Principals

1. An all too-early look at ’26
2. Republicans’ Montana confidence
3. Brainard on economy, tariffs
4. Candidates’ radical associations
5. Reality check on abortion
6. Gray Lady defends Trump coverage
7. Kennedy’s pro-Trump ad

PDB: John Paulson speaks to Semafor

Harris in Texas; Trump in Michigan … Semafor’s Fall World Economy Summit continues … Final NYT/Siena poll: Harris and Trump deadlocked

How the midterms could boomerang on the next president

It’s time for both parties’ least favorite subject: An early look at the 2026 midterms. And unless Republicans somehow come up with a Donald Trump-fueled red wave in battleground Senate races, the next Senate majority could be a two-year rental, Semafor’s Burgess Everett reports. Most scenarios suggested by current polls give the next winner a narrow majority, though Republicans have an edge and more paths to a bigger majority. Some of them are already gearing up for what might come in two years — depending on who is in the White House. “If Trump wins, it’s a nightmare map,” one senior Republican aide said. “If Kamala wins, it becomes less bad.” Sen. Thom Tillis said if Kamala Harris is in the White House, his path is “straightforward.” If it’s Trump, the GOP needs to move quickly on its agenda: “Then I think we’ll have, at worst, a neutral environment to run in.”

Republicans shift money out of Montana’s Senate race

Republicans are feeling good enough about their prospects in Montana’s Senate race to start cutting some ads. American Crossroads is striking about $2.8 million reserved to take down Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, a sign of confidence that he will lose. Still, the party’s Senate Leadership Fund super PAC is slated to run ads there over the final stretch. Both Republican groups are investing an additional $1 million each in Pennsylvania, where Dave McCormick is trying to beat battle-tested Sen. Bob Casey in one of the country’s most expensive races. SLF is also making a foray into Nevada, and those two groups also upped their Pennsylvania ad buys last week. Reminder: if Tester loses, Democrats will need to pick up a seat elsewhere in Florida or Texas to have a shot at hanging onto the Senate.

— Burgess Everett

Brainard: Officials are gushing about US economy

The US economy has been the talk of the town among officials in DC for the World Bank and International Monetary Fund meetings, White House economic adviser Lael Brainard said. “All they’re talking about is the strength of the US economy,” Brainard said at Semafor’s Fall World Economy Summit on Thursday. She also criticized Donald Trump’s across-the-board tariff proposal, saying it would “take us back” and “exact a lot of pain on American consumers.” Trump holds an edge over Kamala Harris on the economy as polls show a tight presidential race. By a 42% to 24% margin, voters say they will be financially better off if Trump wins, according to a CNBC poll, while the Financial Times found 44% of registered voters trust Trump more on the economy while 43% trust Harris more.

Americans worry about candidates being too radical

Four-in-10 Americans report being “very concerned” that Donald Trump is too closely aligned with people who hold radical political views, according to new figures from Gallup. Thirty-four percent are very concerned about Kamala Harris being too aligned with people with radical views, according to the survey, compared with 31% who said the same of Joe Biden during the 2020 election. It suggests that efforts by both candidates to portray their opponent as radical are cutting through, though concerns about Trump — whose association with far-right figures has worried his own allies — are more pronounced. Thirty-eight percent of independents reported being very concerned about Trump aligning with radicals, while 30% said the same of Harris.

What to expect on abortion next year

In the two weeks before the US election on November 5, our Reality Check series explains the clear Washington policy implications — which are often a long way from campaign rhetoric.

The likeliest path to an abortion-rights vote next year, and perhaps the only one, is complete Democratic control of Washington that would pave the way for writing Roe v. Wade into law. Even that would be a challenging partisan exercise, requiring a change in Senate rules to weaken the filibuster. But if Democrats can manage to win big, that move has the blessing of Vice President Kamala Harris, so it’s quite possible. If Republicans take power, they’re adamant that they would not seek a national abortion ban after several relatively recent attempts to install 15- or 20-week bans. Similarly, they say they won’t touch the Senate rules. Still, the anti-abortion movement wants more; social conservatives would almost certainly exert pressure on Republicans to try abortion action. A Trump administration could also seek to use executive action to curtail abortion access.

— Burgess Everett

New York Times responds to Trump coverage criticisms

The New York Times defended itself against accusations by some Democrats that it hasn’t done enough to characterize Donald Trump more directly as a threat to American democracy, Semafor’s Max Tani reports. Liberal media watchdog Media Matters For America accused the Gray Lady and other outlets of giving the evidence in the recently unsealed Jan. 6 indictment far less coverage than they did of Hillary Clinton’s email server during the 2016 election. In a response shared with Semafor, the Times said the indictment was “so heavily redacted that it didn’t reveal a great deal of new information beyond what was already reported.” It also argued it covered the fallout from Jan. 6 much more extensively than it did the Clinton email investigation.

