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AGOA giveth and taketh, Lungu returns, cheap African phones, Zim keeps US dollar͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
snowstorm Johannesburg
snowstorm Nairobi
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October 31, 2023
semafor

Africa

Africa
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Yinka Adegoke
Yinka Adegoke

Hi! Welcome to Semafor Africa where we see AGOA giveth and taketh away. Last week I talked to U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai, ahead of the Africa Growth Opportunity Act forum, which starts in a few days in Johannesburg. She was extremely optimistic that AGOA, which provides preferential trade arrangements for sub-Saharan African countries with the U.S., would be renewed by Congress when the current iteration expires in September 2025.

But much has changed since 2015, when the agreement was last renewed — both in the development of the continent and how the U.S. sees it, not least Washington’s view of how it should foster liberal democracy and human rights there. As we were putting the final touches to this newsletter, the White House put out a statement announcing that the Central African Republic, Gabon, Niger, and Uganda had all been suspended from the program. Some of these decisions are not surprising. Gabon and Niger suffered military coups, and CAR has been working with the Russian paramilitary group Wagner. The story will likely end up being about Uganda. The statement said Uganda has “engaged in gross violations of internationally recognized human rights” — what seems an obvious reference to passage of abv controversial anti-homosexuality law.

The U.S., of course, can give favorable trade benefits to whoever it wants. But AGOA has helped the continent; while its success isn’t widespread, it has had a meaningful impact in sectors like Kenya’s textile industry and South Africa’s automotive industry. Ethiopia is another example of success in supporting a fledgling manufacturing sector in industrial parks. But after the horrors of the civil war in Tigray, Ethiopia was suspended on Jan. 1, 2022. There has been some expectation, since the war ended last November, that we’d have news of the suspension being lifted before this week’s forum. We can only hope.

Need To Know
Reuters/Philimon Bulawayo

🇿🇼 Zimbabwean businesses and economists have welcomed a move by President Emmerson Mnangagwa to extend the U.S. dollar-dominated multi-currency system by five more years until December 2030. In so doing he repealed the 2019 regulation that had set 2025 as the date for return of the Zimbabwean dollar as the sole legal tender. The southern African nation abandoned its inflation-ravaged dollar in 2009, opting instead to use foreign currencies.

🇿🇲 Former Zambian President Edgar Lungu is making a comeback to active politics. On Saturday, he pledged to lead the main opposition Patriotic Front (PF) party in redeeming the country. The Zambian ex-leader lost elections to the incumbent president Hakainde Hichilema in 2021 — who came into power after promising to correct the course of the country’s economy that was in crisis after Lungu’s six-year reign. Lungu is now aiming to capitalize on growing dissatisfaction with his successor as inflation makes life difficult for everyday Zambians.

🇨🇩 In the latest battle over the Manono lithium mine in DR Congo, Australian mining company AVZ Minerals said it is considering filing an emergency arbitration against Cominiere, a local company. The move is an attempt to prohibit any transaction related to the Manono lithium mine in the country’s northeast. AVZ said it is seeking relief under International Criminal Court rules to maintain and preserve the rights of Dathcom Mining, through which it owns 75% of the stake in Manono — one of the largest lithium mines in the world containing 8.78 million tons of lithium dioxide reserves.

🇸🇩 Sudanese paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces claimed in a statement that they had captured Nyala, the country’s second-largest city and capital of South Darfur state, from the country’s army. The development in the six-month war came as the group and the country’s army were scheduled to restart negotiations in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The RSF also claimed that their second-in-command, Abdelrahim Dagalo, who has been sanctioned by the U.S., is leading the effort. So far, at least 670,000 South Darfur residents have been displaced from their homes since the war began, the second worst affected state after Khartoum.

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Stat

The amount the International Finance Corporation (IFC) has committed to help lenders support small businesses in DR Congo, Kenya and Tanzania in short and long-term financing. The institution said it increased investments in eastern Africa by 61% in the last financial year. The new financing is hoped to help small businesses with a focus on financing the development of energy efficiency projects, renewable energy, climate smart projects and to drive gender inclusion.

