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In today’s edition, we have predictions on where the generative AI craze will go next and other thou͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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December 22, 2023
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Technology

Technology
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Reed Albergotti
Reed Albergotti

Hi, and welcome back to Semafor Tech.

It’s been a fantastic year to cover the industry. It feels like we’ve made a full transition from the era dominated by smartphone-enabled media and commerce to a new one, where the promise of software automation touches every human endeavor, from business to basic science. Though, admittedly, some familiar people and companies are driving the changes.

Semafor, after a great first year, is also growing and evolving. It means so much to Louise and I to hear from readers who’ve enjoyed our tech coverage and have found it a valuable addition to their media diets. Next year, we’ll be bringing on a new technology reporter (job description here) to help us bring you great scoops and analysis.

Feel free to reach out if you’re interested in the role or know someone who might be (you can reply to this email). And some related news: Louise is taking on an exciting new role at Semafor next year that will take advantage of her passion for international affairs. So keep an eye out for news on that front, too.

As we head into the new year, we have some predictions below on what we might see in the tech industry. But we’re also interested in what you think. Let us know where we’re right or totally off base.

Plus, a programming note: We will be off next Wednesday. Have a great holiday!

Move Fast/Break Things

MOVE FAST: Profit streams. E-commerce investments appear to be paying off in China. TikTok parent ByteDance’s sales reportedly surged 30% this year to over $110 billion, putting it in the same arena as Meta. And China’s versions of Instagram, Xiaohongshu, could make $500 million in profit in 2023.

➘ BREAK THINGS: Transportation schemes. Hyperloop One is shutting down after the startup failed to realize Elon Musk’s vision of creating a high-speed tunnel network. Meanwhile, electric scooter startup Bird, once valued at $2.5 billion, has filed for bankruptcy.

Getty Images/David Becker
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Semafor Stat

Amount Anthropic is aiming to raise as part of its latest investment round, a sign of how much capital AI startups need to stay competitive. It would value two-year old Anthropic at up to $18.4 billion, according to CNBC. The company has already raised some $7 billion this year from investors betting its Claude chatbot will prove to be a formidable competitor to OpenAI’s ChatGPT.

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Reed Albergotti and Louise Matsakis

2024 Predictions

This year, the world woke up to the possibilities of generative AI. Yet, what most people know about the technology amounts to dipping their toes in the water.

Next year will be the moment when every industry begins to implement it in meaningful ways. Perhaps as early as mid-2024, we will start to see user interfaces change from clicking and typing to simply talking, or at least using natural language commands.

In some scenarios, large language models will be capable of acting as our “agents,” completing multistep tasks that go across applications and platforms.

Consumers will soon come to expect AI in almost all products, and companies that empower employees with the best AI-enabled tools will thrive. Those are just some of our predictions for the new year. Read on for more.

Drug discovery. The use of AI in this field will make bigger headlines. For the past couple of years, money, and more importantly, AI talent, has been pouring into the biotech space. We will start to see new drugs and treatments enter the development pipeline. The groundwork will continue to be laid for major breakthroughs on the level of the discovery of penicillin about 100 years ago.

Computer-brain interfaces. They will make new strides toward treating people with major, debilitating diseases. Startups like Synchron, Neuralink, Precision Neuroscience, Motif Neurotech, and others are pushing the technology forward as rapidly as possible. And large language models are also helping translate signals from the brain into language, speeding up the process even further.

Reuters/NurPhoto/Jonathan Raa

AI safety. Worrying about an AI-fueled apocalypse went from a fringe idea to a mainstream philosophy this year. Talking points cited by well-funded AI safety groups reached the highest halls of power in Washington, London, and Beijing. In 2024, we’ll see whether that influence actually translates into policy. Regulators will spend more time tackling present-day AI harms, but expect a number of new measures safeguarding against potential existential risks, such as systems for monitoring who is building the most powerful models.

China tech. Despite a sluggish economy and new U.S. trade restrictions, China’s tech industry is still humming along. Homegrown e-commerce giants like Temu are making a killing abroad, while fast fashion juggernaut Shein is planning what could be one of the biggest IPOs of 2024. But Washington will keep finding ways to undercut China’s tech prowess. One of the biggest flashpoints next year will be over Chinese electric vehicles and whether they can be sold in the European Union and other overseas markets.

Quantum computing. Practical systems will begin to come into focus. Efforts by companies like IBM, Microsoft, and PsiQuantum to turn the technology from proof–of-concept to usability are underway, and we’ll see some promising developments on that front, which will energize the field.

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Release Notes

Reuters/Loren Elliott
  • Apple will stop selling the latest versions of its Apple Watch in the United States on Sunday in response to a patent dispute. The U.S. International Trade Commission banned the company from importing the devices in October after ruling it had infringed on patents held by medical device maker Masimo.
  • Substack said it won’t demonetize or remove content supporting Nazis and white nationalist ideology. Over 200 newsletter writers asked the company to explain why it allowed such material on its platform; co-founder Hamish McKenzie responded by arguing that censorship doesn’t make extreme views go away.
  • OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s cryptocurrency startup Worldcoin has suspended its eyeball-scanning service in India, Brazil, and France. The company wants to create a global identity system based on biometric data, but it keeps running into regulatory issues.
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Watchdogs

White House warnings about Nippon Steel’s $14.9 billion bid for U.S. Steel have important implications for the tech industry, showing skepticism of foreign deals extends beyond China. “[President Biden] believes the purchase of this iconic American-owned company by a foreign entity — even one from a close ally — appears to deserve serious scrutiny,” National Economic Director Lael Brainard said yesterday in rare comments about a specific acquisition.

As the AI race draws investors far and wide, U.S. friends like the U.K. and Europe can expect a rocky reception when it comes to certain American firms, with every country for itself.

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Hot on Semafor
  • Despite starting his career in artificial intelligence and staying on top of the latest developments, Meta’s CTO says the latest generative AI craze still caught the company by surprise.
  • Semafor asked experts for their forecasts in real estate, dealmaking, antitrust enforcement, and more.
  • Nikki Haley is surging in New Hampshire, but her home state might be Donald Trump’s firewall. South Carolina made her; can it unmake her?
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