Principals

1. Kissinger’s death
2. China investment screening sinks
3. GOP House majority narrows
4. House Republicans’ budget flexibility
5. New polling on Israel
6. Biden meets Angola’s Lourenço

PDB: Former Trump admin official testifies on China’s “chillingly effective” propaganda

Israel, Hamas extend truce by one day … Musk tells advertisers: ‘Go. Fuck. Yourself’ ... Ben Rhodes remembers Kissinger as a ‘hypocrite’

— edited by Benjy Sarlin, Jordan Weissmann and Morgan Chalfant

Kissinger was bridge to China

Henry Kissinger built the bridge between Washington and Beijing in 1972, and his death Wednesday at 100 further narrows the fraying relationship between the world’s great powers. Kissinger, one of Washington’s great Principals, was the defining American foreign policy figure of the Cold War, heeded and reviled from Moscow and Vietnam to Iran and Chile for his role in crafting American strategy. But he remained relevant in his last two decades as a central player in the intensifying China game, which was central to his writing and speaking as well as to his lucrative private consulting business. “Relations between China and the United States need not — and should not — become a zero-sum game,” he wrote in the 2011 book “On China.” That sentiment grew less popular, but Kissinger himself never faded. He met three times with President Trump, and with several of his predecessors (George W. Bush mourned him with a painting), though not with Joe Biden. But Kissinger was treated in China as living history, the only American to have worked with every leader from Mao to Xi. Xi and other top Chinese officials welcomed “old friend” Kissinger warmly to Beijing for his final trip this July, prompting a statement of flat regret from a White House spokesman: “It’s unfortunate that a private citizen can meet with the defense minister and have a communication and the United States can’t.” Reacting to his death, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin called Kissinger an “old friend and good friend of the Chinese people,” and a “pioneer and builder” of China-U.S. relations. He has no obvious successor in his singular role between the two powers.

On the U.S. side, long-prepared obituaries, tributes, and condemnations began appearing within minutes of the news of his passing. The Times and Post obituaries are monuments of the genre: David Sanger credits reporting from a Times colleague who died in 2010, while the Post byline is Thomas W. Lippman, who retired in 1999. Rolling Stone’s Spencer Ackerman offers the heated dissent: “Henry Kissinger, War Criminal Beloved by America’s Ruling Class, Finally Dies.”

— Ben Smith

Backlash likely sinks China investment screening bill

A bipartisan proposal to scrutinize certain U.S. private investments in China looks like it will drop from the annual defense policy bill, after running into objections from influential House Republicans. House Financial Services Committee Chairman Patrick McHenry, R-N.C. and several colleagues penned a letter arguing the proposed screening program would limit “Americans’ control, influence, and intelligence gathering in Chinese technology companies” and that export controls and sanctions are enough. A person familiar with the process told Semafor that Speaker Mike Johnson also opposes the legislation, which would kill the measure (a spokesperson for Johnson did not respond to a request for comment). Other House Republicans, like Reps. Mike Gallagher, R-Wis. and Michael McCaul, R-Texas, expressed support for the proposal from Sens. Bob Casey, D-Pa. and John Cornyn, R-Texas, which would screen investments in high-tech sectors — like AI and semiconductors — in China and other countries of concern. It passed the Senate overwhelmingly as part of its NDAA. McHenry has long expressed skepticism about the idea of screening outbound investments, and even threatened to block a similar White House effort that is currently being implemented by the Treasury Department.

— Morgan Chalfant

The GOP’s incredible shrinking majority

Republicans are already wincing at the micro-thin majority they’ll have to work with if the House kicks Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y. to the curb. “It’s a real concern. It’s inconvenient as hell,” Rep. John Duarte, R-Calif. told Semafor. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., warned that Republicans looking to boot the Long Islander are embracing a “bad strategy” if they care about passing their agenda.

The GOP currently has 222 House seats versus 213 for Democrats, which leaves them room to lose four members on votes. But the effort to expel Santos, which is widely expected to succeed, and the impending departure of Rep. Bill Johnson, R-Ohio, who is leaving to become president of Youngstown State University, could soon shrink that margin to two (the exact timing of Johnson’s exit is unclear; he’s promised to serve “several more months”). And though he said in October he had no plans to resign, some Republican members now expect former Speaker Kevin McCarthy to step down before the end of the year, according to Axios. (He reportedly told a donor he wanted to “get the hell out.”) If you thought the House was hard to manage now, imagine what it might look like if Republicans were left with just one spare vote.

