and has suggested that Biden’s age and weak poll numbers would risk defeat to Donald Trump, urging Democrats to hold a competitive primary. The filing deadline in the first primary state: Oct. 27.

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Q&A

In February, when Pervez Agwan launched his campaign for Congress, he talked about economic inequality, a “green new Houston,” and cutting out corporate donors. Moderate Rep. Lizzie Fletcher had won the Texas 7th Congressional District when it was a swing seat; Republicans had re-drawn it as a safely Democratic seat, ready for more progressive representation. And by the end of September, he’d raised nearly $550,000 for his campaign.

Since Oct. 7, Agwan has emphasized another difference with Fletcher: He wants a ceasefire in Gaza, and she supports Israel to the hilt, even calling on the Biden administration to put more pressure on Iran. Agwan had already attacked Fletcher over her support from AIPAC — “a group that openly keeps an apartheid system and an open-air prison where people’s rights are violated,” he’d told The Intercept. He talked more about that with Americana. The primary is on March 5.

Americana: What are the chief disagreements between you and Rep. Fletcher? What votes has she taken this year that you would have handled differently?

Pervez Agwan: We have to contextualize this, because we’re dealing with a powder keg situation right now. I’m proud to be the only candidate in this race that’s actually calling for an immediate ceasefire, ending the violence in Gaza, and she’s really dropped the ball. She’s invited this chaos playing on our TV screens today.

Quite frankly, the top issue right now is what’s going on in Palestine, in Israel. Not only has she refused to call for a ceasefire, but she’s signed on to what I consider to be egregious human rights violations in the Middle East, right. She’s taking all this money from special interests, and that’s dictating her foreign policy. If I get to Congress I’d lead the charge on that.

Americana: On her role in in the current situation — are you referring to her supporting the MaCaul/Meeks resolution about standing with Israel?

Pervez Agwan: Yes. I’m one of a few people around the country calling for an immediate ceasefire. People who aren’t calling for that are basically offering a blank check to the Netanyahu regime. That’s a threat to our national security interests. You can’t prop up human rights violators, and put millions of people in an open air prison, and then say: Hey, Israel has the right to defend itself. No, that’s not how this works.

Americana: How is it a threat to our national security interests?

Pervez Agwan: When we prop up and arm — I’m not going to mince my words — an apartheid state, we destroy our credibility, and we actually breed animosity between the United States and the people of the Middle East. It is really time for us to think critically about our national security priorities, instead of selling them off to lobbyists for foreign governments and special interest groups like my opponent does.

She’s endorsed by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, and the tragedy is that AIPAC has really purchased a lot of our congressional campaigns. I truly believe that our campaign here in Houston is one of the best opportunities for progressives in this country to really confront this problem, by stopping Republicans and AIPAC from hijacking not just the Democratic Party, but all of electoral politics.

Americana: Do you support the resolution that Rep. Rashida Tlaib and some other progressives introduced, calling for a ceasefire?

Pervez Agwan: I immediately supported that resolution, I’m a proponent of it, and I think we need to go a step further. When I am in Congress, I would like to lead the charge to implement sanctions on the leadership of the Netanyahu regime and the Israeli government in retaliation for its decision to commit not just the heinous crime of apartheid, but putting out an evacuation order, giving people 24 hours to evacuate, and then bombing the evacuation routes out. These are war crimes being committed before our very own eyes. We’re watching innocent civilians die.

Americana: A few months ago, you told Mondoweiss that the state of the Israel issue, from your perspective, is “definitely getting better.” Do you still think that’s true?

Pervez Agwan: One problem right now is that a lot of people aren’t happy with the Democrats. A lot of young people don’t even identify as Democrats — they don’t identify as Republicans either. A lot of young people feel like Republicans stab us in the front but Democrats stab us in the back.

There were thousands of people at the Houston Palestine protest. There were thousands in Dallas. A lot of narratives and agendas being pushed from DC are not indicative of what’s on the ground, in the district with the largest Asian population of any in Texas. People want our politicians to be honest, and nobody wants a million people to die, no matter what their race, religion or ethnicity. We cannot allow the Netanyahu regime to step into Gaza and wipe out millions of people. It’s a genocide. When you put out statements like Fletcher has, saying that Israel has every right to defend itself? Well, I don’t think Israel is defending itself when it’s trying to wipe a million people out of the Gaza Strip.

Americana: The president has given what the White House called “unwavering support” to Israel. You obviously disagree with that; do you think it’s making the situation worse?

Pervez Agwan: I think President Biden has a lot of blood on his hands. He has failed in this moment, and his leadership has shown to be lacking, and his judgment, poor. I think President Biden is responsible, if he does not call for an immediate ceasefire, for the deaths of thousands of innocent civilians. I don’t agree that we should provide unwavering support to an Israeli government that egregiously violates human rights. He misinterprets the entire situation, and I think it is intentional. In this moment, President Biden has failed the test of moral conscience.

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  • 18 days until elections in Kentucky, New Jersey, Mississippi, Ohio, and Virginia
  • 19 days until the third Republican presidential primary debate
  • 87 days until the Iowa caucuses
  • 127 days until the South Carolina Republican primary
  • 383 days until the 2024 presidential election
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