Gulf

1. Aramco’s massive dividend
2. Abu Dhabi energy push
3. Investors love Omani oil
4. …and hydrogen
5. Qataris vote to end voting

Saudis are hooked on America’s most Trumpian spectacle: WWE.

Welcome back to Semafor Gulf, where Nov. 6 is just another day.

Ok, maybe it started off that way. The buzz at Abu Dhabi’s annual energy convention ADIPEC — the world’s biggest — was very much focused on business. Deals were struck, targets were touted, and widgets were unveiled.

As news came through that Donald Trump will be the next US president, I asked people here at ADIPEC about oil prices. More than a dozen executives from regional and international energy companies expected average prices to be below $75 next year: Fine for Qatar, Oman, and the UAE, but will keep Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Bahrain in deficit spending. Brent crude is down today.

None listened to Trump’s full remarks. Thanking Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for his support and hinting at a cabinet post, Trump said: “Bobby, leave the oil to me. We have more liquid gold — oil and gas — than any country in the world. More than Saudi Arabia, more than Russia. Bobby, stay away from the liquid gold.”

All GCC countries offered Trump congratulations after results trickled in.

Their partner in OPEC+, Russia, had a quick response. In a statement sent to Semafor columnist Hadley Gamble, Kirill Dmitriev, the CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, a Moscow sovereign wealth fund, and the person who led economic diplomacy to Saudi Arabia, praised Trump and said his victory “opens up new opportunities for resetting relations between Russia and the United States.”

It’s obviously too early to know what a second Trump presidency will mean for the Gulf, especially as the conflicts between Israel and Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran continue. As Hadley noted weeks ago, many leaders here preferred Trump but the next US president’s oil and gas policy of “energy dominance” is a challenge to countries that are still reliant on fossil fuels for growth and government revenues, even as they seek to diversify from oil and gas.

The hope, beyond the financial pain that Trump may inflict, is that he will fulfill his promise to reduce tensions in the region, which will allow more attention to be paid to economic development.

Aramco dividend may face pressure

Saudi Aramco’s debt-fueled dividends are piling up, with a financial reckoning likely on the horizon. The world’s biggest oil exporter has been paying out more in dividends than its free cash flow for five straight quarters — essentially funneling $100 million dollars a day to shareholders such as the kingdom’s own treasury, even as oil prices and output dip, according to Bloomberg Opinion’s Javier Blas.

With incoming US President Donald Trump’s plan to boost US oil production, the prior decade’s “lower for longer” mantra in oil prices could return, potentially forcing Aramco to consider trimming its dividend. That would impact both Aramco’s valuation and Saudi government revenue. While Aramco’s strong balance sheet can support additional debt, a prolonged decline in oil prices will pressure the company’s finances, making concerns about the impact of a second Trump presidency on oil-exporting economies a reality sooner than anticipated.

ADNOC adds billions into tech, chemicals

Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) announced a flurry of deals across its operations: $920 million to expand digitalization in its oilfields, $2 billion to develop infrastructure at its chemicals port, and a long-term liquefied natural gas sale to Germany.

The digitalization contract was awarded to a Chinese firm to install sensors and other equipment on ADNOC’s onshore fields to support artificial intelligence-powered remote monitoring of 2,000 wells by 2027. And an ADNOC joint venture with ADQ awarded contracts to build a low-carbon chemicals supply chain, aiming for production capacity of 4.7 million tons per year by 2028.

A significant portion of both deals will feed back into the UAE economy under ADNOC’s In-Country Value program, which is similar to other efforts across Gulf countries in seeking to accelerate economic diversification.

Oman’s IPO momentum builds

Oman’s once-sleepy stock market is preparing for another jolt as the sultanate’s privatization push gains momentum. State energy company OQ SAOC plans to sell up to 49% of its methanol and liquefied petroleum gas unit in an IPO, part of a “healthy” pipeline of Gulf public listings through the end of the year, according to PwC.

The OQ business unit is expected to be valued between $1 billion and $1.5 billion. Last month the company raised $2 billion from taking its exploration and production business public. Leading the privatization charge — Oman has at least 30 entities in its IPO pipeline — is Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said, who took the throne in 2020. Along with fiscal reforms, the strategy has helped the country turn a large fiscal deficit into a surplus since 2022.

Oman may ship green hydrogen by 2030

Foreign investors are taking the lead in Oman’s green hydrogen push. General Atlantic’s Actis and partner Fortescue expect to break ground on their first green hydrogen project in Oman within 18 months, with initial shipments expected by 2030, Lucy Heintz, Actis’ head of energy infrastructure, told Semafor. The multi-billion-dollar project may deploy up to 4.5 gigawatts of wind and solar power, positioning green hydrogen to comprise about 10% of Actis’s portfolio, she said.

Oman’s state-owned Hydrom, launched in 2022, provides power grid connectivity, water, and port infrastructure, allowing companies to focus on production and ammonia conversion. Oman aims to become the world’s sixth-largest hydrogen exporter by 2030, with projections for hydrogen sales to surpass LNG by 2050, but the bill for that transformation will be significant: The IEA estimates Oman will require $33 billion for renewable power, electrolysis, and ammonia facilities.

Qatar’s short flirtation with democracy

Qatar also voted on Tuesday. On the ballot was one issue: Whether to end limited elections for the Shura Council, the country’s legislative body. Schools were shut, offices closed early, parking was free, and ID-secured in-person and online voting was available. Best of all: The ruler gave the country the rest of the week off to celebrate. (The referendum passed with 91% of the vote, on 84% turnout.)

The constitutional amendment allows the ruler Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani to fully appoint the council, ending a brief experiment where Qataris elected 30 of 45 members. Sheikh Tamim said competitive elections caused friction within “families and tribes.” A former Shura head said after casting his vote that it’s a duty to “listen and obey” the ruler and that Qataris — who enjoy one of the highest per-capita incomes in the world — were blessed.

Deals

• Abu Dhabi’s energy sector is continuing on its international expansion spree. Enersol, a joint venture between ADNOC Drilling and IHC-backed Alpha Dhabi, agreed to acquire a 95% equity stake in Pennsylvania-headquartered Deep Well Services for $223 million.

Commodities

• A biofuels plant operator said it will produce around 10% of global sustainable aviation fuel by the end of 2025 once it completes a $600 million expansion of its facility in Fujairah. Mercantile & Maritime Group — a commodities trader with operations in Cyprus, Myanmar, and Singapore which bought an oil storage terminal in Fujairah last year — plans to initially sell aviation fuel in the UAE.

Energy

• Abu Dhabi Future Energy Co., known as Masdar, signed a joint agreement with Malaysian energy companies Sarawak Energy and Gentari to explore building a floating solar power plant in the northern state of Sarawak — a more viable alternative to land reclamation in the congested country. Masdar last year invested in 10 gigawatts of clean energy projects across Malaysia.

Diplomacy

• The US and Saudi Arabia are discussing a security pact that may proceed without an Israel normalization plan. Talks in Washington last week revolved around “a set of security, technology and economic agreements the parties want to sign before Biden leaves office.” — Axios

Michael Ratney is the US Ambassador to Saudi Arabia.

Elon Musk’s internet service provider Starlink is halting new sign-ups in Africa, citing a demand surge in the continent’s biggest cities, Semafor’s Alexander Onukwue reported. Starlink’s Africa rollout has also been met with some resistance from local telecoms companies and concerned regulators, Alexander wrote.