• D.C.
  • BXL
  • Lagos
  • Riyadh
  • Beijing
  • SG
  • D.C.
  • BXL
  • Lagos
Semafor Logo
  • Riyadh
  • Beijing
  • SG


In this edition, the CEOs of Zoom and Box discuss their differing views on how the technology will d͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
rotating globe
November 15, 2024
semafor

Technology

technology
Sign up for our free newsletters
 
Reed Albergotti
Reed Albergotti

Hi, and welcome back to Semafor Tech.

There’s a debate in Silicon Valley right now over the progress of large language models. As companies throw more compute power at training LLMs, they aren’t seeing enough performance gains to justify the extra cost.

This isn’t how things went in the leadup to GPT-4, OpenAI’s groundbreaking model. As compute increased, capabilities went up exponentially. This dynamic was given a term: “Scaling laws.”

You can call the current situation a “plateau.” The Information and Reuters have some great reporting on the subject. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman basically said this was going to happen in April of last year. And I’ve been writing about that possibility since ChatGPT burst onto the scene.

At the same time, just as this debate has flared up again, Altman and others, like Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, have become cheerleaders again, essentially guaranteeing that these so-called scaling laws will continue.

It should be noted that Altman and Amodei have almost a fiduciary duty to believe the trend will endure. They’ve taken billions of investment dollars that will be doomed if it doesn’t happen.

In this debate, nobody is wrong. Everybody I talk to acknowledges the current slump. At the same time, there’s every reason to believe researchers and engineers will figure out a way around it, as has happened every step of the way in the development of AI. The big question is how long it will take.

And if you believe Altman, Amodei and others, companies that exist today risk being leapfrogged. It was a similar dynamic at the beginning of the consumer internet. Just because a company built a website didn’t mean they were avoiding disruption.

Earlier this week, I spoke with Aaron Levie and Eric Yuan, co-founders and CEOs of Box and Zoom, respectively. Their strategies are similar, but the way they talked about the long-term outlook on AI differed, and embodied the current debate and tension. Read below for more.

Move Fast/Break Things

➚ MOVE FAST: Sunny outlook. China’s Lenovo boosted its global PC sales projections for 2025, aided by in-demand AI features. The mainland’s tech champions are capitalizing on the technology in other ways. Baidu unveiled its AI-powered smart glasses, which will compete with offerings by Meta and Snap.

➘ BREAK THINGS: Storm clouds. As one of its last major probes under the Biden administration, the Federal Trade Commission has Microsoft in its sights. The agency plans to investigate whether the software giant used anti-competitive tactics, like making products incompatible with rivals, to dominate the cloud market.

xecutive Chairman and CEO of Microsoft Corporation Satya Nadella attends a session during the 54th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos
Denis Balibouse/File Photo/Reuters
PostEmail
Reed Albergotti

A debate over our AI future

The CEOs of Box and Zoom at the BoxWorks Summit
Courtesy of Box

THE SCENE

While much of the AI hype has focused on consumer uses, Box CEO Aaron Levie and Zoom CEO Eric Yuan are among the company bosses scrambling to find where the technology will be really helpful: at work.

The two friends have a similarly rosy view of the way artificial intelligence will change the world, which has served their investors well this year. Each of their companies has boosted their market cap by 30% in 2024 as they’ve rolled out new generative AI products.

Both entrepreneurs, who talked to Semafor in a joint interview, have lived through and contributed to periods of massive technological disruption.

Box, founded nearly 20 years ago as a file sharing service, has been transforming itself into an AI company. And at Zoom, video calls and conferences are essentially unstructured data that the “Zoom AI Companion” can parse, generating summaries and suggesting action items and calendar entries.

Still, the founders of the two companies may be on the verge of experiencing the biggest tech revolution yet.

“This time, it’s different from other technology evolutions,” Yuan said. “We can’t imagine what’s going to happen. It’s essentially out of control compared to the internet or the mobile phone. It’s beyond our imagination.”

Levie, on the other hand, views the landscape from a more sober vantage point. “We’ve already had our Netscape moment. We’ve already had our iPhone moment. There was ChatGPT, and now we’re just in the rollout phase of how these technologies start to enter our life more and more,” he said.