Kennedy talks faith in pro-Trump ad

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is helping Donald Trump court the Catholic vote, Semafor’s David Weigel reports. Kennedy stars in a new $250,000 ad buy from the conservative group CatholicVote directed at Catholic voters in Pennsylvania that the organization plans to expand to other states. In the television spot, the third party candidate-turned-Trump surrogate talks about his own faith, then says he’s supporting Trump because he’ll “take bold action on the economy, on the border, and on restoring children’s health.” He criticizes the Democratic Party, but not Kamala Harris by name, and he leaves out any mentions of abortion and LGBTQ issues, which Republicans have focused on as they try to paint Harris as anti-Christian. It’s an unusual spot for Kennedy, who has not been focused on faith issues.

Why are so many Democrats eager to appear on Fox? With recent appearances from Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, JD Vance and Tim Walz, it looks like Fox is dominating this election. Ben and Nayeema investigate the channel’s durability despite massive lawsuits, MeToo scandals, and star exits from Tucker Carlson, Bill O’Reilly and Megyn Kelly. To go inside the machine, they talk to former “O’Reilly Factor” and “The Five” producer Nate Fredman (who spent nearly 20 years at the network) about what makes Fox tick — and stick.

Listen to the latest episode of Mixed Signals now.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: The House select committee on China is taking on a “central role” in discussions about restrictions on US investment in China, as House Republicans aim to reach a compromise they can pass during the lame duck.

Playbook: Donald Trump’s campaign is trying to soften his image in the final stretch, with trips to McDonald’s and podcast appearances. “It just shows that he’s someone who has fun,” Trump adviser Jason Miller said.

WaPo: Democrats are betting on split-ticket voters helping them hold onto the Senate.

White House

• President Biden will apologize to Native Americans for the government’s role in running Indian boarding schools from 1819 to 1969. — WaPo
• National security adviser Jake Sullivan commended Nigeria’s decision to drop charges against Binance executive Tigran Gambaryan.

Congress

• A fight among the House GOP is coming for leadership roles on committees if top Republicans choose to ascend the chamber’s party leadership ranks, retire, or defy term limits. — Politico

Outside the Beltway

• The Los Angeles County prosecutor is requesting Lyle and Erik Menendez be resentenced.
• The Biden administration greenlit a new lithium mine in Nevada, as part of a broader push to overcome China’s dominance of the critical mineral supply chain.

Economy

• New unemployment benefit applications fell again.
• Hedge-fund billionaire John Paulson told Semafor’s Joseph Zeballos-Roig that Donald Trump would “veer in a more targeted direction” with tariffs if he becomes president. Paulson, a rumored Trump Treasury Secretary candidate, also shrugged off concerns about retaliatory tariffs from other countries and left the door wide open to serving in government if Trump is reelected.

Business

• Brookfield Asset Management, one of the world’s biggest renewables investors, wants to expand an already huge deal to build clean power for Big Tech, a top executive told Semafor.

Courts

• Donald Trump claimed he would “fire” special counsel Jack Smith if reelected. He also suggested he would consider pardoning Hunter Biden.
• The Justice Department announced that the operators of the vessel that crashed into the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore agreed to pay more than $100 million.
• An Ohio judge blocked the state’s “heartbeat” abortion ban.

Polls

• Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia moved the Nebraska Senate race from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican.”

On the Trail

• Bruce Springsteen performed at a Kamala Harris rally in Georgia.
• Beyoncé will appear with Harris at a rally in Houston today.

Foreign Policy

• Russia provided Houthis with targeting data to help them attack Western ships in the Red Sea earlier this year. — WSJ
• Gaza ceasefire talks will resume over the weekend, as CIA Director Bill Burns and other officials meet in Doha.
• Donald Trump labeled the European Union a “mini China” on trade.
• Canada will cut immigration levels after years of welcoming newcomers. Opinion polls show waning enthusiasm, with Canadians concerned that the policy is piling pressure on housing and health care.

Technology

• Elon Musk has talked regularly with Russian President Vladimir Putin for two years, and has discussed business, geopolitics, and personal matters. — WSJ

Media

• Former Robert F. Kennedy Jr. running mate Nicole Shanahan offered $500,000 to a Washington Post reporter to be a “whistleblower” to identify people she felt were spreading fake information about her. — WaPo

Blindspot

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: As San Francisco district attorney, Kamala Harris lifted testimony from a Republican official for her own testimony before the House Judiciary Committee, the Washington Free Beacon reported.

What the Right isn’t reading: Military records contradict Montana GOP Senate candidate Tim Sheehy’s claim about being discharged from the military for medical reasons, NBC reported.

Principals Team

Editors: Benjy Sarlin, Elana Schor, Morgan Chalfant

Reporters: Burgess Everett, Kadia Goba, Joseph Zeballos-Roig, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

Mini Timmaraju is the president and CEO of Reproductive Freedom for All, a group advocating for abortion access.