Principals

1. House passes Israel bill
2. Blinken lands in Israel
3. Greene and Roy feud
4. Republicans look for Ukraine ‘endgame’
5. Saudi, UAE back Israel rapprochement
6. Wall Street’s quiet 2024

PDB: Analysis suggests Senate holds dramatically increased during Trump, Biden presidencies

Bidens to Maine … U.S. using drones to search for hostages over Gaza… WSJ: What to watch for in job numbers release at 8:30 a.m.

— edited by Benjy Sarlin, Jordan Weissmann and Morgan Chalfant

Tears as the House votes on Israel aid

House Republicans passed their controversial $14.3 billion Israel aid bill on Thursday night in a vote that unexpectedly brought tears to the chamber’s floor. In the lead-up to the vote, Democrats had accused Speaker Mike Johnson of playing political games by pairing military help for Tel Aviv with cuts to the IRS budget they widely saw as a poison pill. But 12 Democrats ultimately backed the bill despite a veto threat from President Biden, seemingly out of fear that failing to do so would open them up to attack ads questioning their support for Israel.

The roll call was notable for the raw emotion on display among some of the House’s Jewish members, who seemed genuinely furious at Johnson’s tactics on an issue they see as deeply intimate. Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-Fla. and Greg Landsman, D-Ohio both left the chamber’s floor crying after voting for the bill. “If you’re not going to take this seriously, if you’re going to play politics with something like this, what does that mean for the rest of this Congress?” Landsman said to Semafor. He then took a more personal dig at Johnson, who in a recent interview suggested people “pick up a Bible” to understand his worldview. “I have a masters in theological studies. I studied the Torah. I studied the Bible, front and back, every page,” he said. “He doesn’t follow that book.”

— Kadia Goba

Biden admin ups pressure for humanitarian ‘pauses’

Secretary of State Antony Blinken landed in Tel Aviv, where he’ll hold talks with Israeli officials and step up the Biden administration’s push for humanitarian pauses in hostilities in Gaza. Israeli military officials said they had encircled Gaza City, while Hamas, which carried out the Oct. 7 attack that began this latest phase of conflict, pledged to carry out similar operations “a second, a third, a fourth” time. The war threatened to expand further as Hezbollah exchanged rocket fire with Israel ahead of a speech by the Iran-backed Lebanese group’s leader — his first since the war began — in which he was expected to set out its plans.

It’s Blinken’s third visit to Israel since the Oct. 7 terror attack by Hamas, but the Biden administration’s rhetoric on Israel’s offensive has shifted in important ways since the last time Blinken touched down in the country. “Defending Israel is essential. So is aiding civilians in Gaza,” read the headline of an op-ed Blinken penned for the Washington Post earlier this week. Democrats supportive of Israel have also started to openly raise concerns about Israel’s military campaign in Gaza and the toll on Palestinians. Separately, some have raised worries about the electoral impact of Biden’s support for Israel. Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi isn’t one of them. At a breakfast event, she defended the administration’s response to the war and dismissed the idea Democratic voters upset with Biden over Israel will abandon the party — especially if the GOP nominee next year is Donald Trump. “Have we forgotten about the Muslim ban?” she asked.

— Morgan Chalfant and Prashant Rao

For House Republicans, decorum remains a challenge

If you thought the public beefing between House Republicans was going to ease up after their speaker battle, well, think again. Thursday featured Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga. lashing out at Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas and other assorted rivals, after he criticized her failed motion to censure Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Mich. “You voted to kick me out of the freedom caucus, but keep CNN wannabe Ken Buck and vaping groping Lauren Boebert,” she tweeted. When Roy told a reporter Greene should “go chase so-called Jewish space lasers,” she responded with an apparent knock on his facial hair: “Oh shut up Colonel Sanders, you’re not even from Texas.” Given that the GOP just promoted a new speaker known for being carefully polite, we wondered whether the conference leaders’ might try to finally tone down some of the acrimony. “I don’t think it’s what it ought to be. We can disagree with one another without being disagreeable to each other,” Rep. Tom Cole, chair of the House Rules Committee, told Semafor’s Kadia Goba. But would the GOP ever take more formal steps to improve decorum? “That depends on the individual. You ought to behave the way your mother told you to.”