Their views reflect this unique period in the tech industry, with Silicon Valley debating how AI will evolve in the coming years.

One view is that AI models are a kind of service that can be incorporated into every software product. Another is that AI capabilities will continue to evolve until they are so powerful that they upend current paradigms, potentially disrupting incumbents in ways they couldn’t imagine.

“For any new technology, if you do not feel scared, the potential is not powerful enough,” Yuan said. “You have to embrace that. There’s no other way around [it].”

Read on for Reed’s view on why we’ll look silly when we think about today’s AI in 10 years. →

PostEmail
What We’re Tracking
US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo in Tallinn in 2021
US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo. US Embassy Tallinn/Flickr

As part of a last effort to deploy funds from the CHIPS Act, the Biden administration finalized its $6.6 billion award to TSMC to expand its facilities in Arizona.

About $28 billion of the $39 billion in grant money has been budgeted, according to people familiar with the matter, but getting the money out the door has depended on the companies and the Commerce Department hashing out the exact terms. For example, government officials are still working on concluding Intel’s $8 billion award amid the chipmaker’s troubles.

While the CHIPS Act passed with bipartisan support and the Biden team expects continuity on the program, Donald Trump’s election victory means limited time to finalize funding under the current administration’s terms. Recent criticisms by Trump about the CHIPS Act may also be worrisome for recipient firms, even though the current agreements are binding.

TSMC is building three facilities in Pheonix — a $65 billion investment — to manufacture leading-edge chips often used in smartphones and data centers that power AI. Biden said Friday that it was “the largest foreign direct investment in a greenfield project in the history of the United States.”

PostEmail
Watchdogs
US President-elect Donald Trump
Jay Paul/Reuters

The incoming Trump team hasn’t said much about where they stand on AI policy except that Biden’s executive order on the technology would be repealed. A lobby group for leading software developers including OpenAI and Microsoft is hoping to shape future rules so that they encourage AI development rather than stifle it.

In a letter obtained by Semafor’s Morgan Chalfant, the BSA | The Software Alliance implored President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance to craft more streamlined AI governance across agencies and globally, and encourage an “open data agenda.”

The group also calls for a single national law that requires those developing high-risk AI to conduct impact assessments and abide by certain risk management programs.

The Software Alliance also highlighted efforts by the Biden administration that it wants to keep, such as an AI-research pilot program, and a risk management framework finalized a few months ago by Biden’s Commerce Department.

PostEmail
Ahem
Mark Zuckerberg
Manuel Orbegozo/File Photo/Reuters

Mark Zuckerberg’s got a new hobby: singing. On Wednesday, he released a slowed-down version of the 2002 rap hit Get Low, which he recorded with rapper T-Pain. The duo called themselves Z-Pain for the occasion.

In his version, Zuckerberg sings instead of rapping lyrics like “from the windows, to the walls,” and other profanity-riddled lines about a beautiful girl dancing.

The song holds memories for the Meta CEO and his wife Priscilla Chan. He wrote in an Instagram post: It was playing at a college party where the two first met 20 years ago, and they play it every year on their “dating anniversary.”

“So romantic,” Chan says in a video reacting to the song, laughing.

Zuckerberg has found himself a plethora of hobbies the past few years, from hydrofoiling to martial arts — as well as significantly changing his looks — in what some say is an attempt to get rid of his long-standing reputation as “robotic tech villain,” to appear more charismatic and authentic.

PostEmail
Semafor Spotlight
A graphic saying “A great read from Semafor Net Zero”Ali Zaidi speaking to Semafor’s Tim McDonnell on the sidelines of COP29 in Baku
National climate adviser Ali Zaidi speaking to Semafor’s Tim McDonnell in Baku.

Billions of dollars of investment in US clean tech factories could be stranded if the incoming Trump administration pares back the country’s climate policies, outgoing President Joe Biden’s national climate adviser told Semafor’s Tim McDonnell.

Ali Zaidi warned that domestic manufacturing, in particular, is at “a fragile inflection point” and that the changes to climate policy could cut new investments short.

For more on the energy transition under the incoming Trump administration, subscribe to Semafor’s Net Zero newsletter. →

PostEmail