Principals

1. Dems’ House plans
2. Trump’s MSG rally
3. WaPo rivals pounce
4. Evangelicals’ quiet voter drive
5. House Dems’ alternate path
6. China investment curbs talks
7. Reality check on China
8. Indian American attitudes

PDB: Vance says US would remain in NATO under Trump

Harris in Michigan; Trump in Georgia … Dollar to cement its dominance … EU’s Georgia crisis

Dems eye big changes if they take the House

Democrats are looking to make sweeping changes to House rules if they take back power next week, Semafor has learned. Expect a narrow version of the pandemic-era proxy voting that allowed lawmakers to tap colleagues to vote on their behalf — it’s a nod to conservative Rep. Anna Paulina Luna’s bipartisan bill that would allow lawmakers to vote by proxy in exceptional cases, including giving birth. Democrats also are looking at revised rules on decorum; if they don’t, calling Donald Trump a convicted felon would technically violate House guidelines. There’s also a chance Democrats would attempt to define the role of Speaker pro tem to avoid the murkiness that surrounded the role after the GOP fired Kevin McCarthy. And their most obvious pitch heading into the new Congress: a change to that pesky empowerment of a single member to try to fire a speaker.

— Kadia Goba

Crude rhetoric clouds Trump’s NY rally

Donald Trump’s rally at Madison Square Garden last night was pure, unvarnished Trump, which meant there was plenty for both parties to take away, Semafor’s Shelby Talcott writes from New York. Republicans saw the night as a win. Trump filled the iconic venue to capacity and delivered his closing message against Kamala Harris. One person on the campaign said it was a “bonus convention day.” But the event also spawned new controversies. Hours before Trump took the stage, the event received press attention for crude and offensive remarks made by some of the speakers. Comedian Tony Hinchecliffe, for instance, described Puerto Rico as a “floating island of garbage,” a remark that even earned a rebuke from GOP Sen. Rick Scott. “What the f— were they thinking?” one Democratic operative texted.

Rivals scramble to react to Washington Post endorsement crisis

The Washington Post’s rivals have moved quickly to capitalize on the paper’s decision not to run an endorsement of Kamala Harris, Semafor’s Max Tani reports. Guardian US editor Betsy Reed emailed readers touting her publication’s Harris endorsement last week and soliciting membership support. “A Guardian editorial strongly endorsed Kamala Harris for president earlier this week — and we are unafraid of any potential consequences,” Reed wrote. Readers pledged $1.1 million between her Friday email and Saturday evening, the Guardian’s largest single-day fundraising haul for its US operation. Oliver Darcy’s new Status media newsletter also solicited subscribers and saw a slight uptick. Meanwhile, the New York Times had to stress it issued an endorsement of Harris after readers confused the Gray Lady with the Post and the Los Angeles Times, which also did not publish an endorsement of the vice president.

Ralph Reed’s swing state turnout machine

Ralph Reed’s Faith & Freedom Coalition has been running a $62 million ground game operation around the country, with a focus on battleground states, at a time when Republicans have been frustrated by the Trump campaign’s reliance on other outside groups, Semafor’s Shelby Talcott reports. It’s been active in elections at the grassroots level to steer religious conservatives to the polls for years, but according to Reed, this cycle’s effort is “historic” and “the largest and most ambitious and far-reaching ground game project by an organization outside the Republican Party in history.” The group is just fine with being left out of the drama about the other get-out-the-vote organizations, like Turning Point USA and Elon Musk’s America PAC. “We’re not letting off the gas at all, but so far, we’re doing a better job of delivering our vote,” Reed said, referring to similar outside Democratic efforts.

Dems look to the heartland to retake the House

Democrats may have lost the House two years ago after surprising losses in New York and California, but they see a path to winning back the majority that doesn’t fully depend on those coastal states, Semafor’s Kadia Goba and David Weigel report. Democrats believe they can claw back four seats by defeating vulnerable Republicans in Oregon, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nebraska, where they hope to topple moderate Rep. Don Bacon. The party is eyeing this alternate path partly out of necessity, as several New York and California Republican incumbents look like they’ll hang on. “The nice thing about California and New York is that the talking point has always been very easy to explain: Like, this is the path we see here,” one Democratic consultant said. “In reality, the plan was always to go bigger, always to invest in other places.”

McHenry warns against ‘bad’ outbound investment policy

House Financial Services Committee Chair Patrick McHenry said House Republicans are closer to a compromise bill limiting US investment in China but warned against the consequences of passing a “bad law.” “We don’t need to be like China” to outcompete China, McHenry told reporters Friday. “We’re a rule of law country. We need to have a resilient regime, and it needs to be transparent to investors.” McHenry, who torpedoed a bipartisan effort to pass outbound investment restrictions last year, acknowledged lawmakers are closer to a compromise than they were a few months ago and didn’t rule out passing a bill during the lame-duck session (before he leaves Congress). McHenry has backed a sanctions-based approach over a broader sector-based proposal for limiting US investments in key Chinese industries, and Speaker Mike Johnson’s office has been leading talks to resolve the dispute.