— Kadia Goba

House Republicans signal openness to budget concessions

Republicans are suddenly starting to sound a bit more flexible about the budget. During a meeting with senators on Wednesday, House Speaker Mike Johnson told the room that if Congress can’t reach a new budget deal by Feb. 2, he’d try to avoid a full government shutdown with a continuing resolution extending current spending levels to the end of the fiscal year. The comments have already drawn fury from some conservatives, who have opposed the use of stopgap spending measures. But the hard right may be willing to make concessions of their own: House Freedom Caucus chair Scott Perry, R-Pa. told reporters that conservatives would no longer demand spending levels go below the $1.59 trillion debt ceiling deal negotiated with Democrats, removing an obstacle that has helped stymie their own party-line appropriations bills. “$1.59 trillion is too expensive for many of us, but we realize that $1.47 trillion is not going to happen,” Perry said. He added, however, that conservatives would still reject $54 billion worth of “side deals” that helped Democrats swallow the debt ceiling agreement. In other words, don’t rule out a shutdown yet, but it seems Republicans are giving themselves a little more room to negotiate.

Poll: U.S. public split on Israel’s actions in Gaza

Israel’s handling of its war in Gaza has split U.S. public opinion nearly down the middle, according to newly released polling from Gallup taken during the first three weeks of November. Fifty percent of Americans say they approve of the country’s military action against Hamas, which has decimated much of Gaza City, while 45% disapprove (and 5% aren’t sure). Not surprisingly, there’s a vast gap between parties (71% of Republicans approve, versus 36% of Democrats) and age groups (36% of 18- to 34-year-olds approve, compared with 63% of those over 55). Gallup isn’t the only pollster to find less than overwhelming support for Israel, either: In a Reuters/Ipsos survey earlier this month, just 32% of adults said the U.S. should back Israel, down from 41% in October.

Biden’s plans to counter China run through Angola

President Biden will host Angolan President João Lourenço today. A centerpiece of their conversation will be a major African infrastructure project at the heart of the Biden administration’s efforts to counter China’s influence, Semafor’s Morgan Chalfant writes. Backed by the U.S. and European Union, the Lobito Corridor is a complex rail project that will connect Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo to regional and global markets through Angola’s Lobito port. The project is viewed as especially important to unlocking access to sources of minerals needed to produce electric vehicles. “That’s going to be a major thoroughfare that cuts across the subregion,” Jeannine Scott, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told Semafor. Angola, like other African countries, has received funding from China for infrastructure projects in the past through China’s Belt and Road Initiative. But Angola has also increasingly shown a willingness to look elsewhere for financing of major projects. A State Department spokesperson said the U.S. is “encouraged by Angola’s efforts to attract quality investors” and “the success that U.S. firms have had in Angola.” Biden and Lourenço are expected to discuss broader economic growth and regional security, as well as a thornier topic: Angola’s democratic reforms.

Dec 5 | Principals Live with Mathias Döpfner | Virtual

Join Semafor’s Founding Editor-at-Large Steve Clemons and Axel Springer CEO Mathias Döpfner for a virtual conversation about the role of trade in autocracies. Döpfner’s latest book, The Trade Trap, argues that free trade has strengthened dictators while undermining a rules-based world order. RSVP to get the link to watch.

Dec 7 | Finding Common Ground on AI: A Bicoastal Exchange | Washington, D.C.

The East and West Coasts are talking about the future differently: On one coast, there is a mix of optimism and fear that AI will become too powerful and one day threaten humanity. On the other, AI is viewed as the latest tech invention that threatens to upend society. While Silicon Valley is reimagining a world with generative AI at the center, Washington is looking to reign it in. RSVP to join us in Washington D.C.

Dec 13 | The State of Made in America | Washington, D.C.

On Dec. 13, Join Semafor’s editors for a convening of the top voices and policy practitioners across government, labor, business and beyond to explore critical and timely debates around how manufacturing capacity, supply chain production, and trade policies are changing the American and global economy. RSVP to join us in Washington D.C.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: House Republicans are expected to move to a vote on formalizing an impeachment inquiry into President Biden later this month. Most Republicans in competitive districts “look ready to green-light the Biden probe.”

Playbook: Sen. Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala. is “eyeing an off-ramp” for his lengthy blockade of military promotions over the Pentagon’s abortion policy, though it’s not exactly clear what he plans to do yet.

The Early 202: “Fuck you,” House Speaker Kevin McCarthy reportedly responded to Donald Trump during a phone call several weeks after being ousted as speaker, when Trump blasted McCarthy for not expunging his impeachments and or endorsing his 2024 bid.

