Africa

1. Fewer viewers
2. Losing credit
3. Sunny disposition
4. Modi’s visit
5. Belt and Road 2.0
6. Somaliland votes

Also, the overlooked benefits of living wall gardening.

Welcome to Semafor Africa, where we’ve noticed incumbency is a disadvantage in this bumper election year. Voters in Botswana and Mauritius have, in recent weeks, delivered landslide victories for opposition parties. The change of leadership could mean policy changes in countries that are, respectively, one of the world’s top diamond producers and the continent’s leading investment destination. As Semafor’s comprehensive global election hub shows, it’s part of a worldwide trend.

Here in Ghana, where I’m gauging the temperature ahead of the country’s Dec. 7 election, it’s also looking tough for the incumbent New Patriotic Party (NPP). A recent poll predicts main opposition candidate John Dramani Mahama will win. Much like voters elsewhere in Africa, many are frustrated by persistent inflation due to aftershocks of the global pandemic and supply chain disruption exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. The Ghanaian cedi has lost around 25% of its value against the dollar since the start of the year — a point raised by most people I’ve spoken to.

Incumbency is particularly problematic if the current administration gets people talking for the wrong reasons. President Nana Akufo-Addo’s unveiling of a statue of himself last week has been widely criticized for being self-aggrandizing. This won’t help his vice president and NPP candidate, Mahamudu Bawumia, in what’s shaping up to be a close race.

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MultiChoice loses subs as inflation hurts

Africa’s largest pay TV company MultiChoice lost 1.7 million subscribers in the six months to September, largely due to inflationary pressures and power shortages in key markets.

South Africa-based MultiChoice, which ended the period with 14.9 million subscribers, saw its revenue fall by 11% to $1.3 billion while its net losses widened to $100 million, from $51 million a year ago.

The group — whose brands include DStv, GOtv, and Showmax — said Zambia and Nigeria shed the most subscribers, losing 298,000 and 243,000 respectively. The decline in Zambia was attributed to frequent power outages. In Nigeria, rising food, fuel and electricity prices prompted subscribers to drop the service.

It also lost 184,000 subscribers in its home market of South Africa but kept revenue flat. The improved performance was driven by a months-long period without load-shedding and positive market sentiment around the coalition government.

— Martin K.N. Siele

Africa’s private credit challenge

Sub-Saharan Africa saw the steepest decline in lending to the private sector of any region in the 15 years up to 2022, the European Investment Bank said. It underscores a key development challenge for the continent. Credit to the private sector as a percentage of GDP rose massively in other developing regions including East Asia and Latin America, but sub-Saharan Africa recorded a 20 percentage point drop. It should focus attention on the crowding out effect happening in the region, where “excessive bank lending to the public sector” restricts credit to the private sector, the EIB’s latest Finance in Africa report said. The impact curtails the level of growth that can be spurred by the private sector. It also highlights the fact that the stock of private capital in Africa — especially those flowing from foreign investors — is failing to keep pace with the rest of the world, the report said.

Boosting Senegal’s green energy

Or $88.8 million. The value of an investment by Emerging Africa & Asia Infrastructure Fund, and Dutch financier FMO in two solar plants in southern Senegal. The plants will feature battery storage systems operated by Axian Energy and are scheduled to be completed in 2026. The project targets an annual capacity of 60 megawatts, providing green electricity to 235,000 people, the parties said. It is expected to contribute to Senegal’s target of achieving 40% renewable energy capacity by 2030.

India’s Modi set to visit Nigeria

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Nigeria this week, the first by an Indian leader since 2007. The two-day trip comes as the country seeks to deepen ties with Africa since welcoming the African Union last year as a permanent G20 member.

But some critics say India’s attempt to champion its relationship with Africa has not lived up to expectations. “Far from displaying signs of a rapid take-off, ties between continent and country are bumpy, with considerable barriers preventing opportunities from being seized,” according to analysis in The Diplomat.

Modi’s Nigeria visit is at the invitation of President Bola Tinubu, who has been seeking more foreign investment since assuming office last year. One of Tinubu’s first official presidential trips was to India during last year’s G20 Summit. Bilateral trade between India and Nigeria grew by nearly 70% between 2021 and 2022 to almost $15 billion.

— Alexander Onukwue

China’s energy lending reboot

China’s energy lending is ramping up again — but with significant shifts that change how it invests in Africa. That’s the takeaway from new research published by Boston University’s Global Development Policy Center.

