Principals

In our first edition of 2025, Semafor reporters unpack what they’re closely watching in the new year.

1. The Republican agenda
2. Trump’s governing style
3. GOP dissenters
4. Democrats’ future
5. Trump’s foreign policy
6. Tech, biz moves
7. Media battles in DC

PDB: FBI doesn’t believe New Orleans attacker acted alone

DC police are stepping up security … Former President Jimmy Carter will lie in state from Jan. 7 to Jan. 9 … WSJ: TikTok creators aren’t acting like the app will be banned

Can Republicans get their agenda passed?

Republicans are reclaiming congressional majorities alongside President-elect Donald Trump with plans to do big party-line bills, just like in 2017. There’s a big difference, though: They’ve got a much smaller House majority this time, and their 53 Senate seats span the ideological spectrum. That means their top priorities of border funding, new energy leases and extending tax cuts are all possible, but it will be excruciating to get there. That pain was previewed in December’s government funding debate, the chaos from which is likely to play out again and again on must-pass legislation to raise the debt ceiling and fund the government. Republicans will have to find a new strain of unity to keep things on the rails, while also confirming Trump’s Cabinet and pushing through his legislative agenda with little margin for error.

— Burgess Everett

How Trump 2.0 operates

Trump’s governing style is going to be one of the most determinative factors as his party pursues ambitious plans for his first 100 days in office and he seeks to dramatically reshape federal agencies. Historically, Trump has wielded his bully pulpit aggressively and often: This time around, Republicans are emboldened by his win and more prepared heading into the Oval Office. That confidence, combined with the team of loyalists Trump has kept by his side, suggests the president-elect will be relentless in his pace — and, just like in his first term, unafraid to get rid of dissenters and call out lawmakers who aren’t getting on board. Still, his endorsement of Mike Johnson in the House speaker race indicates a practical bent. And expect there to be new hurdles for Trump, particularly given that some of those same loyalists have different views on issues they’ll now be expected to work together on.

— Shelby Talcott

Republicans who will be headaches for Trump

Trump will have a fleet of loyalists in next year’s Congress — but not everyone will fall in line. And it only takes a couple of House Republicans to tank a bill given their razor-thin majority. Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, who has considerable sway in the Freedom Caucus, warned he’ll oppose renewing Trump’s 2017 tax bill without significant spending cuts. Meanwhile, moderate Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., has threatened to oppose Trump’s tax extension if there’s no increase in the cap on state and local tax deductions. And one can never underestimate libertarian Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky. On the Senate side, former GOP leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., is preparing a broadside against the isolationist tendencies of some Trump allies. Sens. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, and Susan Collins, R-Maine, have previously opposed Trump on policy, but the latter is up for reelection in 2026, so it’s unclear how much she’ll buck her party.

— Kadia Goba

Where Democrats go from here

Democrats fit roughly into two schools of thought right now: Those who expect the new GOP trifecta to fumble its power away to them, and those who think they can’t win without serious changes. The race for DNC chair, which ends on Feb. 1, is largely about those questions, and the victory will be focused on winning every down-ballot race it can; if that includes any of the special elections to replace Trump cabinet members, the party will be in good shape. Democrats in D.C. and state houses are generally waiting for Trump to screw something up or make an unpopular move that he didn’t run on, like slashing health care spending. Harder to track, but also important: Which of the liberal groups that thrived in Trump’s first term now discover the party’s donors don’t want to help them anymore.

— David Weigel

Trump’s Mideast and Ukraine moves

Trump’s foreign policy moves in the Middle East and Europe might have the greatest chance of dividing the GOP, pitting more traditional hawks against the new right. Absent a major breakthrough by the Biden administration, Trump will inherit the ongoing war in Gaza, and he’s signaled he’ll try to force Hamas to release its remaining hostages by threatening harsh consequences. He may also seek to withdraw US troops from Syria, placing him on a collision course with the Republican establishment. And the president-elect has tapped Keith Kellogg to search for a deal to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, which could involve conditioning future US military support on Ukraine entering peace negotiations (which might make hawks uncomfortable). Trump has recently sounded out European leaders on the Ukraine war, and Kellogg is planning an early January trip to Kyiv.