White House

• An American woman, Liat Beinin, was among hostages released by Hamas on Wednesday. “Jill and I are deeply gratified that she will soon be reunited with her three children and her father,” President Biden said in a statement confirming her release.
• President Biden and Vice President Harris, along with their spouses, will attend the National Christmas Tree Lighting tonight. Bring your jackets!
• Harris took a swipe at former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy after he said Biden “talked from cards” during the debt ceiling negotiations. “When anyone who has had the experience that he has most recently had, I don’t think he’s a judge of negotiations,” she said at the New York Times DealBook Summit.
• Harris will represent the U.S. at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai. Diplomats are hopeful that a deal on a climate-reparations fund could be agreed immediately, with announcements of monetary pledges following soon after.
• The EPA will require lead pipes across the country be replaced within 10 years. — NYT

Congress

• Former Trump administration official Miles Yu will tell lawmakers on the House select committee on China today that he believes China is waging a “chillingly effective” propaganda campaign against the U.S. and other countries, Semafor’s Morgan Chalfant reports.
• Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer delivered an emotional plea to the left to take Jewish concerns about antisemitism more seriously. He prefaced his floor speech by saying he was not trying to hector progressives about criticizing Israel’s government, but explain why “people that most liberal Jewish Americans felt previously were their ideological fellow travelers” had alarmed them with rhetoric defending, celebrating, or minimizing the Oct. 7 attacks. The full video is worth a watch.
• Border security talks continued to sound tense on Wednesday. “Gun control is a piece of cake compared to immigration reform,” Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., one of the Democratic negotiators, quipped to a reporter.
• In another ominous sign for President Biden’s big supplemental, House Speaker Mike Johnson suggested in a meeting with senators that House Republicans were unlikely to back a single package combining Ukraine and Israel aid with border security, and would prefer instead to vote on each piece individually.
• CEOs from Meta, X, TikTok, Snap, and Discord will testify on child safety at a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on Jan. 31.
• Rep. Lori Trahan, D-Mass. will replace Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minn. as co-chair of the Democratic Policy and Communications Committee.

Outside the Beltway

Kansas is redesigning its license plate after a new design triggered complaints for resembling the University of Missouri’s color scheme. — CNN

Economy

The Biden administration is poised to release rules saying that consumers can’t claim new electric vehicle tax credits if they buy cars that use battery materials from a “foreign entity of concern” — in other words, China. — WSJ

Foreign Policy

• The truce between Israel and Hamas has been extended by a day. Hamas will again release 10 hostages, in exchange for the release of 30 Palestinian prisoners.
• Javier Milei, Argentina’s radical libertarian president-elect, named a moderate former finance minister as his economy minister, the latest in a series of surprisingly conventional moves.

Courts

• Federal prosecutors charged an Indian national allegedly recruited by the Indian government to kill a Sikh activist in New York. The man was arrested in the Czech Republic.
• During oral arguments in Securities and Exchange Commission v. Jarkesy, the Supreme Court’s conservative bloc looked ready to curtail the SEC’s ability to bring enforcement actions before its own administrative law judges. It would be a big deal in the world of regulation, but not exactly the massive blow to the foundations of modern government some legal experts feared ahead of the case.

Media

Elon Musk said in a wild onstage interview with the New York Times’ Andrew Ross Sorkin that advertisers who have left X should “go fuck yourself — Go. Fuck. Yourself,” while also suggesting their “blackmail” might succeed in bankrupting the company.

2024

• Nikki Haley’s campaign is out with its first TV ad, saying the country needs a president with “moral clarity” to handle the “chaos in our streets and college campuses.” It’s part of a $10 million buy in Iowa and New Hampshire. — Politico
• JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon urged Democrats to prop up Nikki Haley to “give them a choice on the Republican side that might be better than Trump.”
• No Labels is opting for a virtual event instead of its planned Dallas convention next spring. — Axios

Blindspot

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, according to data from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy recommended Donald Trump select Nikki Haley as his running mate assuming he wins the nomination.

What the Right isn’t reading: Two Arizona Republicans were indicted on charges they interfered with the 2022 midterm election.

Principals Team

Editors: Benjy Sarlin, Jordan Weissmann, Morgan Chalfant

Editor-at-Large: Steve Clemons

Reporters: Kadia Goba, Joseph Zeballos-Roig, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

COP28 kicks off today in Dubai. Tim McDonnell, Semafor’s climate and energy editor will be there. Follow Semafor NetZero: Sign up here.

• With an estimated 70,000 attendees, COP 28 will be twice as large as any previous climate summit. A small handful will shape the outcome and the narrative.
• Republicans won a historic urban upset last week. Can they repeat it?
• The most tradable security in the world and a sign of the U.S.’s global economic might is badly out of favor — with serious consequences for taxpayers and financial markets.