Net Zero

1. Phase out gets phased out
2. Mr. Graves goes to Dubai
3. Adaptation watered down
4. Dodging the methane bill
5. ‘Bring us the cases’

Early concerns about COP29, and another big oil acquisition.

Phase out gets phased out

COP28’s most high-profile decision — whether to call for a phase out of fossil fuels — appears to have been decided, and not in the way many delegates were hoping. The latest draft of the summit’s final agreement removes any reference to either a “phase out” or “phase down” of fossil fuels. Instead, it “calls upon” countries to “reduce both consumption and production of fossil fuels.”

“The phase out has been phased out,” Li Shuo, director of the Asia Society think tank’s China Climate Hub, told reporters. Li also noted that the draft is free of bracketed text or alternative options, suggesting that the presidency may intend for it to be a “take it or leave it” deal. But the fight isn’t over yet. Cedric Schuster, Samoa’s environment minister and the lead negotiator for the Small Island States alliance, told reporters that the group is planning to spend the night working to block the draft, which requires the unanimous consent of all countries to be adopted.

It’s worth noting that the language, as it stands, would make this the first COP agreement to call for any kind of reduction of all fossil fuels; COP27 in Egypt last year called merely for the “phasedown of unabated coal power.” Still, with 2023 ranking as the warmest year on record, the current draft would batter COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber’s hopes of an ambitious deal.

Mr. Graves goes to Dubai

Congressional Republicans visited COP28 to let the world know they’re against even phasing down fossil fuels, let alone phasing them out. “Top line, I think it’s stupid,” Rep. Garret Graves (R-La.), told Semafor of the goal that for many negotiators here is the deciding factor for the summit’s success or failure. Graves was one of about a dozen members of Congress from both parties to visit the summit this weekend, whose views on fossil fuels ranged from stalwart industry defenders like Graves and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) to longtime climate hawks like Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.).

While the fossil fuel issue remains divisive, on a panel with Reps. John Curtis (R-Utah), Tim Walberg (R-Mich.), and Scott Peters (D-Calif.), Graves said that a bipartisan deal on the elusive goal of permitting reform remains within reach, and would likely have as its centerpiece restrictions on who has standing to sue over the environmental impacts of infrastructure projects, and how long after construction they have to file suits. The delegation met Saturday morning with climate envoy John Kerry, who advocated a similar policy, Graves said: “Anytime I’m saying the same thing as John Kerry, I think there’s a deal in there.” The biggest barrier, Peters warned, was progressives who are so dead-set on impeding fossil-fuel infrastructure that they gum up the works for renewable energy as well. “It should be climate advocates leading on this, but unfortunately we’re ass backwards,” he said. “We can’t solve the climate crisis without getting out of our own way.”

Adaptation watered down

The fossil fuel draft isn’t the only thing leaving watchdogs disappointed. A separate draft agreement on climate adaptation was released at the same time, stripped of many of the details that would make countries’ adaptation efforts as targeted toward a concrete goal as the emissions-cutting side of COP is targeted toward 1.5C. The adaptation argument “urges” countries to take steps to improve water access, build more climate-resilient infrastructure, and improve their agriculture systems, among other steps, but without specifying quantitative targets that had been included in earlier drafts. It also doesn’t include a specific numeric target for public finance fundraising that goes beyond the low target countries committed to two years ago at COP26 in Glasgow (doubling adaptation finance above 2019 levels by 2025). It also axes language that would have pushed middle-income countries like China and Saudi Arabia to contribute to adaptation finance fundraising, something the U.S. had pushed to include.

“If countries aren’t doing enough on adaptation,” said Sandeep Chamling Rai, senior advisor on adaptation at the World Wildlife Fund, “it just means more loss and damage.”

Dodging the methane bill

Fees that the top 25 natural gas companies may collectively owe in the U.S. by 2026 for methane pollution. The Inflation Reduction Act established a fee on methane emissions that starts at $900 per ton in 2024 and rises to $1,500 per ton by 2026. It’s potentially a powerful tool to drive reductions of a pernicious greenhouse gas that has long leaked and vented unchecked from the country’s gas infrastructure. But actual data from which to assess the fee is sparse. A new report from the climate-data firm Signal parsed a year’s worth of satellite measurements of methane from sources across the U.S., and aggregated those sources by company. It found that companies’ self-reported methane emissions last year were 12 times lower than reality — implying fees for the next few years of less than $500 million, rather than the figure above. The federal government needs to subject companies’ monitoring standards to more scrutiny, or the fee could be toothless.

