Africa

1. Cancel culture
2. Inflation relief
3. Golden headache
4. Investment trends
5. Preparing to vote

Also, Sudan’s football team gives its nation a moment of “rare joy.”

Hello! Welcome to Semafor Africa, where we’re watching several mining stories unfold. They range from the strongarm tactics used by Mali’s military junta to extract $160 million from an Australian mining company, to the tragic standoff between illegal miners and authorities in South Africa. In case you haven’t followed it, the latter concerns hundreds — possibly even thousands — of illegal miners who might be trapped in a disused mine after trying to evade arrest.

It’s a reminder of the risks taken by young men desperate to make money, and it’s not just a South African problem. As I report below, illegal gold mining is booming in Ghana off the back of rising gold prices. Yaw Nsarkoh, a former Unilever executive, is just one of several people who told me the impact is being felt across Ghana’s economy. Aside from the loss of revenues due to smuggling, water contaminated by miners and the use of arable land affects raw inputs used by fast moving consumer goods companies. That’s just one of the many ways in which it affects the business environment.

Illegal mining provides many forms of employment; from those digging for precious metals, to drivers, and makeshift security guards. Governments need to work on formalizing unlicensed mining to capture lost revenue, prevent damage to the wider economy, and improve safety standards.

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Kenya cancels Adani deals after US indictment

Kenya’s government has canceled all public-private partnership contracts signed with subsidiaries of India’s Adani Group. It follows the indictment of billionaire Gautam Adani in New York on Wednesday.

President William Ruto announced controversial multimillion-dollar deals in the energy, transport and health sectors would be scrapped during his state of the nation address to parliament on Thursday. He cited the emergence of “credible information on corruption.”

The US Department of Justice has accused Adani of scheming to pay more than $250 million in bribes to Indian government officials to secure solar energy supply contracts, and lying to US investors to finance the project. Adani Group has denied the allegations.

Adani Energy Solutions last month signed a $736 million deal to build and operate Kenyan power infrastructure. And another subsidiary this year secured a $1.85 billion lease to upgrade and run the country’s largest airport in a 30-year concession. Both deals had been halted by legal challenges.

— Martin K.N Siele

South Africa’s inflation cools

South Africa’s annual inflation rate in October, the lowest it has been since June 2020. It was a sharp decline from 3.8% a month earlier, according to new data from the country’s statistics agency. The slowdown was attributed primarily to declining fuel prices — with petrol and diesel prices falling by 5.3% between September and October. Annual inflation for food and non-alcoholic beverages also fell to 3.6% in October after hovering around the 4.5-4.7% range for the past six months. South Africa’s central bank cut its main interest rate by 25 basis points on Thursday. It stressed that the global economic backdrop remains challenging, despite the fall in inflation.

Galamsey threatens Ghana’s economy

ACCRA, Ghana — A surge in illegal mining will be among the main challenges awaiting the winner of Ghana’s Dec. 7 presidential election. But the value of the illicit industry means there is likely to be little political will to stamp it out completely.

Illegal gold mining, known locally as “galamsey,” has spread across Ghana this year, driven by a historic rise in global gold prices. Unlicensed miners, often bankrolled by Chinese entrepreneurs, are encroaching on farmland. That’s stoking food inflation while the use of chemicals is contaminating water supplies.

Analysts say galamsey has contributed to the sharp fall in the production of cocoa in the world’s second largest producer of the crop. It is projected to be nearly 40% lower than the industry target.

The impact of galamsey is “huge economically, socially, and environmentally,” said Mavis Owusu-Gyamfi, CEO of the African Center for Economic Transformation think tank. She said farmers had complained of mercury poisoning their land and cited recent research findings that found chronic health problems and birth defects in areas where illegal mining is prevalent.

Equity dominates private investment

Private investment deals into Africa totalled $2.27 billion in the third quarter of 2024, according to data published by Lagos-based financial consultancy Stears. The deals include 73 transactions across growth equity, private equity, private debt, infrastructure financing, and mergers and acquisitions, the research firm said. Equity continues to dominate fundraising, with 75% of deal volume having an equity component. But the dynamics across regions and sectors differ. One in three deals in Central Africa — where the least number of deals were recorded in the quarter — involved debt financing, compared to 14% in North Africa.

