Brian Snyder/Reuters On Wednesday, we broke down why Elon Musk was the big winner in the tech industry after the US election. Today, we’re taking a step back to look at how technology will play a key role in the second Trump presidency. During the previous two administrations, the biggest policy decisions around technology were about playing defense: The first Trump term focused on curbing the ability of China to rip off American innovation. Biden officials picked up where Trump left off, with new export restrictions on American technology and the CHIPS Act, aimed at onshoring and diversifying the semiconductor supply chain. The next four years will likely include a hefty bit of offense. How does the US dominate the artificial intelligence revolution, the space industry, biotech, materials science and other areas key to having an edge against China in the technology cold war? Deep tech categories are hitting inflection points, and how the US fares relative to China could shape Trump’s long-term legacy. Here are some interesting areas worth watching. Basic research: Like most Republican administrations, Trump comes to office with the promise of reducing government spending. What we don’t know is whether that policy will apply to federal funding for basic research. When it comes to AI, the most cutting-edge research requires access to the kind of compute power currently controlled exclusively by corporations — at least in the US. America could see increased spending in this area. The first Trump White House, in August 2020, worked with the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy to set up 12 AI and quantum computing research institutes, offering $1 billion in funding for work in those areas. One clue will be how Trump officials weigh in on the National AI Resource, a pilot program that offers compute resources for government and academic researchers and some startups. Bargaining Chips: The cutting-edge silicon that crunches AI math at blazing speeds makes products like ChatGPT possible, and global businesses can’t get enough of it. The US has so far been cautious about where it allows companies like Nvidia and Cerebrus to ship their most powerful products, worried that the technology could fall into the hands of China or countries with poor human rights records. Trump could see these chips as leverage in international negotiations. As one tech policy person said to me this week, “Chips are the new tariffs.” Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have been pushing the US to allow more chip imports. The question is what Trump, author of The Art of the Deal, will ask for in return. It’s not inconceivable that chips could have some role in efforts to end the war in Ukraine or Gaza, for instance, given the Gulf region’s interest in both conflicts. Read on for how tech policy could play out when it comes to AI moonshots and more. → |
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