— Morgan Chalfant

DC’s approach to tech, business

Get ready for Donald Trump to have a love-hate relationship with the business community. He’s poised to embrace an expansive deregulation agenda that businesses love, while threatening tariffs on China, Mexico, Canada and Europe that will complicate life for many companies and rattle the stock market. That’s why executives are already pushing to soften his stance on tariffs. They’ll try to find new allies this year in French Hill and Scott Bessent. Trump’s approach to the tech industry could get particularly interesting, as top executives try to bend his ear and Elon Musk enjoys outsized attention. Pay close attention to how Musk tries to influence Trump and Republicans on artificial intelligence and immigration, particularly after MAGA’s holiday-week clash over visas, and how Trump handles a looming TikTok ban, which he has asked the Supreme Court to delay.

— Morgan Chalfant

The media competes for Washington

Washington is the biggest story in the world and news outlets are competing hard for scoops and talent. Politico’s once-dominant Playbook franchise, facing competition from the field of morning newsletters (thank you for reading this one!) is considering bringing UK editor Jack Blanchard over from London, where Playbook is more like the old-fashioned, politically-neutral tipsheet. One potential hitch, amid Republican debates over skilled immigrant labor: Getting him a visa. The consideration of a new Playbook author comes amid journalistic musical chairs amid frustration in Politico’s DC HQ, as well as the bureaus of some of its competitors. The Wall Street Journal has hired Politico’s congressional reporter Olivia Beavers and trade reporter Gavin Bade, according to two people with knowledge of the situation, joining Trump-focused reporter Meridith McGraw. The Atlantic hired two top writers from the tumultuous Washington Post, while the Post poached two of the Journal’s reporters in December, and Politico picked up NBC’s Dasha Burns to cover the Trump White House.

— Max Tani

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: The deadly attack in New Orleans is spurring Republican calls to expedite confirmation of Trump’s national security nominees.

Blindspot

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: The Department of Justice’s inspector general said three senior officials leaked details about investigations before November’s election.

What the Right isn’t reading: Dartmouth’s men’s basketball team dropped its unionization drive before Republicans take control of the National Labor Relations Board.

White House

• Nippon Steel offered to give the US government a veto over any production cuts at US Steel to win over President Biden’s approval for its takeover of the American steelmaker. — WaPo

Congress

• Donald Trump told reporters that he would make calls on Mike Johnson’s behalf ahead of the Friday House speaker election.
• The House rules package that’s set for a vote after the speaker election would make it harder to fire a speaker and would dissolve the chamber’s diversity office.

Transition

• Donald Trump says he plans to attend next week’s funeral in Washington for former President Jimmy Carter.
• Trump will hold a rally in Washington on Jan. 19, the day before his inauguration. — CBS

Outside the Beltway

• Most of Puerto Rico saw its power restored on Wednesday after a massive New Year’s Eve blackout.

Business

• US port workers are threatening to strike on Jan. 15 over protections against automation.

Foreign Policy

• Russian gas exports to Europe through Ukraine have ended.

Courts

• Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts said the US judiciary’s independence faces threats ranging from politicians who accuse judges of being partisans to violent attacks by angry litigants.
• A military appeals court rejected Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s attempt to toss plea deals for accused 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and two other defendants.

National Security

• The FBI said it does not believe the perpetrator of the deadly New Year’s Eve car attack in New Orleans, who showed affinity for the Islamic State, acted alone.
• The explosion of a Tesla Cybertruck outside the Trump Hotel in Las Vegas is also being investigated as a possible act of terrorism by the FBI.

Media

• The Palestinian Authority suspended Al Jazeera from operating in the West Bank.
• Director and actor Justin Baldoni filed a $250 million libel lawsuit against the New York Times for a story about actress Blake Lively’s allegations of sexual harassment and relation against him. The Times said it stands by its reporting.

Principals Team

Editors: Elana Schor, Morgan Chalfant

Reporters: Burgess Everett, Kadia Goba, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

Shelby Talcott will be covering the Trump administration for Semafor.

According to financial disclosures, newly elected members of Congress own between $3.8 and $9.1 million in key tech stocks, Semafor’s Rachyl Jones reported. Though divestment is not a requirement for lawmakers, Joe Biden said in a recent interview that “nobody in the Congress should be able to make money in the stock market while they’re in the Congress.”