Namibia to pick new president

Namibians will vote for a new president on Nov. 27, nine months after Hage Geingob died in office and was temporarily replaced by his Vice President Nangolo Mbumba.

The SWAPO party has governed the southern African country since independence in 1990. Its candidate this time is the current VP, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah (pictured), 72, who could become Namibia’s first female president.

Of the 14 other candidates, her main challenger could be Panduleni Itula, a former ruling party member who won 29% of the vote in 2019. He has campaigned on reducing unemployment — which stood at 19% last year — and fighting corruption.

The IMF projects that Namibia’s real GDP growth will slow to 3.1% this year but increase to 4.2% in 2025. SWAPO is betting that new oil and gas exploration will galvanize public support by boosting Namibia’s growth rate to 8%.

— Alexander Onukwue

Governance

🇲🇱 Mali’s ruling junta fired its civilian Prime Minister Choguel Maiga (pictured) and the government on Wednesday (Nov. 20). It came days after he criticized the military for a lack of clarity regarding an expected transition to civilian rule. The military has been in power since coups in 2020 and 2021.

Geopolitics

🇿🇦 South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said his country will use the G20 presidency, which it will assume in 2025, to focus on advancing inclusive economic growth, food security and artificial intelligence.

Deals

🇿🇦 South African insurer Sanlam will buy a 12.3% stake in asset management firm Ninety One for $276 million. Ninety One will manage $2 billion of Sanlam’s assets as part of the deal.

🇿🇦 Financial services company Lesaka Technologies will buy electricity metering and payments company Recharger for 507 million rands ($27.9 million).

🇦🇴 Spain’s Caixabank will work with Banco de Fomento Angola (BFA) to enable the Angolan lender to go public, its chief executive said on Tuesday. BFA is jointly owned by Angola’s state-owned mobile telecoms firm Unitel and Caixabank through its Portuguese unit.

Finance

🌍 The African Export-Import Bank raised $523 million (¥81.3 billion) after issuing its debut Japanese yen-denominated Samurai bond, the first by a multilateral bank in Africa since 2008.

🇰🇪 Kenya is set to receive a $200 million loan from the African Development Bank and is in talks with the World Bank for a new $750 million loan, a finance ministry official told Reuters.

🇷🇼 Rwanda’s central bank governor told lawmakers the bank would develop a framework with the nation’s Capital Market Authority to regulate cryptocurrency use by the first quarter of 2025.

🇬🇭 Ghanaian authorities are going after private pension fund managers who have been exploring offshore investment opportunities after the restructuring of 31 billion cedis ($1.95 billion) of their holdings. Sources told Reuters the government was concerned offshore investments could worsen pressure on the cedi.

Health

🇨🇩 The World Health Organization authorized the first mpox vaccine made by Japanese company KM Biologics for use in children aged over 1 as a single dose. It is expected to address rising cases across Africa, particularly DR Congo.

Tech

🇿🇦 Mama Money, a South African cross-border money transfer company, released a WhatsApp account management feature that enables its card holders to shop, withdraw and send money.

🇿🇦 Cryptocurrency company Yellow Card received a Crypto Asset Service Provider license from the Financial Sector Conduct Authority, South Africa’s financial services regulator.

Sudan’s qualification for the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) in Morocco is being hailed as a special moment of national pride and “rare joy” for the country, which has been locked in a devastating war for 19 months. Ranked 110th in the world by FIFA, Sudan qualified with a goalless draw against Angola on Monday. The team pulled this off despite having to play all their qualifying matches abroad and the domestic league being suspended.

The AFP reported that the streets of Port Sudan “came alive after the match, with car horns blaring and ecstatic fans waving Sudanese flags.” Sudan’s war has spawned the world’s largest humanitarian crisis, with more than 11 million people displaced and an estimated 150,000 killed.

Semafor’s Reed Albergotti sat down with Silicon Valley veteran and Palo Alto Networks CEO Nikesh Arora to discuss the tech industry’s changing relationship with the US government, how AI is going to change everything, and the future of cybersecurity.

“We’re all just waiting for the big reveal of when [AI] goes from just being able to tell you what it knows to being smart enough to infer things it doesn’t know. Can AI be Albert Einstein? Not yet. Can it be Marie Curie? Not yet. But the moment AI starts building curiosity, that’s the first step,” he said.

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— Yinka, Alexis, Alexander Onukwue, Martin Siele, and Muchira Gachenge.