Principals

1. Another Capitol sex tape
2. Consumer sentiment up
3. Nikki Haley’s hometown challenge
4. Trump’s unlikely defenders
5. Americans sour on Israel’s war

PDB: Poll: Biden outperforms Whitmer, Newsom against Trump

Senate border negotiations go virtual … NBC News: The plan to stop Trump’s “Schedule F”… Semafor EIC Ben Smith: “Cover the primary!”

— edited by Benjy Sarlin, Jordan Weissmann and Morgan Chalfant

The House had its own sex tape scandal last year

Before the Senate sex tape scandal, the House quietly investigated allegations of X-rated Capitol videos as well, Kadia Goba scoops. The footage surfaced on Snapchat last year, and one extremely NSFW video viewed by Semafor contained identifiable trappings of Capitol complex offices — including carpeting, furniture, and even a congressional branded mousepad. Rep. Dan Newhouse’s, R-Wash. office confirmed to Semafor that they launched an independent investigation in 2022 after being informed of “purported, unbecoming behavior” by one of their senior staffers. The probe produced “no conclusive evidence,” however, while the staffer in question denied their involvement to Semafor and said they left on good terms for a new job outside D.C. later the same year.

Is the economic vibe shift upon us?

Wednesday offered another hint that America’s economic mood might be turning around, as the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence suddenly shot to its highest level since July. The rebound followed a similar finding by the University of Michigan earlier this month, which — along with weeks of declining gas prices, rising stocks, and a falling mortgage costs — may be perking up voters’ moods. (Notably, concerns about a recession next year also dropped.) “We have more work to do, but we’re on the right path and making progress executing President Biden’s agenda,” White House Council of Economic Advisors Chair Jared Bernstein said in a statement. Don’t call off the vibecession quite yet though: Consumer confidence surveys tend to be erratic from month to month, and what’s bounced up may well come back down. Based on a smoother, three-month rolling average, the Conference Board’s index is still down overall for the year.

Nikki Haley’s South Carolina challenge

Nikki Haley is surging in the polls in New Hampshire, which is increasingly looking like the thermal exhaust port to Donald Trump’s Death Star. Carrying the Star Wars analogy forward, the theory is that even though Trump leads Haley by over 50 points in some national polls of Republicans, a solid Iowa showing by the former governor could lead to an upset in New Hampshire — which could create an explosive chain reaction that causes Republicans all over the country to give the race another look. But as Semafor’s Shelby Talcott reports, even a best-case Haley scenario that sees her racing John McCain-style out of New Hampshire has a problem: South Carolina. The former president looks strong in polls, he has the support of most top electeds, and there’s less obvious room for Haley to grow. The campaign is optimistic her hometown familiarity will be an asset if the moment comes. And the fact that an allied Trump super PAC has begun running negative ads — something they have largely avoided to this point — suggests they’ve analyzed Haley’s potential and there is a danger in New Hampshire. “I think her proving viability in Iowa and then confirming it in New Hampshire just kicks the door wide open in South Carolina,” South Carolina GOP consultant Logan McVey said. “If you’re the Trump people, that’s what you have to be terrified of, right?”

Why Trump critics say he still belongs on the ballot

The fate of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign is in the hands of the U.S. Supreme Court, after the historic decision by Colorado’s top judges to disqualify him from the state’s ballot over his role in Jan. 6. Already, some of the president’s high-profile critics are predicting the justices will rule in his favor — or all but begging them to. Ty Cobb, Trump’s former White House attorney turned regular CNN talking head, predicted the court could break 9-0 for the former president, because “the law is clear.” How so? Colorado’s justices ruled Trump ineligible for the White House under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, which explicitly bans individuals guilty of “insurrection” from offices such as the House or Senate, but does not mention the presidency. Could it just be a sloppy omission? Not so, writes Harvard professor Lawrence Lessig at Slate. The 14th Amendment’s framers, he argues, had “an obvious reason” not to include the White House under the clause — namely, to avoid the chaos of individual states trying to throw a presidential race. (Notably, Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick threatened to toss Biden from his state’s ballot over immigration on Wednesday.) Even if there’s room to debate the law, New York Magazine’s Jonathan Chait argues that the justices should veer on the side of letting voters decide, lest the country be torn apart by the backlash to removing Trump. “I suspect the Supreme Court — which is more a political body than a legal body in major issues like this — will blanch at taking such a step, and I think that judgment would be correct,” he writes.

U.S. support for Israel’s war flags

U.S. enthusiasm for Israel’s war in Gaza appears to be softening on Capitol Hill and beyond. A Wednesday Quinnipiac poll found that Americans are now split roughly even on whether to send the country additional military support, with 45% in favor and 46% opposed. It’s a dramatic reversal from last month’s 54% to 39% margin. On Monday, meanwhile, a bloc of six intelligence community-aligned House Democrats wrote a letter to President Biden saying they are “deeply concerned” about Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s military strategy. “The mounting civilian death toll in Gaza and humanitarian crisis are unacceptable and not in line with American interests,” it stated. Among others, the signers included Reps. Abigail Spanberger, D-Va. and Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., two prominent former CIA officers who represent frontline districts. (Slotkin is also running for Senate.) The letter was a telling sign that discomfort with Israel’s approach has stretched well beyond left-wing corners of Congress. The Israeli Defense Forces announced Monday that it would soon wrap up its offensive in northern Gaza, but would stretch its assault into new areas. On the Palestinian side, the Wall Street Journal reports that some Hamas factions are beginning to discuss post-war governance options in Gaza — that may not include them.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Remember Congress’ quest to return to regular order on the budget? It’s not going so great, nor does the New Year look especially promising when it comes to avoiding another stopgap spending bill.