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Martin K.N Siele

Showmax gets help to take on Netflix in African streaming wars

Reuters/Molly Darlington

THE NEWS

Africa’s leading TV streaming player Showmax is being overhauled with investment by U.S. cable giant Comcast to take on Netflix, which has been growing rapidly on the continent with more subscribers and a string of exclusive content deals.

The revamp of Showmax is aimed at boosting its monetization, while also helping its parent MultiChoice maintain its control of lucrative sports broadcasting rights in Africa should the likes of Apple and Amazon come after them, according to an executive at Sky which is owned by Comcast.

“I don’t see Showmax just as a growth opportunity; it’s also an opportunity to build resilience,” said Andrea Zappia, Sky CEO for new markets and businesses. He joined the MultiChoice board in August, four months after Showmax sealed a partnership with NBCUniversal and Sky that will see NBCUniversal own a 30% stake in the revamped Showmax platform dubbed Showmax 2.0. Both NBCUniversal and Sky are owned by Comcast.

Zappia said that boosting the Showmax platform would strengthen MultiChoice’s hand by enabling a competitive live-streaming option as has been seen with NBC’s Peacock in the U.S. and Sky in the UK.

KNOW MORE

The partnership with NBCUniversal and Sky will deliver access to a huge library of shows and an advanced technology platform by migrating Showmax to Peacock NBCUniversal’s streaming service.

Showmax, which currently offers a range of live sports programming supported by MultiChoice-owned sports channel SuperSport, will also cut its sports offering almost entirely. Only the Premier League will be retained in what MultiChoice is calling Showmax 2.0. This month it began shuttering its premium streaming service, Showmax Pro, as it prepares to launch a new version of the platform.

MARTIN’S VIEW

As of 2021, Netflix had an estimated 2.61 million subscribers on the continent while Showmax, which is present in 50 African markets, had 861,000. Its offering of the Premier League has also been a big draw for subscribers. Maintaining its hold on the rights will be key to MultiChoice’s future success.

The addition of premium international content from global partners including NBCUniversal and Sky will make Showmax even more attractive to consumers. It will however find it extremely difficult to surpass Netflix, which remains the go-to platform for many Africans looking to sign up for a streaming service.

Michael Markovitz, head of the GIBS Media Leadership think tank in Pretoria, South Africa, told Variety that the partnership with NBCUniversal would enable Showmax to give Netflix a run for their money. “Relaunching Showmax with NBCUniversal’s technology platform Peacock and premium content from both NBCUniversal and Sky will reduce MultiChoice’s content and technology costs and give them a stronger hand when competing with global subscription streamers like Netflix, Amazon Prime, Disney+ and HBO,” he stated.

But streaming services globally are under pressure to achieve profitability in their home markets after years of unfettered investment and huge losses, as companies scrambled to gain a foothold in the streaming market. Zappia also acknowledged this, stating that Showmax would have time to strengthen the service as their competitors were focused on their biggest markets. “They’re rarely irrational,” he said. “They’re very well-run businesses.”

Read more for Room for Disagreement and a View from London

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Evidence

The top personal income tax rates in sub-Saharan Africa range from as low as 17% in Angola to as high as 60% in Côte d’Ivoire. However most countries in the region have rates in a median range between 30% to 35%. But many African countries have a number of (sometimes complicated) tax measures aimed at contributing to anything from health insurance to support for unemployed citizens; for example, South Africa’s suite of taxes includes unemployment insurance fund, skills development levy, workmen’s compensation, and value added tax. Yet many African countries struggle to collect enough for their needs. The average tax revenues as a percentage of gross domestic product in Africa is at around 16.5%, half the OECD average of 33.5%. Nigeria, whose 5% tax-to-GDP ratio is among the lowest on the continent, has set out to revise its array of taxes by cutting down required taxes from 60 to fewer than 10.