— Kadia Goba and Morgan Chalfant

What’s next for US-China policy

In the two weeks before the US election on November 5, our Reality Check series explains the clear Washington policy implications — which are often a long way from campaign rhetoric.

Nothing unites the parties like getting tough on China, which will remain a target of harsh economic policies and rhetoric no matter who wins in November. But there will be some important differences in that relatively hostile environment based on who’s in charge come 2025: While Donald Trump may lean more on unilateral actions like tariffs, Kamala Harris is more likely to continue the Biden administration’s focus on alliance-driven measures and domestic investments. And both administrations are sure to see tension between pro-business advisers and those who skew more hawkish. The politics on outbound investment controls for China are scrambled, with certain Republicans and Democrats opposing the growing tide of lawmakers who favor these restrictions. If there isn’t action on a House proposal by year’s end, Congress may finally legislate next year to constrain investment in Chinese industries.

— Morgan Chalfant

Indian Americans lean away from Democrats

Indian Americans are shifting away from the Democratic Party, according to new research from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. While a plurality (47%) of Indian Americans identify as Democrats, that represents a decline from 56% who said so in 2020, a survey from Carnegie and YouGov says. The share of Indian Americans identifying as independent increased from 22% to 26% during the same time, while the share identifying as Republicans increased from 15% to 21%. A larger percentage of Indian Americans polled (31%) said they intend to vote for Donald Trump this election than said so in 2020 (22%), a shift analysts attribute to a rise in his support among Indian American men. Sixty percent said they will vote for Kamala Harris, whose mother was Indian and who would be the first Asian American president if she is elected.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., has been telling people she plans to run again to serve as GOP conference chair, but she’s also eyeing the United Nations ambassadorship if Donald Trump wins the White House.

Playbook: A poll conducted for Texas Senate Democratic candidate Colin Allred’s campaign shows him tied with GOP Sen. Ted Cruz.

WaPo: Trump’s gains with minorities are being driven by non-college educated voters.

Axios: Democrats hope reports on GDP, inflation and jobs out this week will help boost their economic message to voters ahead of Election Day.

White House

• President Biden will vote early in Delaware this morning, before heading back to Washington to thank National Guard members who supported hurricane recovery efforts in North Carolina. He is also hosting a Diwali celebration this evening that will feature a recorded video message from NASA astronaut Suni Williams, according to a White House official.

Congress

• House Speaker Mike Johnson expects Donald Trump to “fully support” him in a possible speakership race in the next three months. — Axios
• Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., said ending the federal income tax would be “insane economics.”

Outside the Beltway

• California Gov. Gavin Newsom said he plans to propose the expansion of the annual tax credit program for the state’s film and TV industry to $750 million from $330 million.

Economy

• Oil prices drop after Israel’s attack on Iran spares energy sites.

Business

• Boeing is planning to raise more than $15 billion in capital as soon as Monday as the troubled aerospace giant seeks to improve its liquidity. — Bloomberg

Immigration

• Elon Musk denied a Washington Post report that he worked illegally in the US at the start of his career.

Polls

• Only 49% of US voters believe that American democracy does a good job representing the people, while 76% believe democracy is currently under threat in the US, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll.
• New national surveys from CBS News and Emerson College show the presidential race essentially deadlocked, while an ABC News poll has Kamala Harris with a slight four-point edge over Donald Trump among likely voters.

On the Trail

• Kamala Harris is dodging President Biden’s requests to campaign with her. — Axios
• Harris isn’t really talking about student loan debt cancellation. — AP
• JD Vance made the rounds on the Sunday shows, defending Donald Trump’s “enemy from within” comments, dismissing the concerns about a second Trump term voiced by John Kelly, and insisting Trump would keep the US in NATO. “Donald Trump wants NATO to be strong. He wants us to remain in NATO, but he also wants NATO countries to actually carry their share of the defense burden,” he told NBC.
• The polls are fully staffed ahead of election day. — CNN
• Billionaires have donated roughly 18% of the money raised by both parties during the 2024 election cycle. — FT

National Security

• A US government cyber review board is investigating a Chinese hack of telecommunications systems designed to spy on Donald Trump and other prominent individuals. — WSJ
• Trump adviser Boris Epshteyn is circulating a proposal recommending that Trump bypass the traditional background check process to quickly dole out security clearances if he is reelected. — NYT

Foreign Policy

• The US approved an additional $2 billion in arm sales to Taiwan.
• Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic party lost its parliamentary majority, a major electoral loss for new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

Technology

• TSMC stopped shipments to a China-based chip designer after one of its chips was found in a Huawei device. — Reuters

Media

• Elon Musk’s X has brought in $15 million in political advertising revenue this year, well under its goal of $100 million. — FT

Blindspot

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: Former NFL quarterback Brett Favre will campaign with Donald Trump in Wisconsin this week.

What the Right isn’t reading: A House committee that oversees national elections hired two former Trump campaign officials who participated in the 2020 fake electors scheme, CNN reported.

Principals Team

Editors: Benjy Sarlin, Elana Schor, Morgan Chalfant

Reporters: Burgess Everett, Kadia Goba, Joseph Zeballos-Roig, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

Bill Cassidy is a Republican senator from Louisiana.