‘Bring us the cases’

Some of the world’s top-ranking judges are ready to become climate activists. Justices from the supreme courts of Brazil, Belgium, Kenya, Nepal, Pakistan, and South Africa held talks here in Dubai on Sunday with leading environmental attorneys and law professors to discuss their plans for handling what has become a deluge of climate-related litigation. It’s the first time a large group of judges has met at a COP summit, and the tenor of the room was notably more sober and ponderous than the typical climate action meeting here. But existing law provides many avenues for courts to enforce faster emissions reductions and climate adaptation measures, the judges said, and they’re looking for opportunities to exercise them.

“There’s been a shift in the position of the judiciary lately,” said Luís Roberto Barroso, chief justice of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil. “The severity of climate change has made courts more proactive in this area. Faced with lack of government action, it’s the court that has to act.”

There are currently more than 2,000 climate-related lawsuits winding through courts in 55 countries, according to Columbia University data. Most target government agencies, alleging their failure to accelerate the energy transition violates their constituencies’ rights to health and safety. Some target fossil fuel companies, most notably a case in the Netherlands against Shell in which the court ordered the company to reduce its emissions in line with the Paris Agreement (the company appealed, and a decision is expected in 2024). One place where judges have a lot of influence in the outcome, Barroso said, is on deciding which cases can come to trial at all: “The first climate lawsuits that were filed were summarily dismissed on grounds of standing or procedural issues, but now many courts have moved ahead to making decisions on the merits.”

Still, he said, the judicial system is dependent on more fickle, political branches of government to actually carry out their rulings. In his case, for example, rulings on Amazon rainforest protection have sometimes fallen flat due to a lack of enforcement support from the military. Syed Mansoor Ali Shah, a justice on the Supreme Court of Pakistan, added that while cases are moving ahead there to hold the government accountable on failures to adapt to climate impacts, low-emissions nations like Pakistan don’t have much ability to enforce liability for companies or governments responsible for those impacts. One solution, he said, would be to create a global climate court similar to the International Criminal Court, to add a layer of transboundary oversight. In the meantime, said Luc Lavrysen, chief justice of the Constitutional Court of Belgium, “judges can only handle cases that are brought to us. So bring us the cases.”

COP28

• The pledges to slash greenhouse gasses announced at COP28 aren’t “nearly enough” to keep global heating to 1.5 degrees C, according to a report by the International Energy Agency. Although the pledges were insufficient — they would bridge only 30% of the gap to meet global climate goals — they were nonetheless a “positive” sign, the head of the IEA said.
• Despite threats during the campaign to pull Argentina out of the Paris Agreement, newly-inaugurated President Javier Milei vowed to keep his country as a member. Since winning the election last month, Milei has toned-down many of his most radical proposals, including on climate. Marcia Levaggi, a veteran climate diplomat, heads Argentina’s delegation at COP28.
• The United Nations set out a roadmap for the world to increase food production while cutting greenhouse gas emissions. Among the targets are cutting methane emissions from livestock by 25% and halving food waste, both by 2030. “We need to act to reduce hunger, and to stay within 1.5C,” the chief economist of the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation said. “This is about rebalancing global food systems.”

New Energy

• China launched the world’s first fourth-generation nuclear reactor, a key step in the nation’s ambition to ramp up its nuclear power production. The reactor, which uses fuel more efficiently, driving down costs, will produce as much as 200 megawatts. Beijing expects to produce 10% of the country’s power from nuclear by 2035, with the target almost doubling to 18% by 2060.

Fossil Fuels

• Occidental announced the acquisition of CrownRock, a West Texas oil producer based in the Permian basin, for almost $11 billion. The move follows a recent trend of consolidation in the oil and gas industry. Earlier this year, ExxonMobil and Chevron announced deals worth more than $110 billion combined to acquire competitors.

EVs

• Electric vehicles are expected to have cut down demand for oil by 1.8 million barrels per day — or close to 2% of the global supply — in 2023, BloombergNEF reported. Avoided consumption, which has risen sixfold since 2015, is expected to accelerate to as much as 12.4 million barrels a day by 2035.

Giorgi Gogia, associate director for Central Asia at Human Rights Watch.

• One of the most highly trafficked financial news sites is creating AI-generated stories that bear an uncanny resemblance to articles published by competitors.
• Who is Ghana’s masked presidential contender? Billboards featuring a masked man promising “leadership for the next generation” have popped up across major cities.
• Russian citizens say they are living relatively normal lives despite the imposition of worldwide sanctions, according to a new poll.