The big question Republicans are asking about Ukraine

House Republicans are ratcheting up pressure on the Biden administration to spell out its “endgame” for the war in Ukraine, Morgan Chalfant and Kadia Goba write. New House Speaker Mike Johnson suggested on Fox News that the GOP might not back additional aid for Kyiv without details on the war’s objectives. And during a trip to the White House last week, he brought along a GOP white paper that calls for President Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to provide Congress “with an actual win strategy” and “price tag.” Rep. Mike Garcia, R-Calif., told Semafor Thursday afternoon that he and other lawmakers who worked on the paper had received a response from the White House, but hadn’t reviewed it yet.

Providing that roadmap may be much easier said than done in an unpredictable war, and there are legitimate reasons the administration might not want to say how it should conclude — chief among them the fact that it’s still Ukraine’s battle. “It’s not our job primarily as Americans to be defining what the end state looks like if it’s not our war,” Dalibor Rohac, a scholar at the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute, told Semafor. One Western official noted that putting down a point-by-point endgame could also “conflict” with the administration’s message that it’s willing to support Ukraine all the way to victory.

Saudi Arabia and UAE signal continued support for Israel ties

Israel’s military offensive in the Gaza Strip might be drawing increasing opposition in the Arab and Muslim world, but it’s not derailing Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates’ rapprochement with Israel, Semafor’s Jay Solomon reports. Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been central players in the Abraham Accords, a diplomatic track initiated by the Trump administration that promoted Israel’s normalization of ties with Arab and Muslim countries. Saudi Arabia’s Defense Minister, Khalid bin Salman, reaffirmed his country’s interest in pursuing the Abraham Accords despite calling for a ceasefire in Gaza during a visit to the White House this week, U.S. and Arab officials said. And Emirati officials have also said they remain committed to the Abraham Accords and their diplomatic ties with Israel, despite also calling for a ceasefire. “Without getting into specifics, we came away from those discussions confident that we have a path to get back towards normalization and that there is an interest on the Saudi side to pursue that,” White House national security spokesman John Kirby said. The moves from Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, assuming they hold, could offer the Biden administration key allies to try and forge a new political leadership in the Palestinian territories if Israel makes good on its campaign to dislodge Hamas.

Wall Street donors sit on their millions as Trump surges

Top Republican Wall Street donors aren’t excited about another Donald Trump term, but they aren’t sold on any of his opponents yet either, Semafor’s Liz Hoffman writes. The non-Trump campaigns all raised less in the third quarter than Jeb Bush did in 2015 when his campaign was already on the ropes. Many big name contributors are still waiting for someone in the field to distinguish themselves or for an investor-friendly savior like former Carlyle Group co-CEO Glenn Youngkin to hop in. But the extended Hamlet act could benefit Trump, who continues to expand his lead with little pushback. “Big donors are trying to figure out what’s going to happen, rather than make something happen,” Mike DuHaime, a Republican strategist who guided Chris Christie’s New Jersey races, told Semafor. “They need to stop playing pundit and start playing advocate. Debating over who could beat Trump just continues to delay and delay, and that only advantages Trump.”

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries had some nice things to say about Speaker Mike Johnson after their first meeting earlier this week. “I think Mike Johnson is smart,” Jeffries said. “His philosophy is different than my philosophy. But Mike Johnson cares about America. House Democrats care about America. Let’s try to find common ground.”

Playbook: New Hampshire is Nikki Haley’s opportunity to “solidify her status as the non-Trump Republican in this race.”

The Early 202: Rep. Ken Buck, R-Colo. explained why he’s leaving Congress. “I’ve always felt like this place avoids some issues, doesn’t respond to challenges. And that’s frustrating for me,” Buck said. “This place is a get-reelected place, not a solve-a-problem place.”

Axios: A campaign memo from President Biden’s team is warning of a “very close general election.”

White House

• President Biden and first lady Jill Biden are traveling to Maine today to meet with first responders and families of victims killed in the shootings in Lewiston last week.
• White House spokesman Andrew Bates criticized Fox News’ Jesse Watters over his comments about “the Muslim world” and demanded an apology from the network. — The Daily Beast
• “Top Biden officials are preparing Democratic lawmakers and immigration policy advocates for the likelihood the administration will have to swallow compromises on asylum law in order for the president’s national security funding request to pass.” — Politico