China’s development finance institutions made three loans in 2023, a far cry from the heyday of the country’s foreign energy financing. The loans were all for green projects and were markedly smaller than previously, averaging $167 million per loan rather than the $547 million average between 2000 and 2023. But perhaps most importantly, Chinese lenders are more risk averse and appear to have a greater focus on achieving financial returns than in years prior. That shift may drive more loans to Latin America, where political and financial risk is generally seen to be lower, Jiaqi Lu, one of the report’s authors, told Semafor.

— Prashant Rao

Somaliland goes to the polls

Voters in Somaliland went to the polls on Wednesday amid the growing possibility of the region being recognized as an independent state.

While it is considered part of Somalia by the United Nations, Somaliland is run independently and has sought international recognition since 1991. President Muse Bihi Abdi and main opposition candidate Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, a former parliament speaker, are the leading contenders.

The election comes amid changing regional dynamics. Somalia is vehemently opposed to a deal signed this year that would give landlocked Ethiopia access to Somaliland’s Red Sea port of Berbera in exchange for Ethiopia’s recognition of Somaliland.

Project 2025, a document by US conservative group Heritage Foundation that has been described by some as a blueprint for Donald Trump’s incoming administration, proposes the US recognition of Somaliland as a hedge against Washington’s weakened position in nearby Djibouti.

— Martin

Deals

🇳🇬 Nigeria’s state oil company NNPC signed a deal on Tuesday to supply the Dangote Refinery with 100 million standard cubit feet of gas per day for its power generation. The deal covers an initial period of 10 years.

🇿🇦 Private equity firm African Infrastructure Investment Managers sold its 12.67% indirect stake in South Africa’s Bakwena Platinum Corridor Concession to Gaia Fund Managers for an undisclosed amount.

🇳🇬 Nigeria said it had signed a $1.2 billion contract with Chinese state-owned engineering firm CNCEC to revive a gas processing plant at a moribund aluminum smelter.

🇿🇦 Data center builder Teraco secured an 8 billion rand ($442 million) loan — arranged through Absa bank — to begin the construction of a 40 megawatt data center in Johannesburg that will be completed in 2026.

Tech

🇳🇬 Nigerian digital bank Moniepoint is reportedly in the process of seeking a commercial bank license in Nigeria, weeks after appointing a new chief financial officer and closing a $110 million fundraising round.

🇪🇹 West Data Group, a Hong Kong data center construction and investment company, has begun work on a 20 megawatt Bitcoin mining facility in Ethiopia. It follows a $250 million deal in February between the state-owned Ethiopian Investment Holdings and the company.

Telecoms

🇹🇩 Chad became the latest African nation to approve satellite internet provider Starlink to operate in the country, after three years of negotiations.

🇺🇬 MTN Uganda made its second interim dividend payment of 168 billion Uganda shillings ($46 million), following an improved financial performance in the nine months to Sept. 30.

🇿🇦 South African mobile operator Cell C said it is exploring partnership options with satellite providers to provide better connectivity for its customers.

Justice

🇪🇷 Dawit Isaak, the world’s longest-detained journalist who has been held in Eritrea without trial for 23 years, won a Swedish human rights prize for his commitment to freedom of expression.

Geopolitics

🇳🇬 Nigeria is seeking a $5 billion trade facility from Saudi Arabia to bolster capital for its economic programs, its presidency said. President Bola Tinubu held talks with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh on the sidelines of the Arab-Islamic Summit.

🇸🇳 The European Union will not renew a fishing agreement with Senegal signed in 2019. It comes after the bloc identified the West African country as a “non-cooperating country” in the fight against illegal fishing earlier this year.

Energy

🇿🇦 Johannesburg-based Sanari Capital invested $5 million in Energenic Holdings, a group that provides power solutions in more than 20 African countries.

Growing vegetables on living walls can improve food production in urban centers, purify the air, and reduce noise pollution, a new study suggests. Karen Botes, a University of Pretoria landscape architecture lecturer, compared traditional soil-based agriculture with growing crops on living walls, or a building’s facade. Botes identified seven traditional African vegetable species suitable for household food production in living wall systems: creeping foxglove, Indian borage, jute plant, pink ribbons, water mint, dwarf elephant’s food, and black-eyed pea. Botes concluded that using living walls to grow traditional African vegetables could improve local household food production. It could also help address climate change, urban heat islands, and urban microclimates.

Makan Delrahim, a top antitrust cop in Donald Trump’s first administration, has talked to the Trump transition team about running the Federal Trade Commission, Semafor’s Liz Hoffman and Shelby Talcott scooped. Delrahim’s track record in blocking some megamergers while supporting others “could bridge two Republican camps starkly divided over corporate competition,” they wrote.

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— Yinka, Alexis, Alexander Onukwue, Martin Siele, and Muchira Gachenge.