Playbook: The Washington Post’s push for 240 buyouts as a cost-cutting measure was haphazardly carried out, staff complain, resulting in more people leaving the paper than requested — including valued editors and reporters who fit into management’s long-term plans.

The Early 202: Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md. predicts the Supreme Court will allow Trump to be on the ballot even as he personally celebrated the Colorado court decision.

Axios: The Supreme Court “may have no real way to avoid a starring role in the 2024 campaign” given the multiple Trump-related cases reaching their doorstep simultaneously.

White House

President Biden weighed in on the all-important question of whether Donald Trump is an insurrectionist. “It’s self-evident. You saw it all. Now whether the 14th Amendment applies, I’ll let the court make that decision,” he said in Wisconsin. “But he certainly supported an insurrection. No question about it. None. Zero.”

Congress

The Senate’s bipartisan border negotiations are going virtual starting today, after the chamber adjourned for the year without a deal. “You can go buy your Christmas gifts now,” Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz. told reporters on Tuesday, who’ve been relentlessly staking out the talks. Schumer said discussions would continue “around the clock” until an agreement is struck. “We will not abandon our principles on the border,” he said.

(Sort of) Outside the Beltway

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin is proposing to eliminate the state’s car tax in his latest budget, calling it “the most hated tax in Virginia.”

Foreign Policy

Venezuela turned over to U.S. custody a former Navy contractor known as “Fat Leonard” in a prisoner swap involving the release of 10 other jailed Americans and a close ally of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Leonard Francis, a Malaysian businessman, is at the center of a Navy bribery scandal and had escaped house arrest last year shortly before his criminal sentencing.

Economy

• Paging Lina Khan: The CEOs of Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount reportedly discussed a potential merger over lunch — a deal would bring together the Max and Paramount+ plus streaming services to more easily compete with Netflix. (Call it crossing the streams.)
• Stocks finally snapped their winning streak Wednesday. But don’t fret about your 401(k): Plenty of analysts who nailed this year’s rebound are feeling bullish about 2024 (assuming the Fed cuts). — Bloomberg

Polls

Polls suggesting a generic Democrat would trounce Donald Trump have fed daydreams about President Biden stepping aside to let a younger, popular governor like Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer run in his place. A YouGov/Yahoo News poll this week offers a rude wakeup call: It shows Biden tied with Trump at 44% apiece. But the president outperforms both Whitmer and California Gov. Gavin Newsom. Incumbency (or name ID) still counts for something.

Courts

In other Trump legal news, the former president’s lawyers asked the U.S. Supreme Court on Wednesday not to fast-track arguments about whether the candidate has criminal immunity over his involvement in Jan. 6. Trump’s team argues that he is protected from prosecution because he was acting in his capacity as president at the time. Special counsel Jack Smith has asked the high court to resolve the case, rather than requiring an appeal to the D.C. Circuit first.

2024

• On Wednesday, Joe Biden’s campaign posted a graphic to X headlined “TRUMP PARROTS HITLER,” pairing several of the former president’s past comments to the Nazi dictator’s. The inventor of Godwin’s law apparently approves.
• In other comms news: The president is sticking to his “Bidenomics” messaging, even if voters still aren’t loving it. — Wall Street Journal

Media

The American media, bending over backwards to cover the high stakes of the 2024 general election, is helping Donald Trump walk to a primary victory, Semafor editor-in-chief Ben Smith writes: “Two cheers for hacky political reporting! Cover the primary!”

Blindspot

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, according to data from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: A federal judge temporarily blocked Biden administration immigration officials from removing razor wire fencing along the U.S.-Mexico border in Texas.

What the Right isn’t reading: A Jan. 6 rioter who had been identified to the FBI by a woman who found him on Bumble pleaded guilty to assaulting officers during the attack on the U.S. Capitol.

Principals Team

Editors: Benjy Sarlin, Jordan Weissmann, Morgan Chalfant

Editor-at-Large: Steve Clemons

Reporters: Kadia Goba, Joseph Zeballos-Roig, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

Jay Solomon is Semafor’s Global Security Editor

• Despite starting his career in artificial intelligence and staying on top of the latest developments, Meta’s CTO says the latest generative AI craze still caught the company by surprise.
• The COP28 agreement says annual global greenhouse emissions need to peak by 2025 to stay within the global warming limit of 1.5 C. That means for the biggest emitters, 2024 will be a critical turning point for the energy transition.
• There’s no shortage of examples of how combining generative AI and journalism can go wrong — but how can it go right? The trick may be to make AI know less.