Congress

• Lawmakers on the House Intelligence Committee are eyeing a short-term extension of a powerful surveillance tool known as Section 702 that lets the government spy on foreign suspects without a warrant. — The Hill
• Sen. Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala. waved off the idea that his blockade on military promotions had indirectly led to Marine Corps Commandant Gen. Eric Smith’s recent heart attack by forcing him to essentially fill two roles. “C’mon, gimme a break,” Tuberville told reporters. “This guy is going to work 18, 20 hours a day no matter what. That’s what we do. I did that for years because you’ve got to get the job done.” The Senate sidestepped Tuberville’s hold to confirm three senior military nominees, including a new Marine Corps. No. 2.
• Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Dick Durbin, D-Ill. called for a ceasefire in the Israel-Gaza war in order to allow for the release of hostages taken by Hamas. (President Biden has stuck to the phrase “humanitarian pause.”) Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn. separately urged Israel to “immediately reconsider its approach,” saying it was “causing an unacceptable level of civilian harm and does not appear likely to achieve the goal of ending the threat from Hamas.”
• Sens. Mark Warner, D-Va. and Jerry Moran, R-Kan. introduced legislation that would require federal government agencies to follow artificial intelligence safety guidelines developed by the National Institute of Standards and Technology.

Outside the Beltway

• The FBI raided the home of a top fundraiser for New York City Mayor Eric Adams, as part of a broader public corruption probe into possible conspiracy between Adams’ mayoral campaign and Turkey. — NYT
• A group of two dozen U.S. law firms wrote to deans at prominent university law schools like Harvard and Yale urging them to take an “unequivocal stance” against antisemitic harassment and discrimination.

Foreign Policy

• U.S. intelligence shows that the Wagner Group may give Hezbollah an air defense system, raising concerns in Washington. — WSJ
• U.S. climate envoy John Kerry (who we spotted at Reagan National Airport yesterday afternoon) will meet with his Chinese counterpart, Xie Zhenhua, in California over the weekend, the latest instance of the U.S. and Chinese officials talking.
• The Israel-Hamas war is fueling questions about whether Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu‘s time is up.

Data

How have senators’ use of holds evolved over time? In light of the drama surrounding Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s hold on military nominees, the Partnership for Public Service’s Center for Presidential Transition analyzed past cloture votes and found that they dramatically increased between the Obama and Trump administrations and again between the Trump and Biden administrations. In the first two years of President Biden’s term, there were 144 cloture votes on executive nominees; during the first two years of the Clinton, Bush, and Obama administrations, there were 10 or less.

Courts

• Rudy Giuliani is trying to save his law license, which is under threat due to his role in former President Donald Trump’s efforts to contest the 2020 election results.
• A jury found FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried guilty of all fraud and conspiracy charges in his trial. The maximum sentence he faces: 110 years.

Big Read

Who’s driving President Biden’s focus on AI? At Politico Magazine, Nancy Scola profiles Bruce Reed, White House deputy chief of staff and a veteran policy hand going back to the Clinton administration. His career arc has tracked the party’s relationship with Big Tech over that time — warm and welcoming, then mildly concerned, and now increasingly terrified at its impact. One of those current fears: A world where deepfakes and voice cloning render everything from ordinary phone calls to pictures to video completely impossible to evaluate for accuracy. “All of us, just as members of the human race, need to worry about the erosion of trust in our daily lives,” he said.

Blindspot

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, according to data from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: Tucker Carlson visited WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange in London’s Belmarsh Prison on Thursday.

What the Right isn’t reading: Special counsel Jack Smith argued in a new filing that Donald Trump is trying to manipulate the courts handling his criminal cases in order to delay his trials past the 2024 election “at any cost.”

Principals Team

Editors: Benjy Sarlin, Jordan Weissmann, Morgan Chalfant

Editor-at-Large: Steve Clemons

Reporters: Kadia Goba, Joseph Zeballos-Roig, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

Mohamed Younis is editor-in-chief at Gallup. We asked him about new polling released this week concerning U.S. views on Russia’s war in Ukraine.

• Major Chinese social media platforms announced they will begin requiring influencers with more than 500,000 followers to display their real names, breaking one of the last pillars of online anonymity in China.
• Microsoft has added a major new capability to one of its smaller large language models, a big step that shows less expensive AI tech can have some of the same features as OpenAI’s massive GPT-4.
• Some of the Hamas militants who attacked Israel on Oct. 7 were fueled by a synthetic amphetamine. U.S. and Israeli officials believe it was used to suppress fear and anxiety during the rampage, and stimulate the willingness to kill civilians.