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Briefing

African countries are in a race to produce the cheapest smartphone

Kenyan Presidency

➔ Which African countries are producing affordable smartphones?

Kenya and Rwanda recently unveiled affordable smartphones. Kenya on Monday unveiled a $50 4G smartphone assembled in the country. Earlier in October, Airtel Rwanda had unveiled a $16.50 smartphone it described as Rwanda’s cheapest 4G smartphone. Orange and Google in 2020 launched a $30 smartphone to be sold in markets including Guinea Bissau, Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal and Madagascar. MTN launched a $20 smartphone in 2019 in partnership with South African phone manufacturer Mobicel, to be distributed across Africa.

➔ Are they actually making them?

Many telcos leading the affordable smartphones push are partnering with Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) to produce the smartphones. Kenya’s Safaricom and Jamii Telecom are partnering with Chinese firm Shenzhen TeleOne. Africa’s biggest phone compay MTN partnered with South African manufacturer Mobicel to produce the $20 smartphone dubbed Mobicel Rio.

➔ Why are affordable smartphones important for African countries?

Affordability of devices is a key barrier to internet access for many people in Africa, even in countries with high network penetration. In Rwanda for example, only 23.5% of people have access to the internet via a smartphone despite network coverage of 99%.

➔ What does this mean for Chinese maker Transsion, which sells the most smartphones in Africa?

Moses Kemibaro, a Nairobi-based technology analyst, told Semafor that the push for affordable smartphones was unlikely to significantly eat into the market share of leading manufacturers such as Transsion. “The play is more about digital inclusion and not about being the best smartphones per se,” he said. “The smartphones in question are entry-level by design and pricing meaning that in terms of features and functionalities they tend to offer the bare minimum.”

— Martin in Nairobi

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Tech Talk

In the third quarter of this year, Africa’s startup ecosystem recorded the lowest number of tech funding deals for any quarter since 2019, according to a tally by New York-based tech research firm CB Insights. The 92 deals between August and October led to $431 million in funding. It is not a poor return by itself since it matches the combined totals raised in the third quarters of 2020 and 2022. But taken together with the historically low amounts raised in the first half of this year, African tech’s Q3 performance on the fundraising front underscores an environment that an increasing number of startups are finding it difficult to thrive in, leading to leaner operations and closures.

South African startup WhereIsMyTransport has shut down its operations citing an inability to raise money from investors, Devin de Fries, its chief executive, said. The company founded in 2015 set out to provide data around formal and informal public transport routes, beginning with South Africa. It raised about $27 million from multiple investors like Google, Toyota Tsusho Corporation, the now-defunct Naspers Foundry investment firm, and the Johannesburg-based Nedbank. But rather than build on its expansion into cities like Lima, Bangkok and Mexico City, it has become the second African mobility startup to shut down in as many months, following Sendy’s closure in Kenya.

The Ethiopian prime minister’s cabinet voted to send a draft data protection bill to the lower house of parliament, bringing the country closer to its first major legislation on data privacy. The bill which is not yet public “stipulates the rights of individuals on their personal information in detail” and will bring various benefits to Ethiopia’s personal data protection systems, a statement from Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s office read. It comes at a period of increased participation of private companies in Ethiopia’s technology and telecoms sector which is sure to lead to more private information in the corporate databases.

— Alexander Onukwue

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Outro
U.S. State Department

The White House’s inaugural advisory council on African Diaspora Engagement was sworn into office in Washington D.C. on Monday. The 12-member council includes the Ugandan-born founder of Chipper Cash Ham Serunjogi, Ethiopian-born Mastercard executive Mimi Alemayehou, and Nigerian-American NBA analyst and basketball star Chinenye Joy Ogwumike. On Monday, Vice President Kamala Harris administered an oath of office to the team set to enhance dialogue between the U.S. officials and the African diaspora. It is hoped the new council will help influence and implement commitments to Africa made by President Biden during last December’s U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit.

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